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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Cheltenham Festival - Day-2
Day-2 of the Cheltenham Festival.
What a brave effort from FRUITY O’ROONEY in trying to make-all and only losing the lead in the final 100 yards. We came close to pulling-off one of the big handicaps, but only took 2pts profit instead of 12. The antepost wager on CUE CARD for the Arkle (½pt ew @ 9/1) came good as he ran out a clear 2nd behind Sprinter Sacre, returning a 0.625pt profit which is what I will take. However, those who read the blog and played the “without the fav” market were rewarded with odds of 3/1, and a 3pt profit. I should have stuck to my original plan (see my Festivla Bulletin) and played the “w/o the fav” market in the Champion Hurdle with ROCK ON RUBY, but I chose the wrong one in ZARKANDAR, and lost 1pt there. We also lost 1pt on BLESS THE WINGS; so we ended the day 0.625pts in profit.
Remember, you don’t have to find the winner. With CUE CARD, we won more in the w/o the fav market than being on the winner Sprinter Sacre!
1:30 – National Hunt (novice) Chase (Amateur riders): 4 miles
With an OR146 rating, TEAFORTHREE is the highest rated in the race, and looks (based on his close 2nd at Cheltenham on 12Nov to Join Together) potentially well treated. We know he stays well, is a prominent runner and handles the track and going, and won LTO (sounds like I’m describing Fruity O’Rooney). What more can you want? Harry The Viking is probably 4lb well-in (thru’ OR134, Ikorodu Road who won LTO), but he’s no value at 6/1. It’s hard to see a winner from outside the market leaders, but this race can be a graveyard for leading hopes.
2:05 – Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle: 2-mile & 5-furlongs
SIMONSIG looks very strong in this race based on his LTO win and, unless the Irish have a surprise, he should be the winner in a race in which shocks are rare events. Monksland could be the best of the Irish chances. There could also be a strong challenge from Batonnier, who has improved with every run and won at Cheltenham LTO.
2:40 – RSA Chase (novices): 3-mile & 110 yards
GRANDS CRUS goes for this instead of the Gold Cup, and he cannot be opposed. I expected him to win the Gold Cup if he went for that race and I really think he should be odds-on for this as he wasn’t even stretched when easily beating Bobs Worth (the 2nd fav) at Kempton on Boxing Day.
3:20 – Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase: 2-miles
I have SIZING EUROPE about 14lb clear of Finian’s Rainbow and, with Big Zeb on a recovery mission, the race fav looks as near a certainty to win as you can get. I am surprised he’s not a lot shorter in odds and I’d have him long odds-on at 2/5. I think we’ve seen that with Finian’s Rainbow, his best isn’t good enough, and so the only opposition to SIZING EUROPE is in Big Zeb. If Big Zeb could be guaranteed a clear round of jumping, he’d be closer to making a race of it but, I can’t see that happening.
4:00 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle: 2-miles & 5-furlongs
At last, a race to get my teeth into. Ideally, you want a horse that has already won this season, is 7yo or younger, and is carrying between 10st 10lb – 11st 3lb (inclusive). Only First Fandango (of since 26-Nov)and Tenor Nivernais fit these criteria and, of those TENOR NIVERNAIS looks well-suited to take this race. He ran a good race when 7th in the Fred Winter last year when staying-on, and he’s won twice this season since finding his form (Venetia Williams is always a slow starter to the jumps season). A front-runner, he will stay the trip and relish this sort of race. At 33/1 he looks very interesting. We are already on antepost for ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 and I’m inclined to double that.
Selection: TENOR NIVERNAIS, ½pt eachway @ 33/1 (Betfred, BOG, ¼ odds 1,2,3,4,5)
4:40 – Fred Winter Junvenile Handicap Hurdle: 2-miles & 110 yards
This looks a tricky race to get a hold of. I am not a fan of 4yo hurdlers and so I am giving this race a miss. It looks wide open with only 5 of the 24 starters at odds less than 25/1.
5:15 – Champion Bumper: 2-miles & 110 yards
At the recent Preview night I attended, the only “bumper” horse to get a mention was COOL GEORGE. He is 33/1 (Bet365) and, before I go any further, I will not be having a wager on this race.
Several of these races look uncompetitive and, as such, it could be a disappointing day for the punter. Short fav’s can be beaten, as happened to HURRICANE FLY. As such, I do not like having wagers at less than 3/1. So, just the single eachway wager on TENOR NIVERNAIS. I am at the races on Wednesday, so tomorrows blog may be a little late (and brief).
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