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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday 23 November 2010
Some future potential winners
Richard Johnson rode a treble from his 5 rides at Ffos Las, giving him stats of 17 wins from 77 rides (22%) in November. Johnson has been riding tremendously well recently and I believe his talent is much under-rated; he is especially good in hurdle and NH flat races.
Nicky Henderson can never be under-estimated at Kempton (50 wins from 177 runners; 28%) and he had hat-trick from his 5 runners there yesterday. Henderson can almost be followed “blind” from 1st November till the end of February as his strike-rate rarely drops below 25% during this 4 month period and you cannot ignore any of his runners, no matter what the market says. Not all goes well for Henderson tho’, his runner ANDYTOWN was a big disappointment; he never liked chasing last time he tried it, and this run was no improvement – back to hurdling!
The terrors of the jumping game were on display at Ludlow when punters supporting odds-on Mud Monkey, the 8/11 Fav, watched him fall at the final fence when leading and holding a clear advantage over his only realistic rival. I would be surprised if he wasn’t trading at under 1.20 at the time on the exchanges. It’s not over till they cross the line, and the fences are there to be jumped!
There were no selections on the blog yesterday, so the November running total remains in profit with 2.00pts (14pts staked, 14.29%ROI); and there are no selections today. The horseracing at the day’s two jump meetings at Sedgefield and Lingfield present no opportunities for a wager.
I have updated the Horse Alert running totals, and if you refer to those pages you can see which of the Chasers & Hurdlers have run to date, which have won and how they all have performed. From the list, there are some decent prospects for the near future with WEIRD AL due to run in the Hennessey on Saturday and QHILIMAR entered for a couple of races this week.
I spent some time perusing the formbook of results for the last 4 weeks or so yesterday and may have found a few interesting horses that you might want to make a note of. First up is an Irish novice chaser called THEGREATJOHNBROWNE. Trainer Noel Meade has thought a lot about this horse for a long time, and he’s won both of his novice chases this season, making-all each time. He could develop into a very exciting chaser over the winter. Next up is YOU KNOW YOURSELF; he won his debut chase, beating a couple of race-fit and experienced winning chasers very easily. He has only been raised 8lb for that, which seems very lenient. The Arkle looks wide open at the moment, with Celestial Halo probably being aimed at a longer trip than 2-mile, and nothing much else yet showing Arkle potential – except one horse, GHIZAO. The more I look at this horse, the more time I spend with the formbook, the more it looks pretty damn good. He was given a speed rating of 129 for his Cheltenham win, yet he won as he liked – unextended. The next race on the card was run 2.12 secs quicker; about 9½lbs (I work on 4½lbs a second). Take off the 2lb more that GHIZAO carried and we have about a 7lb difference. But that race (won by GAUVAIN with FORPADYDEPLASTERER in 2nd) had the main protagonists running at full pelt. Maybe it’s me, but I reckon that GHIZAO is already an OR160+ chaser and that makes him better than anything that ran in the Arkle last March.
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