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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 20 May 2010
Consider this: there are currently 15 flat trainers who have achieved a strike-rate of more than 40% placed from all their runners in the past 14-days. For instance, Henry Cecil has sent out 28 runners in the past 14-days, and had 10 winners and 4 others placed; strike-rate is 50%. Those 15 flat trainers with a 40%+ strike-rate have won 96 flat races between them. Just how many flat races were there in the past 14-days; 250? So, about 40% of all flat races were won by just 15 trainers in the past fortnight.
I combine flat-trainer stable form with runner placement, in particular solitary stable runners. Of those 15 trainers, just 2 have solitary runners out today. Henry Cecil and David Simcock.
Cecil runs EBONY BOOM in the 6:20pm at Sandown, current odds 8/1
Simcock runs SHABAK HOM in the 8:45pm at Salisbury, current odds 16/1
Now, on “known” form these horses are going to get beat, so we have to think outside the box. Both these trainers have good strike-rates at these courses; Cecil has an 18% strike-rate for Sandown, whereas Simcock has a 38% strike-rate with 3yo’s at Salisbury. He has sent 8 x 3yo’s there in past 5 years and 3 have won. At these sort of odds its worth an eachway double. If both are placed (and their respective trainers are not sending a horse-box, head lad and stable girl with just one horse for a day out) then a £10 ew double will return £126, potential profit of £106. Personally, I like the look of SHABAK HOM: it ran well over 9f at Epsom on only its 2nd run as a 2yo, and on its reappearance it was “cut-off” when making a move 2f-out and was not able to recover. So, I’ll definitely be having an each-way single on that one as well.
Generally though, today’s racing is pretty ordinary fare.
Yesterday’s selection PENANG PRINCESS looked good to do the biz until coming under pressure over 2f-out. The way it stopped then suggested that something was amiss. What I thought was unusual was that the “in-running” price did not dip below 2.90 which for a horse that has won over 2-mile before making-all and was leading with less than 3f to go. It was the 2/1 fav on-course (from 5/2) after all (was 3.30 SP on Betfair). I’m not saying there was skulduggery afoot, but I was intending to lay off my stake at 2.40 and given the way it ran the race there was no support for the horse in-running at all.