A really solid meeting at Worcester tomorrow (Sunday) and there look some good opportunities.
There are not many full brothers to a Guineas winner jumping hurdles, but one is PETROGLYPH in the 1:50. He's a full brother of Irish Guineas winner Indian Haven and started of his racing career with Saeed bin Suroor as a 2yo, but missed his entire 3yo season before being sold for £30k. He took his time to take to hurdling but when he did he rattled-off a hat-trick. He's won over 24f before, so should stay this trip. When he completed his hat-trick he beat Rebecca's Choice giving that horse 14lb. Rebeccca's Choice went on to win NTO and is now running off OR116, which is 29lb higher than when it was beaten fair'n'square by PETROGLYPH. Could this mean that a fit and well PETROGLYPH is possibly OR125+? If so, that makes his current rating of OR108 very lenient. This race looks a weak class 4 handicap (as most Class 4 handicap hurdles over 24f are), so PETROGLYPH holds a decent chance at the weights.
At 3:20, there's a beginners chase. Its choc-full of horses that have found winning novice chases difficult in the past 12 months, but there are two that catch my eye. The first is I'm The Decider who was a very progressive hurdler during the latter half of the 2008-09 season. He's having his debut chase and market confidence in him would be significant seeing as his stable-companion beat the other interesting horse in this race MONT PRESENT. That was Sunnyhillboy who went on run 2nd at the Festival and is now rated OR139 (up 12lb). MONT PRESENT was raised 3lb (to OR120) for that run. Next time out, on his first attempt at 24f, he was tenderly ridden and arrived too late to trouble the eventual winner that day. Up another 2lb (to OR122), he then didn't stay 25f at Ayr; so the drop in trip to 23f for this should suit him and he's dropped back to OR120. The presence runners from Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O'Neill and Charlie Mann should ensure some value in the odds for MONT PRESENT.
I've been waiting for SAFARI ADVENTURES to run at this time of year as he loves the better going (preferring Good-to-Firm) and he sun on his back - but he's never been placed in 7 tries at trips beyond 18f, so I'm not hopeful of his success at this trip of 20f 110yards. However, seeing as some of these seem to find winning very difficult despite their "talent" (Nikos Extra, Kew Jumper, Good Company, Battlecry) SAFARI ADVENTURES may be worth an ew punt at what could be generous odds.
Its 9/2 the field and a 7/1 2nd-fav in the 1:50 at Worcester, so it's a weak race and 20's about PETROGLYPH is decent given that if he's in the mood he'll beat these doing handsprings.
ReplyDeleteMONT PRESENT is a healthy 3/1, IMO he should be <2/1.
And SAFARI ADVENTURES is 14's - another generous opportunity. Though, I am also tempted by the 9/1 about KEW JUMPER who was unlucky to meet the decent Pickamus last time out.
Petroglyph was a non-runner; but a win for MONT PRESENT (SP 15/8) and a good 3rd for SAFARI ADVENTURES (SP 11/1) who led at the last, has secured a decent profit on the day.
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