2nd anniversary of the Wayward Lad blog

The 446th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Today being the 1st March, I am reminded that about this time 2-years ago I wrote my 1st blog page. Now, 445 pages later, I'm here again today – and it's made me think back to where it all started.

I've been a follower of horseracing ever since I was a 7yo and my earliest encounter was when my mum open the old "broadsheet" edition of the Daily Express (then Britain's most popular newspaper) on the table and as my which horse would win the Derby. My 6d eachway (that is 2½ pence in "new money) went on Ribocco ridden by Lester Piggott who ran 2nd (to Royal Palace) at 7/1 and the rest is history. With a (tiny) profit from my first wager, the bug had bitten me. In the months and years that followed, countless notebooks were filled with selections and records of placings and odds – and many a time I went thru' the card (which shows that sometimes the simplest way of finding winners is the best). Secondary school (as I failed my 11-plus) put a stop to the notebooks, but I remember producing my first tentative "odds-line" for the 1972 Grand National as a 12yo having bought a copy of Racing & Football Outlook at Ormskirk railway station. My first job at the age of 20 (having dropped-out of polytechnic) meant I had disposable money to play the horses properly, but what those who are aged under 40 don't perhaps realise is that the race-form in the newspapers in those days (1980's) was pretty chronic. The Sporting Chronicle – which was my preferred paper – went under in the mid-1980's and I never really liked the Sporting Life, except when the Waterloo Cup coverage was on from the coursing grounds of nearby Altcar. However, it wasn't until I went to Hong Kong for work in 1990 (aged 30) and acquired a basic computer that my horseracing education started to accelerate. With a maximum of 2 meetings a week, I was able to produce my own formbook with ratings and commentary on the computer and, as a result, pulled-off some tremendous coups. On returning to the UK in 1997, personal circumstances meant that horseracing was not a priority. All that changed in 2001, when with a new computer and the discovery of the betting exchanges (first "Flutter", then Betfair when that  exchange bought-out the former). In order to bring some "order" to my wagering (I don't consider myself a gambler as I make informed decisions to alleviate as much risk as possible) I started keeping spread-sheet records of my wagers. From that, I swiftly saw the benefit of keeping a diary account of why I was placing the wagers in the first place. Keeping the diary made a huge impact on my profit margins in that I reduced the number of individual wagers, but the percentage of wagers that were successful jumped-up; from a 20% strike-rate to a 30% strike-rate.

As such, I've kept a racing diary ever since, with the principle behind it being that I am writing to convince another to place their money on my selection. If I can't convince myself thru' my diary – and many a time I start with one selection in mind and end up on another, which is successful – then I walk away from the race. In September of 2009, on being unemployed and with the likelihood of that unemployment continuing for a significant period (I actually thought I'd not work in my professional capacity again) I started wagering on horseracing full-time. That winter, I was able to keep myself afloat financially and, as a result of my personal success, I started writing the blog.

Yesterday's 2m4f hurdle at Bangor eventually went to Big Easy. His odds drifted thru' the day from 7/4 in the morning to 7/2 at the off, in fact he didn't start the fav for the race. That honour went to Cantlow who started at 3/1 having been gambled on thru' the day (he was as long at 7/1 in the morning) and he ran a complete stinker of a race. Big Easy tho' ran a solid race tho' his hurdling was sketchy and he did his best not to win despite being much the best horse in the race.  I had my "trade" in the race on the eventual runner-up Timesawastin as he was a confirmed front-runner who was favoured by the drop in trip to 2m4f. I managed to obtain odds of 14.0 on Betfair (he opened on-course at 11/1 with an SP of 15/2) and traded-out at 6.80 for a substantial profit. I must admit, I didn't expect Timesawastin to run as well as he did and he nearly had the race handed to him with Big Easy clattering the final flight, but I'm happy with the profit I secured.

My trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 35 trades / 20 "wins" / 9 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +40.1%.

I can't see much worth a wager today, but I am interested in Peter Bowen's DERWEN PRYDE in the 3:30 at Ludlow as Bowen does have a great record with 3-mile hurdlers. In the following race, a 3-mile chase at 4:00, Cootehill looks the most obvious winner at first-glance, but do not under-estimate CHECKERBOARD at 16/1. He goes well right-handed and has been racing at a higher level than this for his past couple of outings. Also, last June he ran well off a 1lb lower mark to be 2nd at Aintree and, in my mind, he should be under 8/1 for this if not at even shorter odds.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that you get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. So, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information. If you are a regular visitor, please add this blog to your list of favourites.
All comments are welcome.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.