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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 2 March 2012
Come on Kauto Star
I thought I'd won a stonking wager yesterday on the 4:00 at Ludlow. As there was a slight lengthening of the odds on COOTEHILL at about lunchtime to 7.40/7.60, I decided to jump in and take advantage as I thought he really should have been trading around 4.20/4.40. The reason for the slight drift was the over-optimistic support for the Phil Hobbs trained Fairoak Lad who was returning from injury and a 17-month lay-off, and probable misplaced expectation of Venetia Williams working the oracle on Maraafeq. As such, both these horses were trading at odds much shorter than I thought they were worthy of, therefore when I saw the 7.40/7.60 available for COOTEHILL there was no reason not to take advantage. Sure enough, about an hour before the off the money started to come for COOTEHILL and he eventually started at odds of 7/2 (4.70/4.80 on the exchanges). Fairoak Lad was the first to crack, feeling the effects of his long lay-off and he was outpaced from 4-out tho' he did stay-on. Next was Maraafeq before 2-out, and that left COOTEHILL in front with only chasing debutant Drumbaloo still on the case. COOTEHILL went under 1.30 in-running on the exchanges and really I should have taken some profit then but, with the expected dangers all beaten, I thought the win was in the bag. I never consider chasing debutants, especially in handicap races, and I didn't even think Drumbaloo would stay the trip of 3-mile anyway as he'd never won beyond 2m4f and he didn't seem to stay the 2m6f at Sandown in December over hurdles. He had won a point-to-point in Ireland over 3-mile tho' (as I discovered after the race). Anyway, COOTEHILL hit the last, found nothing more on the run-in and was caught and passed by Drumbaloo. I was seriously gutted. The only consolation was that I laid-off my stake at 3.60 mid-race. COOTEHILL was my intended back-to-lay trade, but I thought he had such a great chance of winning the race that I only laid-off my stake.
My trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 36 trades / 20 "wins" / 9 "losses" / 7 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +37.90%.
Plenty of Cheltenham news yesterday, the most devastating being that KAUTO STAR suffered a bad fall in a schooling jump in training and Paul Nicholls announced on twitter at 17:10 that the horse was only 50/50 to get to the Festival and return for another attempt at the Gold Cup. I'll be honest, I've opposed KAUTO STAR in every one of his Gold Cup races but, for me, the Gold Cup without KAUTO STAR would be a very poor show, he makes the race. What it will probably mean is that Grands Crus and Medermit will most likely take in the Gold Cup rather than the RSA and Ryanair respectively. I was disappointed to see Paul Nicholls on the receiving end of (what I consider) unwelcome criticism on Twitter for not making an announcement last Saturday (the fall happened on Friday morning) but, be fair, had an announcement been made then it could have been considered scaremongering. Has everyone forgotten the Tom Taaffe / Kicking King Gold Cup fiasco in 2007?
Paul Nicholls has my support, and I sincerely hope that Kauto Star makes it to the Gold Cup for, what will most certainly be, his swansong.
While we all want news of horses regarding their condition, too much news can be a complete turn-off and I reckon would be dangerous for the sport. Think how the animal rights fanatics would make use of masses of daily news bulletins from professional horse trainers regarding their stable occupants?
The other news was a marked drift on the exchanges for PEDDLERS CROSS in the Arkle market, the supposition being that PEDDLERS CROSS was heading for the Jewson as his preferred Festival target. It's what I've been saying for some time on this blog and if he does switch to the Jewson then the betting for the Arkle will be tipped-up and I can see CUE CARD starting the 7/2, 2nd fav.
We've some good jumps racing today, especially at Newbury. The 2m1f h'cap chase (Class 3) at 2:55 will have some pace on from Marodima and Lord Singer, which looks like setting the race up for Niceonefrankie, but I'm not so sure. MARODIMA was raced over a trip too far in 2m5f LTO and today's trip will be perfect for him and, being a winner over 2m4f (and even 3-mile as a hurdler) he won't be stopping. Odds of 11/2 (Boylesports) and 5/1 available generally look generous to me, and he could be my "back-to-lay" trade.
The 2m6f & 110 yard h'cap chase at 3:30 also looks intriguing. I watched Railway Dillon run away with his race LTO, and I thought he'd be Cheltenham bound on the back of that performance. Running with a 7lb penalty for that win, he's still 8lb well-in off his revised h'cap mark, but he is carrying 12st today and weight and this trip is a quarter-mile further than LTO. Paul Nicholls has his only runner here today in this, but No Loose Change will be making his chasing debut and will; need to find plenty of improvement to figure. Nicky Henderson has a couple in it, and of the pair I prefer the "2nd-string" Carabinier (best odds 10/1) as the 6yo won LTO and that performance could be the making of him. Barry Geraghty rides Larks Lad, but he looks exposed. The one I like best in this is VALID POINT, sent by Jim Old. A progressive hurdler, he's only had the one chase but in my opinion he ran well enough in that to suggest his future is bright over fences. We also know for sure that he will stay this trip and at 12/1 (Boylesport, Paddy Power & Bet365) he's worth an eachway wager.
Lastly, the 4:35 which is a 2m4f h'cap chase also looks worthy of interest. The fav is Ballyallia Man and if he converts his novice form to this handicap then he will be tough to beat. However, in a race with a fair amount of dross in, FRENCH TIES could be capable of taking this race on his best form. I say best form as he can spit the dummy out, but that means his odds are 10/1 when really if he were more consistent he'd be 2nd-fav for this race at 9/2. He should have won LTO, but threw the race away idling in front and if he can repeat his form of his latest win over 2m4f then he will be bang there today.
Newbury 3:30, VALID POINT, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365, BOG)
Newbury 4:35, FRENCH TIES, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Blue Square)
Total = 2pts staked
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