Another busy day of racing, with Flat race meetings at Chester, Nottingham and Lingfield in the afternoon, and at Ascot, Ripon, and Hamilton in the evening. There is also an evening jumps race meeting at Aintree plus another day at Punchestown in Ireland.
From my Horse Alert list, at Chester there is Pintura (1:45), Glens Diamond (2:20), and Mr Macattack (4:40). I feel Pintura is better with some “give” in the ground, and as he also likes to be held up and come with a run he’ll need luck on his side in this race of 16 starters, even with a decent draw (stall 5). Current odds of 9/2 look skinny to me, and I’m not interested.
However, GLEN’S DIAMOND impressed me a lot when winning LTO, when displaying an ability to quicken off a fast pace. He looks like a decent 3yo in the making, and should prove to be a lot better than his current OR98 rating. The going (good-to-firm) and trip will suit him, whereas the fav Maqaraat has it all to prove. With The Paddyman and Tinkertown exposed (and not good enough) and Laajooj not looking good enough, GLEN’S DIAMOND looks a solid wager. Last night when I wrote this column, odds of 3/1 were available with a couple of bookmakers (Paddy Power & Stan James), but this morning the best available is 11/4.
In my opinion, given the form he’s shown on the track LTO, and that he’s shown that a performance of 110+ is within his grasp, GLEN’S DIAMOND should be the fav for this race, and I reckon he should be 7/4 with Maqaraat at 100/30.
As for Mr Macattack in the 4:40, he’s not been suited by Chester in two previous visits, so he’s one for another day, especially if it’s a straight 7-furlongs (eg Leicester).
At Nottingham, my Horse Alert List has Misrepresent (3:40), and Frontline Phantom (4:15). Misrepresent is entered for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next month, and she ran-on tremendously well in her racecourse debut having started-off very “green”. If connections are serious about her ability at home to warrant a Group 1 entry, then this maiden should be a walk in the park. FRONTLINE PHANTOM should be well-up to winning off OR66 given he won (effectively) off OR70 LTO (was running from 4lb out of the handicap). However, the odds will be very small indeed.
At Ascot, from my Horse Alert List runs BUZZ LAW (5:20), which is another horse from the stable of Mrs K Burke who is also responsible for FRONTLINE PHANTOM. This race looks a very competitive handicap and will be the focus analysis post-race.
Chester 2:20, GLEN’S DIAMOND, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Paddy Power, William Hill & Bet365, all best odds guaranteed)
Total Stake = 2pts
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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 6 May 2011
Diamond in the Dee
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GLEN'S DIAMOND wins in impressive fashion at an SP of 2/1 - remember I advised him at 11/4 at 8:00am this morning (he was 3/1 last night).ReplyDelete
The 2pts win wager has resulted in 5.50pts profit for the blog.
Nice winner Ian. I see Chiefdom Prince is out tomorrow currently 5/1 with b365.ReplyDelete
Well done Ian with that winner today. Some interesting trainers stats you've produced there too. You make a good point that it's not always about strike rate, level stakes profit is important as a filter too.ReplyDelete