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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday 25 November 2010
Day 1 - Hennessey meeting
I was right about the blog selection DIAMOND FRONTIER being over-priced at 5/2; he started at 7/4 having touched 6/4 on-course. However, despite the market support and leading over the final fence, the going (it was Soft, good-to-soft in places) was probably too testing for him and he had no response to the challenge of the eventual winner RIGUEZ DANCER. I did say in my blog I thought Riguez Dancer was capable of better than he’d shown to date, and he was very confidently ridden by Graham Lee. He looks more than capable of winning again, as the handicapper is unlikely to raise him more than 5lb and he’ll improve on this performance when racing over further anyway.
The 3-mile hurdle at Chepstow also ended as I expected, with the 1st-4 home finishing in a heap with barely a length covering them. Avoiding this race was the best call.
Today marks the opening day of the Newbury Hennessey meeting, along with two other jump meetings, at Taunton and Uttoxeter. Some decent jockeys are riding at Uttoxeter rather than Newbury this afternoon – Jason Maguire, Graham Lee, Dougie Costello amongst others - but the heavy going there puts me off making any selections at the meeting.
At Taunton, my old mate Justabout runs again in the 3:30, a 2m7f & 110yd chase, but he’s up 3lb for his C&D win LTO. This is a tougher race than that one (which he only just won) even tho’ there are several from that race contesting this. If Emma Lavelle’s Extra Bold is fit to do himself justice, he’ll win this doing handsprings off OR96, but he usually needs a run (he’s been off for 550 days). Last year’s winner Sir Winston has been 2nd for his last 3 races off today’s mark of OR95. He’s one-paced, but will be there at the finish, tho’ current odds of just 7/2 leave no margin for error. It may pay to go for a rank outsider to spring a surprise – but which one? Justabout again?
Onto Newbury, and what a tremendous 3-days we have in store providing the snow and frost stay away. The covers have been placed over the whole course, and while todays’ racing is a goer, I’m not so hopeful that the Hennessey meeting on Saturday will take place. There are plenty of decent horses racing over the next 3-days that I’m looking forward to, so the aim is not to be too speculative with the wagers.
The opening race looks a cracker, and there has been money for Henderson’s Super Kenny. Now I know I said earlier in the week that everything Henderson sends out should be considered, but the money for him has pushed out the odds on Pennellis to 7/2. They are both going to be thereabouts, but the value for me in this is Ian William’s GIFTED LEADER with talented 8lb conditional Trevor Whelan aboard at 16/1.
The best race of the day for me is the 2m6½f chase at 2:10. For me, Zarrafakt will need to improve his jumping (from his debut win) to take this with a 7lb penalty. Improvement is also required from Flemish Invader, and Buffalo Bob really wants 3-mile plus. It has to be SOUND STAGE with Geraghty aboard. Fit from hurdling and running well in competitive contests, his last chase run when 2nd to Midnight Chase now reads exceptionally well. Current odds of 8/1 look very tempting.
The novice chase at 3:15 is mouth-watering. I realise Tell Massini ran exceptionally well on his debut, but I would not rule out any of these, especially Henderson’s Be There In Five, who looked to hold huge potential last season.
Newbury 12:30 GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Newbury 2:10 SOUND STAGE, 1pt eachway @ 8/1 (available generally, B.O.G.)
Total = 3pts staked
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