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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 22 September 2010

If at first you don't succeed...

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
For any of you readers out there who have a twitter account, one of the better aspects of being a “tweeter” is that some of racing trainers also tweet. Probably the best example, mainly because he is fairly consistent, open and honest about his horse’s chances, is Roger Charlton. He sent out a tweet yesterday morning regarding his runner SUGAR BEET stating “Sugar Beat was impressive last time, runs off 3lbs higher mark today, and must have a good chance.” You can’t have a clearer message than that and the horse duly won at 3/1. This was Roger Charlton’s only runner yesterday.
Trainer, Mick Jarvis, sent out just a single runner (City Ground at Folkestone) and it won at 11/4; as did Sir Michael Stoute, who sent Modun to win at Folkestone ay 8/11. The same with Alan Swinbank who’s only runner yesterday, Hail Bold Chief, won at 17/2 at Beverley.
It is not a totally foolproof system, but highlighting the only runners of the day from any trainer – and paying particular attention to the top trainers in the country – is a good way of sorting out the “triers” from those just “out for a jolly”.

There was quite a market move for the blog selection JOB ONE yesterday from 7/1 into an SP of 11/2. Unfortunately, it didn’t come off as the horse did not stay this extreme trip despite looking a threat about half-a-mile out, just before the 2nd-last fence.

Today’s Racing Selections
There are two flat (turf) meetings at Goodwood and Redcar, an AW meeting at Kempton, and a jumps meeting at Perth. The meeting at Redcar looks dire, so I’m giving that a miss.
The opener at Goodwood was won last year by Sir Michael Stoute’s WORKFORCE who went on to win this year’s Derby. He has no entry this year, and the only horse holding a Derby entry in today’s race is DOMINANT sent here by Mick Jarvis.
On the 7th Sept, I advised a bet on HAND PAINTED who was gambled-on from 18/1 to 15/2 but struggled on the rain-sodden soft going (it was declared as Good-to-Firm in the morning!). This horse has now dropped 6lbs in the rating to OR70 today, and I can find valid excuses for all its latest couple of runs this season, and its run on 24th June at Warwick was as good as any performance he ran last season. It’s not the best draw (3 of 12) at Goodwood, but there are a couple of non-runners in the 3:10, and as such odds of 10/1 (Bet 365) look fair value given that those ahead of him in the market all would prefer ‘good’ going or softer; and they won’t get that today with temperatures in the low-20’s over the South of England. HAND PAINTED needs good-to-firm going, he'll get that today, so I'm going to try again to win with him.
At Perth, the 4:45 Duke of Atholl Challenge Cup looks a fair betting proposition. With stamina doubts over several including the fav Steel Magnate and the Twiston-Davies runner Nudge And Nurdle, the in-form horse TWELVE PACES can take this if not suffering from the “bounce” factor, but he’s had plenty of time to recover from his LTO win and at 5/1 he looks a fair punt.

Goodwood 3:10 HAND PAINTED, ½pt each-way @ 10/1 (Bet365)
Perth 4:45 TWELVE PACES, 1pt win @ 5/1 (available generally)

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