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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 22 November 2013

Foxcub: final flight faller

The fall at the final flight by blog selection FOXCUB when over 3-lengths clear and in no danger of being caught on the run-in, has to go down as a slice of bad luck. Clearly, the moral winner of the race, FOXCUB had travelled tremendously well thru'out and then took up the running before 3-out. He soon had the field under the cosh and they were spread-eagled on the run-up to the final flight. He skewed the flight chucking his jockey out the side-door. That now makes 2 recent races that we've lost when our selection has been well clear in the closing stages of the race as Handy Andy threw away his race when 8-lengths clear on the run-in on 18th October. With a bit of luck both Handy Andy (with an SP of 16/1) and Foxcub at 10/1 could have boosted the bank by £212.50. Such events test the resolve of the punter but at least I know that I'm on the right wavelength, and my selection procedure will be profitable in the long-term.
The other alert runner SPANISH ARCH clearly did not stay the 2m6f+ trip yesterday, but he did jump his fences very well and ran well at a good pace until his stamina faded. We'll take advantage when raced over a suitable trip. What such knowledge given yesterday gives the punter is that once the 2nd-fav in the race Suburban Boy pulled-up after making a bad error (when tired) there was nothing in the race to prevent the favourite, Present View, winning. Sure, the in-running odds were not great at the time but they were in the region of 1.80 - 2.10.
There are 3 meetings today at Haydock, Ascot and Ffos Las, but opportunities for a wager look scarce. Horse Alert runners are:-
Haydock 1:20 – SHANGANI
Haydock 2:30 – BLACK THUNDER and UP AND GO
Ascot looks a tricky meeting. Altho' I have 3 alert list horses in the 2:40, the market is extremely tight with 5 of the 7 runners at odds of 6/1 or less. My preference is for GREYWELL BOY but not at 3/1. The 3:15 has been won by a LTO winner for the past 5 years, and that is an interesting stat. WEISENTRAUM fits the stat having won LTO on his first attempt at 3-mile and, at 8/1, he could be a bit of value. But, this is a competitive race and the front couple in the market; Annacotty and Night Alliance are also both LTO winners. While I'm looking at Ascot, Jonjo O'Neill who has a good record here, only has the one runner today in the novice chase at 1:30 - TITCHWOOD – could be very interesting.
Haydock holds the first day of the Betfair Chase meeting and I'm expecting the ground to ride softer than "soft". Alert runner SHANGANI looks to have a chance in this as Venetia Williams has her chasers going well and she likes to have a winner at Haydock. But this 4-runner race could be a bit tactical, and I'll git it a miss. The race at 2:30 looks a cracker despite also having only 4-runners and we could have all 4 at joint fav's at 11/4, it really is that close a race. Personally, I prefer BLACK THUNDER as he looks the most unexposed.
The meeting at Ffos Las little of interest.
I'm not having a wager today, yesterday was a bit gutting and I'm more interested in finding a winner at decent odds that chasing 11/4 chances.

1 comment:

  1. Watch out for Urban Hymn in that Haydock Novice Hurdle definitely one to keep onside and is a horse I've got my eye on for the Albert Bartlett at this stage.