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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 9 September 2010

Sir Mark Prescott makes it 6 wins from 7 runners in 7 days

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
Future Racing Antepost review

Review of yesterday’s racing
When writing this blog I usually start off on the evening before racing and finish off mid-morning, before posting the blog sometime around 11am when the opening odds are offered by the bookies. I have to be aware of what the market is saying as I can then make an assessment of what the probable SP will be. I know that I advise the odds that’s available at the time of posting the blog, but not everyone can access the internet to read the blog within minutes of me posting (even tho’ I always send out an alert on twitter: find me on @wayward_lad). So I try and find selections that will likely hold their price and so everyone who wants to can get on. I try and avoid making selections that are say 5/2, but are likely to be 7/4 within an hour of posting and eventually start at 5/4 – even tho’ this would be of benefit to the “back-to-lay” players on Betfair. There were a couple that jumped out at me yesterday at Epsom, but because I thought they would shorten significantly in the betting, I did not post them as selections. They were Krypton Factor, the only runner of the day for Sir Mark Prescott; and Epic, which was one of 6 sent to Epsom by Mark Johnston.
Sir Mark is in great form with 5 winners from 6 runners (and the other was 2nd) and altho’ it was 7/2 in the RP betting forecast, I assumed once the hordes noticed it then it would start at less than 2/1 – it won at odds of 5/2. Mark Johnston is a consistent trainer, but he does tend to send many runners out every racing day. However, he had 3 winners from his 6 runners at Epsom yesterday, and I thought Epic stood-out on form but as it was 11/4 in the RP betting forecast, I thought that it too would start at less than 2/1. It didn’t and it won at odds of 7/2 being in complete command throughout the race. I even read the market wrong with my blog selection GROUP THERAPY as I thought the race was wide open and there was little chance of its odds contracting. Unfortunately, there were a number of non-runners including the probably fav Tax Free, and so GROUP THERAPY started at 15/8 and he was never value at those odds having his first encounter with softish going. As it happened he did not really handle it, but ran a good race anyway to be 3rd. Back on quicker ground he should recoup the loss.
At Uttoxeter, BEN’S FOLLY won the 3-mile h’cap hurdle with 11st 10lb comfortably in a good time, and he is one for the notebook, especially as he is only a 5yo and improvement is almost guaranteed.

Today’s Racing Selections
There are three flat (turf) meetings at Doncaster, Epsom and Bath, and AW meeting at Kempton, and a jumps meeting at Uttoxeter.
There’s nothing of interest at Bath, even tho’ Roger Charlton sends his only runner of the day there, Sugar Beet, for the 4:00. At Epsom Sir Mark Prescott, with 6 winners in past 7-days from just 7 runners, sends Rare Tern for the 3:35. This is likely to start at short odds (its 5/4 now) and should go very well being a C&D winner LTO. But I would not be surprised to see an upset but which horse will do it, I can’t decide on which. Nothing else looks interesting there.
It’s the 2nd day of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster. It’s a good meeting today, and in the 2:35 SIRVINO looks placed to score. He ran a cracker from the rear LTO behind Sweet Lightening and Royal Destination and with a strong pace virtually guaranteed from Ella (who has dropped 5lb in the h’cap), he can get his season back on track. The Group 2 Park Hill Stakes is a step into unknown stamina territory for these 3yo fillies at 1m 6f+, and I will pass on this race. The Listed race at 4:55 over 7f for fillies and mares looks a nightmare as most are out of form on recent runs; but FLORA TREVELYAN is probably a better horse than her OR100 rating and she is a worthy each-way selection at 11/1. She stays upto 10f and has a turn-of-foot.

Doncaster 2:35 SIRVINO, 1pt win @ 6/1
Doncaster 4:55 FLORA TREVELYAN, ½pt each-way @ 11/1
Plus: ½pt each-way double.
Total = 3pts staked

“and another thing…”
Maybe it’s just me, and maybe the stories that are in racing are fairly obvious to all, but some of the things that I’ve written in this blog (and in a couple of other blogs that I read) seem to be appearing almost word-for-word in the racing press. So, if you’re reading this, and you’re an advocate of lazy journalism, then at least give the blog a plug. Thanks!

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Thanks from Wayward Lad


  1. Hi Iain, was amazed with the SP of Krypton Factor it's definately worth keeping an eye of these trainers in form. I reckon both his runners today look a good little double.
    Cheers Rich

  2. Sometimes the betting market does strange things. It could be that with Krypton Factor running in the 1st race at Doncaster the masses had yet to get on. And you were right about todays pair from Sir Mark - both won!