No selections yesterday following the 25/1 winner given on Wednesday. Many thanks to those who donated from their winnings, it is certainly well appreciated.
Onto today and the 1st day of the "Open" Meeting at Cheltenham. There are a stack of horse alert runners today, here goes:-
Cheltenham 1:05 STANDING OVATION, HANDY ANDY, IMPERIAL CIRCUS, RUBEN COTTER
Cheltenham 1:35 RENARD, THEATRICAL STAR, PARSNIP PETE, BALLYGARVEY
Cheltenham 2:05 THE ROMFORD PELE
Cheltenham 2:40 UPSWING
Cheltenham 3:15 VIKING BLOND
Cheltenham 3:50 MAXI CHOP
Newcastle 1:45 NEXT SENSATION
There will be a lot of support about Standing Ovation to win for the 5th time in as many weeks and, with just a 7lb penalty for his latest win meaning (effectively) he's on OR127, he looks well-in. The handicapper has hiked him up 13lb in the ratings to OR133 for that win, and while that may be too much, today off 6lb less he has a favorites chance, but he's not a 6/4 chance - more like a 5/2 chance. I've a feeling that his amateur rider won't be able to hold him back and he'll use up vital energy mid-race (he wandered a bit on the run-in for his latest win) and he could be vulnerable on the Cheltenham hill. From my alert list, Handy Andy should have won here LTO but was left alone for too long in the lead. He will benefit from having Standing Ovation in the race, but that may not be enough. Imperial Circus is up 7lb for winning a weak race LTO and he's only ever won with Richard Johnson riding. That leaves RUBEN COTTER who won his debut chase beating the useful Vintage Star by 8-lengths. RUBEN COTTER was rated OR139 off that race but, unfortunately, fell NTO at Wincanton. I'm expecting him to be a 150+ chaser this season so, off OR139 today; he can run a big race. Current odds of 10/1 look very attractive with Bet Victor and Bet365.
The 2-mile chase at 1:35 is a race I've been waiting for, as RENARD returns to his optimum trip having ben campaigned over 2m4f+ for his last 3 races. As such, his rating has dropped from OR139 in March to OR129 today. Based on his 2nd at Chepstow last Feb over 2m1f, I rate him 145 at his best, which suggests he's thrown-in here off OR129.He was well there LTO until 2-out when 7th behind Johns Spirit over 2m4f, and so he comes here race-fit and running for a trainer bang in form. Of the others, Theatrical Star is best at 2m4f or thereabouts and has 15lb to find with RENARD; Ballygarvey beat RENARD when they last met in that Chepstow race in Feb but they meet today on 19lb worse terms for the 4-length deficit. Finally, Parsnip Pete is rated 8lb higher than his last chase win and then he beat Kruzhlinin who has found his forte as a 3-mile chaser. I feel that his OR133 rating may not have enough scope for improvement in what will be a competitive race (he flopped at Cheltenham when faced with 22 rivals off OR134). RENARD looks a handicap snip.
The Romford Pele is in a 4-horse race which will no doubt be tactical, and Viking Blond is in the Cross-Country chase which (I feel) will not play to his strength which is stamina; so I'm passing them both over. Maxi Chop was carried over from last year's alert list following his good run in February, but (on reflection) he's not developing quickly enough and probably should have been dropped before now.
As a reward to donators this week following my 25/1 winner, I sent out my advice on selection RENARD last night when he was available at 8/1 with Bet Victor. Now he's best-priced at 6/1 and, while still a good wager, is not as good as last night. RENARD is my first maximum 2-star (2pts) selection of this season, and I have a great record with my 2pt selections, so I'm very confident. They can't all win, of course, but I'd price RENARD at 3/1 for this race if I were a bookmaker.
Selections:
Cheltenham 1:05 RUBEN COTTER, £5 eachway @ 10/1 (use a BOG bookie like Bet Victor or Bet365)
Cheltenham 1:35 RENARD, £40 win (or 2pts) @ 8/1 (Currently 6/1 across the board, but I'm taking 8/1 as those are the odd I obtained last night.)
Total Stakes £50
Not the best of days.
ReplyDeleteRuben Cotter looked like he didn't stay this 3-mile trip and was beaten a long way out. Unfortunately for me, HANDY ANDY won. Regular readers will know I tipped HANDY ANDY the last time he ran when he threw away the race after leading on the Cheltenham run-in by 7-lengths with 150 yards to run.
Renard was most disappointing. Never in the race from the off, his jockey was continually pushing him. Stable jockey thought before the race he wasn't fast enough for this, but I think the pace was so strong from the off that he was outstayed, as he picked-up the leaders at the top of the hill but had nothing more in the final half-mile.
Keep up the good work - there are plenty more winners to come !
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