No selections today, despite the huge amount of racing going on. As I advised yesterday, I am being patient and awaiting a wagering opportunity to recoup current losses (approx 7pts) and bring the blog back into a profit situation.
In response to a request, I’ve taken a look the trainers on the Flat (turf) to explore whether it is worth following any in particular this summer. My personal thoughts generally are that trainers (like all humans) are creatures of habit. As such, they have their favourite tracks, and profitable periods occur during the season when their methods are working to an optimum. One angle that I have used for a long period (since 2002) is to pay attention to trainers in form. From the trainer statistics issued daily on Sporting Life’s website, I prepare a list of trainers who have achieved at least a 40% strikerate “win & place” with all runners in the previous 14-days – the only proviso being that the trainer should have won at least 3 races in that period. This (at the height of summer) will produce a daily list of 15 to 20 trainers who are “in form”. From that list, I pay particular attention to trainers who have just one runner from their stable on that day, or have sent a horse over 150 miles for a race (while sending others to a closer track), or have a high strikerate of winners at a track (ie. 20% plus). As such, this is a constantly moving list of trainers who go in and out of form. I use this to vary the amount that I stake on a wager, so if an in-form trainer has a single runner at a track over 150 miles from his stable and the trainer has a high strikerate at that track, then that horse will have my maximum wager on it.
Individual trainers that I follow include:
John GOSDEN: 2010 stats 74 wins from 384 runners (19%)
Gosden regularly hits his peak form in the months of July, August and September.
2007 win-to-runs: July, 9 – 37; Aug, 11 – 67; Sept, 11 – 54
2008 WTR: July, 13 – 73; Aug, 14 – 57; Sept, 17 – 64
2009 WTR: July, 11 – 64; Aug, 9 – 55; Sept, 6 – 50
2010 WTR: July, 7 – 47; Aug, 24 -70; Sept, 22 – 100
In the past 4 seasons in those months, Gosden has averaged 20.90% winners-to-runners (154 from 738) and even in 2009 which was comparatively poor, 15.4% of his runners won. His best month is August (56 from 268, 23.3%). Trips North, up the A1, should be noted; Thirsk (2 from 6), Pontefract (5 from 19), Newcastle (5 from 19), Doncaster (20 from 96), and Beverley (2 from 5) show that. Pay attention to his 4yo+ handicappers (20 from 107, £52.28 profit to a £1).
One of my favourite trainers was Mick JARVIS, but he’s now retired and the license has been taken over by his assistant Roger Varian, and we’ll have to see how his methods affect the strikerate at that stable this season.
Luca CUMANI, is another favourite of mine. He is not as consistent as Gosden but in the period June to September (inclusive), but when he hits form in this period then you have to follow his runners. For the past 3 seasons, June has been very profitable (30 from 134, 22.4%), and Cumani has managed to keep his horses going into September (44 from 197, 22.3%) for the past 4 seasons. Again, Cumani has no problem making a trip with his horses and when he visits Folkestone (10 from 31), Doncaster (13 from 59), Haydock (11 from 48) and Leicester (13 from 53). While he has a solid 20% strikerate with his handicappers, his ability in this sphere is well known and following him blind is not profitable.
Jeremy NOSEDA is a trainer who I’ve come to pay attention to, especially when he send out solitary runners. If he goes to the races with just a single runner, take note. On the face of it, his across the board losses suggest that he is not a trainer to follow, but his strikerate with 3yo’s in handicaps is a remarkable 21% (35 wins from 167 runners, past 4 seasons) and I am paying close attention to these this season. The summer months of June, July, August and September for the past 4 seasons have seen Noseda have tremendous success with all his 3yo’s; from 272 runners he’s had 68 winners (25.0%) and in some months he’s had over 30% wins to runs.
I’ll come back to this again over the next week and add to the list of trainers to take note of.
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Thursday, 5 May 2011
Trainers to note on the Flat (turf) this summer
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I wrote on Wednesday that AP O'Brien cannot be ignored at Chester's May Meeting and Treasure Beach and Await The Dawn have now made it 3 wins from 3 runners for Mr O'Brien. Roll on Friday!ReplyDelete