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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday, 15 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival 2012 - Day-3

The only selection TENOR NIVERNAIS was disappointing and, very early on, it was obvious that he was not enjoying the going. That said, the narrative provided not only the winner, but the forecast for the 1st race on the card with TEAFORTHREE beating HARRY THE VIKING into 2nd. I hope readers were braver than me, as the Exacta paid 29/1. SIMONSIG then followed-up in the Neptune but, as I don't like recommending selections at less than 3/1 (especially at the Festival), again the choice of whether or not to play the selection was down to the reader. With red-hot fav's GRANDS CRUS and SIZING EUROPE both being beaten in the next couple of races, you can see why I don't recommend betting at short odds.  We go into the 3rd day with the blog showing slight loss of 0.375pts so far this week.

It was great to meet old friends, and new ones, at the track yesterday.

1:30 – Jewson Novices Chase: 2-mile & 4-furlongs
Only the 2nd time this race has been run, and Peddlers Cross comes here instead of the Arkle (in which he'd have been well beaten). Much as I love the horse, I can't see him winning as he just does not look a natural chaser. This trip will suit him better than 2-mile, but the horse will be better over 3-mile. Sir Des champs won at the Festival in 2011 and that will hold him in good stead, especially as the runner-up in that race – Son Of Flicka – won the Coral Cup on Wednesday. For me, this race is between CHAMPION COURT and SOLIX and, on chase form, I cannot split them. SOLIX was by far the better hurdler and, with Henderson in such good form, he gets the vote, but I'm going to sit this race out..

2:05 – Pertemps final (handicap Hurdle): 3-miles
This looks a tough race to crack and will revolved around Buena Vista who will try and repeat the tactics of his last two victories in this race; as such, you need a horse that will be "in-the-van" as they won't come from behind in this. Kayf Aramis (who won this in 2009) has a place chance, and Across The Bay should also be thereabouts. If Dermot Weld has rekindled Prince Erik (2nd in 2010) he could also go well, but Buena Vista looks weighted to make the hat-trick with the 10lb claimer in the saddle, it's just his odds don't represent value.

2:40 – Ryanair Chase: 2-mile & 5-furlongs
This is my "make-or-break" race of the Festival. have been a long-term supporter of NOBLE PRINCE for this race, and think he holds an excellent chance in this race. The going and weather will be near identical to that faced by Albertas Run when he won this in both 2010 & 2011, but NOBLE PRINCE also won on this day last season in tremendous style. I have already advised a 2pt win wager on NOBLE PRINCE and honestly reckon he should be shorter than 3/1 today. I am expecting SOMERSBY to follow the selection home, and antepost followers are on at 16/1 at 1pt eachway. If you are not already on NOBLE PRINCE  antepost, then he is the selection at 13/2 or longer today for 2pts win..

3:20 – Ladbroke World Hurdle: 3-miles
I have been a fan of BIG BUCKS ever since I saw him win the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January 2009 and he has never failed me since. Nobody knows just how good this horse is as no horse has yet been capable of pushing him. Will Oscar Whisky do it? Well, the last horse to win the World hurdle after taking part in a Champion Hurdle was Nomadic Way in 1992, so it can be done. But, many others have failed in the intervening years. With the doubt over Oscar Whisky having enough stamina, THOUSAND STARS who has won over 3-mile and is a class 2-mile hurdler himself, could follow BIG BUCKS home and at 11/2 without the fav (Corals) that for me is the value.

4:00 – Byrne Group Plate (Handicap) chase: 2-miles & 5-furlongs
Early notes are that CRACK AWAY JACK is thrown-in off OR142. He should have won his chase race here last November but for sustaining a bad cut to his leg mid-race. For me, THE COCKNEY MACKEM is knocking on the door of a win and his form reads well in respect of this race./ He likes to race prominently too, and that is no bad thing as we have seen already this Festival. At 25/1 (William Hill and Betfred) he's the eachway wager.

Selection: THE COCKNEY MAKEM, ¼pt eachway @ 25/1 (BOG, places 1,2,3,4)

4:40 – Kim Muir Handicap Chase: 3-mile, 1-furlong & 110 yards.
Jockeyship is the key, and Mr R O Harding on BRACKLOON HIGH cannot be ignored. Not only that, but he likes to race prominently and he has the stamina for this. He's also a LTO winner, what more can you want?

Selection: BRACKLOON HIGH,  ¼pt eachway @ 14/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG, places 1,2,3,4)

Total = 5pts staked (including 3pts already staked antepost on SOMERSBY and NOBLE PRINCE)

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