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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 23 September 2010

John Smith Cup winner to come good

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
Good run from blog selection HAND PAINTED yesterday to be 2nd, btn just half-a-length. He was never going to win yesterday, the winner Humidor being eased in the last 50 yards, but he was doing his best work in the final furlong. This suggests that off this mark – and he should not be penalised much for this run by the handicapper – he can win if stepping-up to 7-furlongs on similar going (good-to-firm). The winner, Humidor, holds 4 entries over the next 5-days so take note where he runs next. HAND PAINTED was advised at 10/1 in the morning, so a ½pt each-way (quarter-odds) returned a ¾pt profit.
Unfortunately, that was lost (and a ¼pt more) when TWELVE PACES – the other blog selection – came home 2nd in his race at Perth. The winner of that race, Soubriquet, was winning for the 1st time at a trip beyond 2m4f at his 8th attempt. The way Soubriquet won the race tho’ suggests that this won’t be his only win at this sort of trip.
The other aspect of note yesterday was at Redcar when jockey Adrian Nicholls won yet another non-handicap race when Fremen won at 6/1. From 295 rides this season, Adrian Nicholls has ridden 52 winners; but if you take away his 186 handicap rides (which have provided 19 winners) then from non-handicaps he’s won 33 times from just 109 rides (30.27%). Focus only on selling and claiming races and those stats become 24 winners from 49 rides (48.98% strike-rate) producing a level-stake profit of £34.79 from an outlay of £49.00 – that’s a 71% return on investment. I have advised of this before, and it’s a real money-spinner. All credit tho’ must go to the blog-writer at sprinterstogo (see adjacent link) who uncovered this amazing stat.
From my narrative yesterday, you would also have been on 7/2 winner DOMINANT in the opener at Goodwood.
Read the blog – it’s free!

Today’s Racing Selections
Just a single flat (turf) meeting at Pontefract, and jumps meetings at Perth and Fontwell; there is also an AW meeting at Wolverhampton this evening.
There’s a cracking class 2 handicap at Pontefract at 4:00 and last year’s John Smiths Cup winner SIRVINO has now dropped to OR93 which is just a 1lb above his mark when winning that great handicap and, having been rated OR101, he looks a great chance at 6/1 in this. He gets good-to-firm going for the first time since then over this 10f trip. Remember, he was considered possibly group class last summer.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Fontwell. At Perth, when he won over C&D on 21st Aug, I made a note of JEWELLED DAGGER and he comes here in good form. He can run well in the 2:50 at Perth and at 7/1 he looks fair value as he’s run well on similar going on the flat and he’s never been unplaced in 3 runs at Perth.

Pontefract 4:00 SIRVINO, ½pt each-way @ 6/1 (available generally – 5th odds)
Perth 2:50 JEWELLED DAGGER, ½pt each-way @ 7/1 (available generally – 5th odds)
Total = 2pts staked

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Thanks from Wayward Lad


  1. Made an error with the Adrian Nicholls stats which I have now corrected. The Racing Post stats page for him does not add up!

  2. That Nicholls family patrnership in Claimers and Sellers is a goldmine but not many punters seem to have cottoned and thats good for the rest of us with 6/1 winners !