The 455th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Just the one selection on Saturday and, just like last year, I set-up followers of the blog on a winning footing going into the Cheltenham Festival. BUFFALO BOB was at silly odds in the morning, and I hope followers took the 9/2 offered by Stan James or, if not, the 4/1 offered by just about everyone else. He turned the race into a procession after going-off the 7/4 fav and tho' he tied-up on the run-in he always had the race in the bag. As a result, I have updated my 2011-12 Selections record page and I am happy to advise readers that since 1st November 2010 (that's over 16 months ago) I have advised 229 wagers on the blog at cumulative stakes of 246pts (I wager to £40 a point), with the profit being 31.6525pts, that's a return on investment (ROI) of 12.87% . Many a "professional" tipster who charges does not make a long-term profit, so I am proud of my overall performance especially as the blog is free to view.
Cheltenham this week looks particularly inviting and (with luck) I'm hoping to have a successful Festival. I sent out another antepost update last night with a long-odds selection in the Coral Cup and the more I look at this one, the better a feeling I get. Those who have donated to the blog and are on my email list will receive Cheltenham blogs the evening before racing (hopefully before 10pm). The blog will go online at about 9:30am each day of the Festival. As I am at Cheltenham on Wednesday, it is possible that Thursdays blog may be in "draft" on Wednesday evening – but I will do my best.
Onto today, and what a decent start to the week, with 3 jumps meetings at Taunton, Stratford and Plumpton. At Taunton, I cannot see much but I do like FATHER PROBUS in the 2:50 as he seems to have got his act together and I do like a horse that comes out again quickly after a win and this looks a weak race on paper. Paul Nicholls has his only runner of the day here in the 3:50, Egypt Mill Spirit. Given Nicholls has a 34% strike-rate with his hurdlers here, I am surprised that there isn't more support for the horse.
At Plumpton, HOBB'S DREAM in the 4:30 should take some beating. When a horse that's won comes out again within a week it is always worth taking notice and, altho' I don't keep the stats, I believe that they have a very high success race. Emma Lavelle has her only runner of the day at Plumpton, Beau Colonel in the 5:00. There are 8-runners in this race and with Lavelle's horse trying this trip out for the first time and needing to make a huge improvement to be involved, the fact he's taking a large share of the market at 5/1 suggests there is some ew value in this race. I may have a "place-only" wager on Zimbabwe in this race as he's available at 12/1 and while he's most unlikely to beat the 13/8 fav Oscar Charlie, he should run well enough to be placed..
Finally Stratford, and LTO winner TUSKAR ROCK looks very strong in the 3:40, a 2m7f class 3 handicap chase. He's 11/4 with the likes of Best Odds Guaranteed bookies like Ladbrokes and Bet365 and that looks fair value in what could be an ordinary race for the grade.
No selections today, gearing-up for Cheltenham instead.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that you get enjoyment from it.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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