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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 21 March 2012
Bread & Butter profits
Yesterday, I should really have been a bit braver when considering the chances of SEA SAFFRON in the 2m7f & 110 yards novice hurdle that closed the Exeter meeting. The horse had won at Exeter over fences and all of his career wins had come at this time of year. So, the horse clearly likes the course and enjoys the "spring" sunshine on his back. The only realistic opposition he had in the race – which was filled with dubious stayers – was the short-priced fav Kowloon, who needed to confirm the form shown LTO was no "fluke". As such, even at 6/1 in the morning, he was worth a wager as if Kowloon didn't show-up (and, as it happened, he didn't) then Sea SAFFRON was most likely to benefit. He had the race won from 2-out and was eased-down on the run-in to come home a 13/2 winner.
My "trading" on Betfair continues to provide me with "bread & butter" profits. Yesterday, Newport Arch in the 4:50 at Southwell was my 'back-to-lay' play and I managed to obtain 7.40 at lunchtime and was easily able to trade-out at 3.60 in-running, in fact the horse traded below 2.20 when looking the potential winner about a furlong out. My trading record since 1st January is now: Trades = 46; Wins = 27; Trade-outs = 6; Losses = 13. The increase in trading "bank" = 438% and Return On Investment (ROI) = 46.90% (ie. 43.77pts profit from 93.42pts staked).
At Haydock the 4:25, which is a 2m4f handicap chase, looks interesting. Some of my favourite handicappers are racing in this; Chance Du Roy, You Know Yourself, Bold Sir Brian – but also TIGER O'TOOLE who I was most disappointed for when balloted-out of his race at last week's Cheltenham Festival. I can't make a firm selection at this stage, I'm going to have to spend some more time on this race over lunch before deciding on to have a wager or not. I cannot see anything of interest at either Hereford or Warwick.
Some good response to yesterday's blog on Channel 4 tv securing sole terrestrial broadcasting rights to horseracing for the next 4 years, and (on-course) bookmakers needing to think about how they present their business. "The Laird" is right in saying that the BBC coverage was always innovative from the camera on the truck, to the "eye-in-the-sky". Where the BBC fell down in recent years was in their overall management, as they do not like horseracing. In fact, all animal related activities (bar One Man & His Dog) have been given the elbow. We no longer have show-jumping (not Hickstead, nor the Horse of the Year show at Wembley Arena), nor greyhound racing (The TV Trophy was a staple of the 1960's & 70's), Badminton (despite royal patronage) has gone, so has Crufts dog show, and now horse-racing. Expect the "country-life" programmes to focus only on agriculture in future!
Personally, I hope Channel 4 bring back the extended morning coverage on Grand National day, starting with Morning Line at 8am and rolling right through the day till 5pm with a focus on all the principal runners and the stories behind the entries. Let's get horseracing on tv to be more about horses, people and country life in general, and less about gambling.
As for on-course bookmakers, unless they think outside the box and change the way they present their business radically, they are dead in the water. It could be that we have "fixed-stake" bookies, ie they only take £10 win bets and the boards would show returns to a £10 bet and not odds. So instead of offering 10/1, they could shout "Red Rum pays £110", or – to work an edge on other bookies, offer £112. That way, it keeps things simple for the casual punter.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.