Exchange betting patterns

Not a great day for my selections yesterday, both were well beaten.

There was considerable support in the betting market for SHABAK HOM from 16/1 (with Betfred, 14’s generally) in the morning to an SP of just 6/1, but it was not justified on the effort shown in the race. The only positive was that there was plenty of opportunity to lay-off your stake prior to the off. EBONY BOOM ran a much more positive race and went-on with 3f to go, in-running odds going <3.00 (was 10.50 at the off). So, again, plenty of opportunity to lay-off your stake and even secure a profit (if that’s your bag).

I follow other blogs and one that I’ve visited frequently recently put me onto a winning opportunity - http://micksgamble.blogspot.com – This blog suggested laying the favourite ORIENTAL CAVALIER in the 2:50 at Haydock yesterday. The odds at the time were 3/1 (about 4.20 on the exchanges) and the prospect of laying £15.60 with the risk of losing £50 was a bit rich for me. I prefer to lay at less than 2.60. So I looked at the running style of Oriental Cavalier and noted it was a consistent front-runner, but (as highlighted by the blog) unlikely to stay the trip. So I set some “lays” up prior to the off to “keep” when in-running; £10 @ 2.60 (liability £16.00); £12 @ 2.40 (£16.80) and £14 @ 2.20 (£16.80). Same risk of about £50, but a potential upside of £36 instead of £15.60. Basically, I anticipated Oriental Cavalier to lead until inside the 2f pole then fade; and that’s what happened. In fact, Oriental Cavalier looked like it would not be pegged back 3f out when it was 3-lengths clear, but when the jockey applied the whip as they passed the 2f pole I knew the lay was safe. Oriental Cavalier actually went below 1.60 in-running – remarkable.

And compare this with the betting pattern in-running of PENANG PRINCESS on Wednesday. Both Penang Princess and Oriental Cavalier started at about 3.30 on the exchanges; both were front-running horses; both led half-a-mile out; both went clear at 3f out; both came under pressure at the 2f pole and lost the lead – yet Oriental Cavalier (never won at the trip in 7 starts) went to <1.60 in-running, whereas Penang Princess with winning form at the trip never went below 2.90. Makes no sense to me.