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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday 19 November 2010
AFSOUN to rekindle old memories
I didn’t make any firm blog selections yesterday, but the narrative led readers to a nice winner in I’M A LEGEND who won @ 7/2 by a short-head. It was a tremendously game performance, and I don’t think his winning streak is over based on that run and he should be able to withstand a rating hike.
YOUNGSTOWN – the other horse mentioned on the blog – needs further than 3-mile as had no pace left at the end of this race.
There are three jump meetings today at Ascot, Exeter and Musselburgh.
At Ascot, on paper the races look attractive, but there are not enough horses entered to make it interesting. The beginners chase at 1:35 sees a horse I followed last season run – FREDO. After failing at Newbury last Feb, I thought he didn’t stay 3-mile, but then he went and won NTO at Haydock over 3-mile on soft. I feel he will take a lot of beating today, but in novice chases you can never be too sure. The class 3 h’cap chase at 2:35 only has 4 runners, so much will depend on the race tactics employed. If Five Dream exploits his stamina and makes a race of it then he should win comfortably, but if they race at a dawdle then it could go to the outsider of the quarter, Russian Flag.
Jockey Liam Treadwell has had a hard time of it since winning the Grand National on Mon Mome. He could ride a winner this afternoon tho’ (and a welcome one for him at that too) on LE BURF in the 3:20. LE BURF is much better going right-handed and this 3-mile chase on good-to-soft will suit him well. The market is made by Quinz who won a very weak beginners chase LTO, and I think he’s been seriously over-rated. So, odds of 6/1 on LE BURF look good value.
In the last race on the card, my eye was caught by 2007 Champion Hurdle 3rd AFSOUN racing off OR145 carrying top-weight of 11:12. It’s a long time since he won a hurdle, but he wasn’t beaten much last January in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock last January, which was the last time he ran over 2-mile over jumps. He ran well for his new stable on the flat LTO, and I reckon he’ll surprise today 33/1 and “nick” a place.
At Exeter, the 3-mile hurdle at 1:15 looks a race to watch and take note of. Should provide a rich seam of pointers.
I cannot see anything of interest at Musselburgh and with time now limited for form-study with racing starting at 12:25, it means I have to sign-off early.
Ascot 3:20 LE BURF, ½pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
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