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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 10 September 2010

Fortune favours the brave

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
It looked like SIRVINO was suffering from some sort of injury a long way out yesterday as his jockey was making concerned glances at his mounts running action not long after they turned into the straight. I expected the horse to be pulled-up at that stage, but the jockey kept on and SIRVINO found nothing. It was a real race for the form-book and the winner Royal Destination looks capable of stepping out of handicap class. He’s been subject to good money for the Cambridgeshire, but he failed in the race last Autumn and I reckon he’ll find easier targets than that race. Quite what happened to FLORA TREVELYAN is concerning. Having been supported from 11/1 to start the 7/1 3rd-fav, she was well-placed 500 yards out, but stopped in a matter of strides and was virtually pulled-up. Let’s hope that both horses come out of their races ok and reappear again soon.
What more can you say about WOOTTON BASSETT? Can there be a more aptly named horse, which has such tenacity and bravery? He’s probably off to France for a race on “Arc” day and there will be cheers and tears if he comes home in front.
At Epsom, RARE TERN made it 7 winners from 8 runners for Sir Mark Prescott in 8-days, and then this other runner TRUE TO FORM at Kempton in the evening made it 8 wins from 9 runners. This is turning into the training performance of the season. He’s running 4 today, including 2 up at Doncaster (more of which later).

Today’s Racing Selections
There are three flat (turf) meetings at Doncaster, Chester and Sandown, and AW meeting at Wolverhampton. No jumps meetings today.
The Chester meeting looks interesting, especially the 4:45 where my old friend Dolphin Rock runs again. He’s as honest and game a horse there is, and could easily have won his last 3 races. Drawn 1, he’ll (hopefully) lead throughout and could prove mighty hard to pass. But Qanoon from Haggas (his only runner today) and RIGIDITY from Cecil will be hard to hold off; and it’s the latter that looks the best bet as his form in the Spring is well above these here and at 3/1 (and with Cecil having a great strike-rate at Chester) he’s the value wager. The meeting at Sandown is equally as competitive and it looks a great card, one that would take more than a few hours to fathom out.
Doncaster gets better and better, and in the Cup at 2:40 it will take a good one to get past OPINION POLL and the extra couple of furlongs should not inconvenience him. At 3/1 he looks good value.
The Mallard Stakes (handicap) at 2:05 will, I believe, show that the Melrose Handicap at York was an aberration. For me, the only one to take from that race is Gosden’s Zuider Zee, who hopefully will be ridden much closer to the pace today and could well be the best of the 3yo’s, but FORTUNI was nearly floored by Overturn when that one was suddenly pulled-up in the Ebor, and he then was forced to plough a lone furrow on the far rail from which he had no chance. Sir Mark Prescott has his stable in a rich vein of form and for me FORTUNI could be the wager of the week at 12/1.

Doncaster 2:05 FORTUNI, ½pt each-way @ 12/1
Doncaster 2:40 OPINION POLL, 1pt win @ 3/1
Chester 4:45 – depends on how the earlier wagers get on, but it’s a 1pt win on RIGIDITY @ 3/1 now and if we’ve a return from the earlier wagers, that will double-up to 2pts win.

Total = 3pts staked (maybe 4pts dependent on results)

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