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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 21 November 2013

Trainer Symonds earning respect

There was just the one alert list runner yesterday, BEAU DANDY in the 2:10 at Hexham. As I wrote on the blog, this is a 4-mile handicap chase on heavy ground was expected to be a right slog. And, although BEAU DANDY appeared well-treated on OR99, the question mark was the extreme trip. Sure enough, it found him out and he pulled-up having weakened before 3-out. He was running well up till then, handling the heavy ground as I knew he would. So, providing this hasn't taken too much out of him, should set him up for a return to the 3-mile trip (should he contest over that) when next on the track. This shows the value of having an alert list and knowing the horse you are wagering on.
There are 3 ordinary meetings today at Chepstow, Wincanton and Market Rasen. There is some tremendous racing this weekend with meetings at Haydock and Ascot, so it is no surprise that today's racing is fairly ordinary fare. We have a couple of alert runners today: SPANISH ARCH at Market Rasen in the 1:30; and FOXCUB at Wincanton in the 1:50.
Although SPANISH ARCH ran a good chase debut and is sure to improve for the experience, today's trip of 2m6f & 110 yards is, in my opinion, the wrong one for him. His trainer Charlie Longsdon is always trying his chasers over 3-mile (or thereabouts) as the targets available at that trip are more lucrative, but SPANISH ARCH has not shown himself to have the stamina for the trip. He will, in my opinion, show his best form around 2m4f. Current odds of 11/2 are poor value as they offer no scope for an eachway wager as I'm fairly sure the horse won't win this today unless there are exceptional circumstances.
I am more confident about FOXCUB at Wincanton. When I looked at the betting forecast in the Racing Post and saw 16/1 my hopes leapt. Unfortunately, he's only 10/1 at best with Stan James and Betfred. FOXCUB was outpaced LTO over 2-mile by a couple of decent 2-mile handicappers, with the winner winning again since. Over this 2m4f trip, we can expect to see some improvement from FOXCUB. There is support for Carrigmorna King, but I feel that one is already well-exposed as a hurdler. Beachfire isn't exactly proven at this trip to suggest he's a 4/1 chance, and will prove to be best at 2-mile. The Pauls Nicholls trained Sound Investment is badly handicapped on what he's shown to date, and will need to show improvement today. So far this season, the Nicholls stable has not been firing on all cylinders, and I'm banking on this horse not firing today leaving the Symonds trained FOXCUB to take the spoils.
I'm on FOXCUB eachway and he looks a fair value wager. Shame the Racing Post aren't bookmakers as I'd have bitten their hand off for offering 16/1.
Wincanton 1:50, FOXCUB, £5 win and £5 eachway @ 10/1 (with Betfred and Stan James who both go best odds guaranteed)
Total staked = £15

1 comment:

  1. Leading from 3-out, FOXCUB went into the final flight over 3-lengths ahead and with the race all-but-won, and fell - gutted!
    At least it is further confirmation (if I need it) that my alert list selection is right on the ball.
    This has to go down as an unlucky loser but, at some point, we will have luck on our side.