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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday 16 November 2010
Venetia Williams makes long trip to Folkestone
After the brilliant racing of the weekend, there was little to set the juices flowing yesterday.
I was right to avoid a wager on the 17f h’cap chase at Plumpton as it went to chase debutant Mister Stickler whose win brought in the hat-trick for trainer Alan King. The horse that most interested me in the race was Owner Occupier (was 9/1 in the morning) who started at 12/1. He was well there, having led most, when falling 4-out and although I don’t think he’d have won (Mister Stickler looks capable of going-on from this) I reckon he could have held-on to be 3rd.
The 25/1 available on GAUVAIN for the Champion Chase with William Hill has now been snapped-up, with the best odds now being 14/1.
Kauto Star has been confirmed as going straight to Kempton on Boxing Day for the King George, thereby missing the Hennessey. While this is good news for Kauto fans, it puts a lot of pressure on Denman in the Hennessey where he’ll carry 11st 12lb again.
There are two fairly ordinary meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone.
There is nothing I fancy at Fakenham.
The going at Folkestone is soft/heavy. There is only one race here that captures my interest and that’s the 2m5f Class 3 h’cap chase at 2:40. Only 7 runners, and Oncle Kid and Gaora Lane don’t look capable of winning anything. Stradbrook didn’t take to fences when last seen over them and did not find his old form when reverting to hurdles – can’t have. Zarrafakt is sent by inform trainer Emma Lavelle (7 wins from 12 runners last 14-days) but, as such, odds of 11/4 don’t reflect the chance of this chasing debutant, and personally I do not think his hurdle form last season was up to much. Raymond and Sporting Rebel will battle it out for the lead from the off (or should do on known form) and that should set things up for PLEIN POUVIOR. Trainer Venetia Williams has found the winners enclosure a couple of times recently, and she is 5 wins from 21 runners in chases at Folkestone. The trip of 21f and soft/heavy going are what PLEIN POUVIOR need to show his best form and hopefully, he’ll stalk the leaders and pick them off close to home. Unfortunately, PLEIN POUVIOR opened at 11/2 early this morning, but has already seen support and is now best-priced at 9/2. With only 7 runners there is not much point in going each-way, so I’ll recommend a small wager on PLEIN POUVIOR.
Folkestone 2:40 PLEIN POUVIOR, 1pt win @ 9/2 (don’t take any less)
The Tote Ten To Follow (TTTF)
The weekend’s racing at Cheltenham must have really messed-up a lot of entries. Neither LITTLE JOSH nor GAUVAIN were on the list of horses able to be chosen. If they both continue to maintain their form then there will be a lot more pressure to find the winners of the some of the more “obscure” races through the remainder of the season, especially if Little Josh follows-up in the Boylesports and Gauvain wins the Champion Chase and one or another of this seasons other top 2-mile chases. As for my lines, they are already looking a bit weary as I heavily banked-on Mad Max and Poquelin, and (unfortunately) decided against including Weird Al who’s deat-heat with Little Josh at Carlisle is now looking like top-notch form.
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