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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday 7 September 2010

Paint the town red with an 18/1 chance

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
Future Racing Antepost review

Review of yesterday’s racing
Not a bad day for readers of the blog.
Was on the mark with Brian Meehan’s only runner at Newcastle as PEARL ARCH won. However, the slight odds of 4/6 and winning by just a neck was not convincing tho’. I was right about Jeremy Noseda’s GOLD GLEAM too. As I said yesterday, with only the 1 winner from 11 runners at Newcastle, Noseda is not worth following here and his horse was 3/1 in the betting and a fair “lay” play, eventually finishing well down the field.
If a trainer has a bad strike-rate, it’s for a reason, so don’t ignore it. It is usually nothing to do with the horse, and is more likely something to do with the transport. It may be that on the way to Newcastle (a 245 mile, 7 hour-long journey) the lads stop-off for breakfast and the horses get un-settled. I may be because they park the van under a noisy air-con unit; or something like that. Humans are habitual, always remember that, and in order to change habits they need to be told.
The success of the day was in the chase at Newton Abbot, and as I said SPORTING REBEL was not without a chance if the rains came and they did. The going was heavy by 4:00pm and SPORTING REBEL was a plodding, one-paced 2nd @ 11/1 making a worthy profit for the each-way thieves despite never looking likely to win. Then, in the final race of the day, last week’s “gamble” horse AM I BLUE won again as expected on this blog, at the quite generous odds of 5/6 (I thought he should have started at 4/7) given that the horse went into a clear lead from 2-out and won by a distance.
What about the trainers-in-form?
Eve Johnson-Houghton (5 wins; 3 placed; from 17 runners, in past 7-days) sent out 3 runners, and Dew Reward obliged @ 3/1 (opened @ 4/1) in the opener at Bath.
JJ Quinn (4w; 6p; 21r in 14-days) sent out 3, and had a winner at 6/1.
Unfortunately, the other horse mentioned Hugh Morrison’s only runner – Celestial Girl – could only run 2nd as the 9/4 fav.

Today’s Racing Selections
I thought yesterday’s racing was ordinary, today’s is fairly dire!
With the coming of September, 2yo’s dominate the flat-racing scene, and that’s not for me. I like to dabble a bit with the breeding side of racing when making selections for 2yo races as sometimes you can find a good-priced winner; but you can just as easily have a long-run of losers. And if the stable think they have a decent horse then you’re gonna be lucky to get odds-against.
As such, much of the flat racing at Goodwood and Lingfield as a waste of time as far as I am concerned. The 3:55 at Lingfield tho’ could hold an opportunity. As the RP Spotlight says, high-drawn runners have the best chance in big fields over 7f at Lingfield, so with 15 starters its best to concentrate on the 6 horses with double-figure draws. Much focus will be on Duster (11), Fault (16) and Spanish Island (15); but I am drawn to HAND PAINTED drawn 13. Essentially a hold-up horse, he was progressive last season winning 3 times, the last time at 7f beating Dance And Dance (now up 13lb) off OR76. His last run can be ignored as he was unsettled in the stalls and missed the break, but his previous 2 runs were very encouraging and he can go close with a good pace almost guaranteed today. Currently 18/1 (there’s been a NR, so only 15 start its 1-2-3 a place) he looks great value.
The jumps meeting at Stratford looks very ordinary, and I’m going to give racing there a miss.

Lingfield 3:55 HAND PAINTED, 1pt ew @ 18/1

Future Racing Antepost Review
As we enter the autumn months I have decided to change my wagering policy. It is always good to adapt how you play the markets from time-to-time. This ensures that bad habits are not continued too long and are (hopefully) replaced with good, money-making habits. This review will fall into 2 parts; (1) there will be a reduction the number of individual wagers and I will not be trying to find a daily wager; (2) there will be a focus to the better handicaps and Groups races with the aim of trying to find a bit more value.

Regular readers will know I am a subscriber of the “Weekender” the weekly racing paper. There are a couple of writers in that paper whom over the past few months I have gained a respect for. The first is the tipster Dick Hunter. He made some remarkable selections over the jumps in last autumn major handicaps, and he’s maintained that eye for a winner during the flat season. The next is a recent find, Paul Kealy who started writing in the Weekender in midsummer. He has also found some incredible winners these past couple of months. I will be looking at the horses these 2 focus on in the Weekender in the next few weeks and months.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad


  1. So much for the "high" draw being favoured at Lingfield. When I wrote the blog I was going to give racing a miss due to the rain; but then I saw HAND PAINTED and thought it looked a viable wager. I managed to get my money on at 20.46 on Betfair, and it was 15/2 (8.80) at the off. It never looked like winning as the going was more like good-to-soft than good-to-firm as there had clearly been a lot of rainfall during the day. Somehow, the horse touched 3.20 in-running (god knows why as it was struggling after 3-furlongs on the ground) so I had laid-off my stake by then; but this was an abject lesson in how the weather can affect racing results.

  2. I find looking at the rainfall radar a help when Im trying to work out how much rain has fallen. I also use it to see whether it is actually heading for the course or to see how much rain is on the way.