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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday, 3 March 2012

Tremendous 16/1 winner yesterday

The 438th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A cracking result for the blog yesterday when, from just 2 selections, I found the 16/1 winner FRENCH TIES. I thought he was a good bet at his morning odds of 10/1, as my opinion was that he was a 9/2 chance in the race – so when he drifted out to 16/1 (and I was on at 23.0 on Betfair just minutes before the off) he just had to be backed. He was given a cracking ride by Alan O’Keefe – who I consider a much under-rated jockey – being dropped out early and was still last 6-out, however he jumped upside the leader 4-out and went on from there. FRENCH TIES is a real monkey when he wants to be, but he’s got a lot of speed and he may be worth another wager NTO in this form. My other selection VALID POINT was looking very strong in 3rd when falling at the 4th-last and I reckon had he stayed up he’d have been thereabouts. That was 8.60pts profit on the day from the 2pts staked.

Saturdays can be a bit more tricky to find value as so many more people have a wager and all the more likely winners contract in price from early morning onwards. At Doncaster, the Grimthorpe Chase at 3:25 over 3m2f could see a return to the winners enclosure for BENNY BE GOOD. Only 7 go to post in this race and with some having their eye on the Grand National, I reckon BENNY BE GOOD can relish a return to better going today – he is not a soft/heavy going sort of horse. Only 11/2 at best (Betfred) and with 11st 12lb to carry, it will be tough.

Champion jockey AP McCoy makes the long trip to Kelso to ride Nicky Henderson’s MASTER OF THE HALL in the 4:10 with National winner Ballabriggs in opposition. He’s only 2/1 tho’ and those odds are too short for me. He also rides Henderson’s Captain Conan, in the earlier 3:35, but I made a note of BURY PARADE and he could be a lot better than OR132 and give the southern raider a fright – and he’s 10/1 as I write too!

At Newbury, Fair Along has never won a jumps race between 1st Jan and 30th June, so he may be worth opposing in the 2:40 there. I’ve never thought of Niche Market as a proper stayer as he has no gears at the business end of a race, and Marufo has won only at easy Southwell as a chaser. Ouzbeck will love the ground, but he’s another who likes the sun on his back. As such, if BLAZING BAILEY can recapture his form of this time last year when he won at Ffos Las off OR146 (goes off OR142 today) he can take this at 9/1.

On ething I am glad about is that Zarrafakt is not running today, and remains on target for the JLT Chase on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival.

No wagers today, but I would not put anyone off having a punt (eachway) on BLAZNG BAILEY.
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1 comment:

  1. With Cheltenham just around the corner you are bang in form.


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