What can I say? The blog came back with a bang!
Just the one selection yesterday, and what a selection. From the moment I opened the Racing Post website (I don't buy the newspaper version) on my way into work at 6:30am, MIDNIGHT APPEAL stood out as an exceptional wager – and best odds at that time were 14/1. By the time I arrived at my desk, he was 25/1 with Ladbrokes (20/1 elsewhere) and the wager was a "no-brainer". As I wrote yesterday, in season 2011-12 MIDNIGHT APPEAL was a very decent chaser running 9 times in 12 months recording 5 wins and 3 placings, with a fall at Cheltenham when 10/1 for the "Kim Muir" Chase off OR136 denying him a 100% place record. He was then given a season of hurdling to exploit his lenient hurdle rating. As such, running off OR132 yesterday for his return to chasing, he was exceptionally leniently treated. All this I wrote hours before the race, this is not hindsight talking. I honestly thought he should have been at about 7/1. I did think Our Mick had a favorites chance and was (realistically) the most likely winner on most recent chasing form. But, with MIDNIGHT APPEAL at 25/1 the potential for a lucrative ew wager was enormous. It's highly likely Our Mick did not handle the heavy ground (it was soft, heavy in places) and I'd keep faith in him NTO.
I know a fair few people read the blog yesterday before the race (by my stats, there were 351 visits), and a good number sent congratulations afterwards. So I'm hoping that those who had a successful wager on the back of that tip have the good grace to make a donation. Remember, I'm not tipping 7/4 chances and asking for £100 a month for the privilege, nor am I giving readers the names of 10 or 12 horses and then shouting my praises for having 1 or 2 winners a day from that double-handful. I bet myself (usually double or triple the stakes advised) on what I write about. Many thanks to those who have donated from their winnings, some very generously. This time last year I was considering going "subscription only" and, as it's easier for me to send out an email than to update my blog from my workplace, it would be no hardship for me to go subscription only. I have about 60 regular donators and they'd be the ones to benefit first.
There is only one runner from my alert list today, RYDALIS who runs in the 2:00 at Ludlow. She was a near winner LTO when only failing for lack of race fitness. I've thought this mare was a 125+ performer for some time and so, running off OR118 today, she has an enormous chance. Her odds tho' leave no room for error as she's 9/4 across the boards. Those are the lowest odds at which I recommend a wager, but I'm going to pass today as I don't think they offer value. There are a couple in this who look to have decent chances, Lava Lamp who won here at Ludlow LTO over 2m4f; Raduis Bleu who has proven to be a better chaser than hurdler; Jayandbee who will stay every yard; Inside Dealer who is a very experienced chaser on a favourable mark compared to his best efforts; and Kings Lodge who has undoubted class but has yet to perfect his jumping to show it. As such, I'd be happier recommending a wager on RYDALIS at odds of 4/1 or, better, 9/2 as there is no value in her current odds.
For new visitors to the blog following yesterday's 25/1 winner, I am essentially a value punter. That is I appraise a race and find a selection that should be one of the market leaders and, if the actual odds available are much greater than that (for instance, if I think the horse should be at odds of 4/1 and the actual price is 8/1) then I have a "value" wager. Next, I try and wager only on horses that I am familiar with and know the form of. I have created my own alert list of over 200 horses: each selected due to having shown form capable of winning races and having demonstrated a winning attitude. For instance before yesterday, Midnight Appeal had won 7 of his previous 17 races over a period of 2 years & 8 months. Finally, these horses have shown they are capable of form better than their current official rating. Hence, I try and wager only on horses from my alert list.
No selection today but I reckon I will have one tomorrow.
Profits this jumps season since the end of September are now £344.10 to advised stakes of £215; that's a return on investment (ROI) of £160%. Most tipsters who charge subscriptions brag about having an ROI of 20% to 30%. Unfortunately they cannot all win – I only wish they did – so there will be losing wagers. I will endeavour to keep them at a minimum. Betting on the horses is a long-term project with long-term profits the target. Remember, patience is the ultimate weapon for the punter.
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