The 450th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections over the weekend, but then regular readers of the blog will know that I am a patient man when it comes to finding a worthwhile wager. I'd much rather keep my money for another day than throw it at speculative selections and, with Cheltenham next week, we'll have good use for those funds soon. Readers will also note that I have corrected the numbering error on the blog – this is the 450th edition.
We have just a single meeting at Hereford today over the jumps, and the opportunities look slight. I'll probably be opposing the fav SCHISM in the 3:45 but I'm not sure what with at the moment. SCHISM seems weaker in the market that anticipated in this morning's Racing Post and he's currently quoted at 5/2 with several books and that looks fair, so perhaps I won't oppose him after all.
There is an interesting chase over 2m3f at 4:45, and the horse that stands out in this race – if he's in the right mood – is PHIDIPPIDES. He's not completed on his latest couple of chases, but he's not been out of the 1st-3 on his 4 completed chase starts and a repeat of the form of his win at Ludlow (a right-handed track like Hereford) last March over 2m4f will see him take this I reckon. He started the 4/1 fav for his last start on 1st Jan and he pulled-up, so supporting him is a leap of faith that he has not lost interest in the game. He is 6/1 for this and – to be fair – that is not generous enough yet. I'm looking for odds of 10/1 or greater but, if I knew he was in the right mood, then I reckon he's a 3/1 chance maybe even shorter.
I did not have a trade on Saturday and I did not update my trading record on my Saturday blog either. I had a successful trade on Friday (French Ties, who eventually won) and my trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 37 trades / 20 "wins" / 9 "losses" / 7 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +45.20% (that's 29.69pts profit on 65.63pts staked).
Plenty of Cheltenham news over the weekend, and it looks more likely that KAUTO STAR will line-up for the Gold Cup in 11-days' time as he completed another strong canter on Sunday morning. Altho' the weekends rain has had an immediate effect on the ground at Cheltenham, I cannot see the going being slower than good-to-soft on Day-1 and I'm expecting watering to-re-commence before the end of this week to guarantee that going prediction. For those who have donated to the blog, Antepost Update Nr.04 was sent out on Saturday evening. If you want a copy of this update and future antepost updates for the Cheltenham Festival and a copy of the Cheltenham Festival Bulletin which I sent out on 15th February , then make a donation of at least £5. Tomorrow evening I will be attending a Festival Preview night in London – courtesy of Coral – and I'll be writing a review of that night with (hopefully) some juicy news in Wednesdays blog. I will also be tweeting from the venue on Tuesday evening, so look out for tweets from @wayward_lad.
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