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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 8 September 2010

Be careful out there

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
"and another thing..."

Review of yesterday’s racing
Because of the prospect of rain, there was only the one race reviewed on the blog yesterday, and that was the 3:55 at Lingfield. On the basis of high drawn runners having an advantage at the 7f trip (on turf) my intuition told me that HAND PAINTED (drawn 13 of the 16 declared runners), only runner of the day for Peter Makin, had a better chance than the 18/1 on offer at the time. And so it proved as there was continued support in the market throughout the day, and HAND PAINTED started at 15/2. That’s where the good news ended. Despite 8.4mm of overnight rain, the going was declared as good-to-firm for the opening race at 2:10. Before the 2nd race at 2:45, more heavy rain started to fall, and after that race the going was changed to good-to-soft. Further rain before the 3:20 race compounded the situation. I already feared the worst before the off of the 3:55 and traded-out my position (I’d managed to obtain an average of 20.46 on Betfair in the morning) at 8.20, so no money lost. HAND PAINTED was always struggling on the ground and never looked like being involved as it turned into a very testing 7-furlong race, with the 1st-4 pulling away from the field in the final 300 yards. I was lucky enough to be able to trade-out, but the weather in the UK this week is very wet and if you are having a wager, (as they said on NYPD Blue) be careful out there!

Today’s Racing Selections
There are a couple of flat (turf) meetings at Doncaster and Epsom, and AW meeting at Kempton, and a jumps meeting at Uttoxeter. Yesterday, I made the mistake of saying the jumps meeting was at Stratford and it was at Sedgefield (and I was well & truly ticked-off on twitter!).
It is the 1st day of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster. Note, there is no ‘d’ in Leger, as the creator of the race was not an accountant but General Anthony St Leger who devised the race in 1776 – the year the America’s declared their independence from Britain – and so the race bears his name.
The going at Doncaster will be no better than good-to-soft, and with this in mind it may pay to take a small chance with GROUP THERAPY in the 5f Listed race at 3:10. Just about every horse in this race has no winning form on going with “give”, but at least GROUP THERAPY has not run on going this soft so we are unsure as to whether it will affect his ability. As with the race at Lingfield yesterday, the winner will most likely be the horse least affected by the going. GROUP THERAPY is clearly the most talented horse in the race, and is in great form, and his trainer Jeremy Noseda has a 25% strike-rate at Doncaster. I’ve taken my lead on this race from the excellent blog sprinterstogo (see adjacent link) which has a write-up on this race. The 4/1 available looks fair value.
Epsom is expecting heavy rain, and the ground is already good-to-soft in places. Some of the races here look very tricky to fathom and I could give you a name or two, but really it would be making selections on a wing and a prayer.
The meeting at Uttoxeter looks a good one but there’s no outstanding selection jumping out at me. I will be interested in the performance of Jonjo O’Neill’s TARVINI as this has looked a very progressive horse these past 12-months and I’m sure there’s a lot more to come.

Doncaster 3:10 GROUP THERAPY, 1pt win @ 4/1

“and another thing…”
There’s been a fair bit of criticism for Graham Bradley having been allowed by the BHA to ride in a charity race at Doncaster. Much of it is due to the perception that Bradley has shown no remorse or guilt for his actions (he admitted passing on privileged and sensitive information about races to “drug baron” Brian Wright, in return for money). I accept that passing on information about horses and how they might perform in a race so that someone may gain a financial advantage is wrong. But where do you draw the line? I’ll not name names, but those in racing know all the characters who flirt with “privileged and sensitive” information. And we are not talking of the shady criminal fraternity either, but multi-millionaires who obtained their wealth by legitimate means and seek only to pamper their inflated ego by having one over the bookies.
And why should Bradley have to show remorse and guilt for his actions? He has served his ban and now the slate should be wiped clean. If you were not able to be released from prison until you showed remorse and guilt for the crime that put you there, then there would be a 10-fold increase in the prison population.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad


  1. The Scarbrough Stakes was run in a time only slightly faster than the Class 4 Hcap later in the day and it showed as everyone waited till late to play their hand and at one stage there looked like being a blanket finish. Group Therapy obviously wasnt at his best on this easier going and there will be other days for him and it will be interesting to see if Jeremy Noseda reports anything on his website.

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