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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 13 September 2010

Skeleton's in the cupboard

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of last week’s racing
There was no blog on Saturday, but we ended on Friday with a profit when RIGIDITY scored in emphatic manner (advised @ 3/1) at Chester. Subject of a major market move, he started at 6/4 and he looks like one that can be followed. My old friend in the race, Dolphin Rock, could not make the pace and was boxed-in on the rails until they opened-up in the straight; he can win off this rating.
My other 2 selections at York both were unplaced.
I really should have posted a blog on Saturday as a couple of old friends won. Previous blog selection GLENRIDDING won at 16/1 having been able to hit the front early and dominate the race. This is how he runs best, and I have found that if you find a particular style of running that suits a horse then when it gets the conditions that suit then you should jump in with both feet. Chester suits a dominant front-runner and in the circumstances 16/1 was a gift. In fact, 5 of the 7 races at Chester on Saturday were won by horses that made all; it’s worth remembering as they won at odds of 7/2; 16/1; 7/2; 5/1 and 7/1.
Another previous blog selection, CAPPONI, also won at Doncaster at 9/2. Again, a lesson I have learned over many years is that if you have found a horse that you believe is well-handicapped then follow it – it may lose a race or two, but invariably it will come good. Finally, DOCOFTHEBAY who has been the focus of this blog several times looked like winning at 12/1 on Sunday until throwing the race away in the final 75 yards. He won’t get a better chance than that.
John Gosden has his stable in great form and he continues to send out the winners. In August, he had a 34% strike-rate (24 winners from 70 runners) and over the past few seasons, autumn has been his best time of year. He has hit 20%+ in September in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and in October in 3 of the past 4 seasons. Last year he fell just short of 20% in Sept and Oct, but hit 26% in November. Saeed Bin Suroor also had 9 winners last week, from just 24 runners, and his form in the autumn is usually phenomenal. Last year he had 27 wins from 95 runners in Sept (27%), followed by 42 from 129 in Oct (33%), and an amazing 19 from 34 (56%) in November. He had a 29% strike-rate in October 2008, 26% in Oct 2007, 25% in Oct 2006; and topped 30% in September in both 2006 and 2007.
And are we seeing a change in fortune for Sir Michael Stoute? He sent out 6 winners from just 16 runners last week.

Today’s Racing Selections
There are three flat (turf) meetings at Musselburgh, Redcar and Brighton, and none look up to writing home about.
At Redcar, Saeed Bin Suroor sends his only runner of the day BADEEL for the 3:10 where it’s ridden by Dettori and is his only ride today too. Should win this, but is already 8/11 and – well, you never know what might happen in racing especially with 2yo’s having their debut on the track. I’ll not be having a wager on it, but may “place-lay” it as its half-brother only won a solitary “seller” in 20 starts.
There is nothing of interest at Musselburgh, so onto Brighton. The 2:30 catches the eye mainly as Jeremy Noseda (15 winners from 28 here; 54%) and Willie Haggas (8 winners from 20 here; 40%) both have their only runner of the day in this. The market fav is the Noseda horse, Ebony Song, but this horse has done nothing right in 2 starts and at just 6/4 there is no way I’d have money on it. However, the Haggas horse SKELETON is a half-brother of Mulaqat who won 3 times as a 2yo and was rated OR92; and that was after an in-auspicious debut too. At 10/1, he looks worth a punt to get it right today.
One to note for this autumn’s jumps racing is Dot’s Delight who runs in the 3:30. She ran well over C&D last summer prior to a successful hurdles campaign, and if she’s fit enough to do herself justice she will run well. I cannot see the fav Zelos Dikator handling this track as all his best runs have been on flat, galloping tracks which is not how I would describe Brighton. The course winners Dancing Storm and Noah Jameel are the ones to be on in this.
Eve Johnson-Houghton has her stable in fine form and she sends out only one runner today – SKYFLIGHT in the 4:30 at Brighton. Despite only costing 1,000 Guineas she is related to 5 winners and having only had a single run this season is well unexposed. Currently 20/1, she could prove to be a springer in the market, as her owner Mrs P Robeson is not a bad judge of a horse.

No selections today, as the racing is poor. But I would not put you off having small each-way wagers on Skeleton and Dancing Storm.

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