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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday 3 May 2011

SIZING EUROPE to confirm superiority

There are a few Flat Racing meetings at Bath, Catterick, and Newcastle; and a couple of “jump” meetings at Exeter and Fakenham. Nothing of interest at Bath, ditto at Catterick. I was hoping Newcastle might provide an opportunity, but no; by far the best racing of the day comes from Punchestown in Ireland – and it’s over the jumps.

Yesterday’s blog posting was a bit late in the day, as I travelled up from the South-East to Liverpool during the day to visit family for the week. I should be at Aintree this Friday evening – so if you’re going, give me a shout on twitter.

There are 2 great races at Punchestown; the Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f and the Champion Chase over 2 mile. In the novice chase, the race hangs on the jumping ability of Quito De La Roque. I was on him LTO and he provided the blog with a great winning wager at Aintree, but this time I’m tempted to consider another – THEGREATJOHNBROWNE. When they last met, there was only a couple of lengths between them and that day it was clear that the stamina of THEGREATJOHNBROWNE waned in the heavy going. He’s been rested since then, whereas all the others have had busy campaigns, and this “good” going could be the making of him. Even so, he still has to prove himself over this trip and on the going, but the 11/2 looks tempting and if longer odds become available then I'll take advantage.

It is hard to see any of the opposition lowering the colours of SIZING EUROPE in the Champion Chase. It will require a herculean effort, or a huge dose of bad luck affecting the favourite. Based on the festival result, SIZING EUROPE should be odds-on for this, I’d say 4/5 with Big Zeb at 11/4. As such, odds of 2/1 available this morning look very generous indeed. The only doubt is that last season after winning the Arkle, SIZING EUROPE could only manage 3rd in this race behind Golden Silver.

Yesterday, I read that Timeform have rated FRANKEL at 142 behind only Sea Bird II (144), Brigadier Gerard (143) and Tudor Minstrel (143). For me, ratings are only half the story (maybe less than that) and it has to be remembered that the most recent of those 3 horses, Brigadier Gerard, won Group 1 races at a mile, 10-furlongs and 12-furlongs and on all sorts of going. As such, I feel FRANKEL has a bit to prove to be compared with those greats of old just yet. He needs another Group 1 win under his belt, at the very least.

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