Keeping the money in the wallet was the way to go yesterday as none of those discussed on the blog came anywhere near winning. The potential “place-lay” AVITUS was un-placed, but the place-odds never came near the odds of less-than 2.30 that I advised taking, they hovered around 2.70-2.90. So, despite it being a successful selection, I’m not taking that one.
I take the view that if someone is browsing, and reads my blog, then there needs to be a guide as to what odds to take. You cannot advise a bet or lay “at any price” as there comes a point in any wager where the risk outweighs the potential gain and becomes uneconomic. For instance, I rated AVITUS a 10/1 chance to win the race, and a 100/30 (4.30 on the exchanges) chance to be placed. I then factored in the betting-market support (it started with an SP of 6/1), hence arriving at the advised odds of <2.30.
Today’s racing looks ordinary fare, and the good-to-firm going seems to have taken a toll on the number of declared runners. Only 2 trainers with a 40%+ strike-rate in the past 14-days have single runners out today: Beckett has a 2yo making its debut in the 2:30 at Ffos Las called Pabusar which I will give a miss; and Brian Smart sends his only runner today SIRENUSE to Ayr, a trip from stable to course of 191 miles, for the 4:25. SIRENUSE has been highlighted by another blog that I monitor – http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com – so, the fact that it meets my trainer-in-form spec and also holds a strong chance on its own race-form makes it a selection today. SIRENUSE should lead from the stalls and try to make all, as such it looks the perfect “back-to-lay” proposition. Currently 3/1 (from 7/2), the advice I make is to take those odds on the exchanges (4.00+) and place a lay-bet to keep in-running to recover your stake at 1.80. I would not take less than 11/4 (3.80 on the exchanges). There is a one horse in the race I’m worried about and that’s City Dancer who has been the subject of a lot of support this morning from 12’s in to 7’s, and she probably needs 6-furlongs (todays trip is 5-furlongs) and will be finishing very strongly.
One other horse that is worth noting is at Southwell this evening in the 7:20, and that’s OVERSPIN. Not a selection this one, but it caught my eye as two of its half-brothers were much better chasers than hurdlers (approx. 20lb better) and both won over todays trip at Southwell, with the trainer (Paul Webber) of OVERSPIN handling one of them, Spinaround. I would not want to take on the fav in this race, but if OVERSPIN takes to fences then a surprise result is not out of the question.
Morning, the inform trainer stats seems like a worthy idea, how far back have you been toying with this?
ReplyDeleteJay
Hi Jay, and thanks for following my blog. I've been taking an interest in trainer-stats since 2002. Back then I used to highlight trainers in the Racing Post who were in-form (40%+ win & place in past 14-days). Then, next day I'd mark-up the same paper with the results and noted that trainers with only one runner on the day did remarkably well. You do have to make a leap of faith to put money on a horse with no apparent form that's 10/1+ but a trainers only runner - but they do win (sometimes). I try and tie-it in with trainers who travel a long way with a horse, and with course profiles. Trainers are human after all, and humans thrive on habit.
ReplyDeleteYea I does kind of say something when they are only sending one horse, there must be sound reasoning behind it, not just going for a picnic.
ReplyDeletedrop me an email sometime.
jay@amanthatlays.com
Jay
I'm a bit gutted by that result, 4th. Not yet watched the race but judging by the betting pattern in-running it must have disputed the lead or led for most of the way as it touched 2.00 for good money (£1000+).
ReplyDeleteJust watched the SIRENUSE race and it went off far too quick over the 1st-3 furlongs. With a bit more restraint it still would have been leading inside the furlong pole and may have hung on for a place if not held on to the lead. Also just watched OVERSPIN and as I predicted she ran a much better race over the jumps and looks much improved. Going well when crumpling on landing 4-out, I reckon it would have been 2nd as the others all looked very tired from 2-out.
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