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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday 24 November 2010
Diamond in the rough
The going at Lingfield was particularly testing yesterday. It wasn’t much less testing at Sedgefield, and it paid off to come into the meeting race-fit, as 3 winners had won their most recent race.
Other than that, there was not much to write about yesterday’s racing. There were no selections on the blog yesterday, so the November running total remains in profit with 2.00pts (14pts staked, 14.29%ROI).
There are two jump meetings, at Chepstow and Wetherby.
The Chepstow meeting looks pretty dire apart from the 3-mile class 3 h’cap hurdle at 2:15. With the going being soft, this race will take some getting. The fav, Radmores Revenge, ran well LTO over 2m4f here, so comes here race-fit but has always struggled at this level in the past. Saintly Lady has not stopped improving since going hurdling in May this year, and won LTO over 3m1f. Unfortunately, she’s been put-up 11lb for that win to OR109, and that was a bit excessive. Young Albert will stay this 3-mile trip on this going (has won on heavy) and is due to be dropped 3lb to OR112 after coming 3rd LTO. In 4th that day was Saphire Night who was having his 1st race in 333-days. He is likely to come on for that run and trainer Tom George does well at Chepstow (7 wins from 27 in hurdles here). Anak tries this trip for the first time, having never finished a race beyond 2m1f in the past, but he will handle the soft going. Stow has never shown any form over this sort of trip. Twiston-Davies runs What A Scientist and he does like a stamina test, but his recent form is poor. Heathcliff returns to hurdling after not taking to chasing, and is on a fair mark if he can rekindle his form of 2008-09. The others look to be outclassed. So, you can see why Radmores Revenge is the fav (a weak one), but SAPHIRE NIGHT at 13/2 looks worthy of some interest. The race is a tricky one tho’ and they could all finish in a heap, so no wager on the race for me.
At Wetherby, there is only the class 3 h’cap chase over 2-mile at 1:50 that catches the eye. I made a note of Riguez Dander last season after he won on heavy at Sedgefield over 2m4f. While I reckon he’s capable of better than he’s shown to date, he was exposed at this trip when 3rd at Perth in April on similar going. DIAMOND FRONTIER on the other hand, is at his best at this minimum trip and is still on the upgrade. For me, current odds of 5/2 look generous, and I expect him to start shorter than this, perhaps even 13/8.
Wetherby 1:50 DIAMOND FRONTIER, 1pt win @ 5/2 (available generally, best odds guaranteed)
Yesterday, I made a recommendation about GHIZAO that was met with plenty of comment – at both extremes! Some felt I was well off the mark, others thought that I was correct in my assessment of his ability. What I would say is that Paul Nicholls is a trainer of habit and, having won the Cheltenham race with brilliant 2-miler Azertyuiop, he is unlikely to send a back-number to contest this years renewal. He will think a lot of GHIZAO and had enough confidence in his ability to have a bet on him LTO (see RP comments). If Nicholls has another Arkle chaser in his stable, then it must be very, very good indeed.
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