Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Day 1

Pull-up a chair, make sure that the door is locked and the phone is on silent. You need to have lunch ready in the fridge next to a couple of beers - this is going to be a Cheltenham Festival like no other! 

You are at home, so I hope you have managed to link-up with a few racing buddies online for a bit of banter.  My advice - you cannot hope to find the winner of every race, so don't even try.  

Some simple tips to avoid the losing wagers: 

Over 55% of all the Festival races are won by a last-time-out winner (LTO), and another 25% are won by a horse that ran 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time - that is 80% of all the winners over the past 10 years. Team this up with the fact that only a few races are won by a horse off a break of more than 84-days; the average period since a recent run by a winning horse is 49-days.
I've posted numerous blogs over the past few weeks with my thoughts on the Festival, and some more detailed analysis, so please take a look at the earlier blogs by scrolling down the page. 

There you will find my early antepost wagers, which are:- 

1:20pm METIER - £5 ew & 5 win @ 6/1 (total stake £15.00 - 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4)

2:30pm MILAN NATIVE - £5 ew & £5 win @ 9/1 and 

               PYM - £4 ew & £4 win @ 16/1 (total stake = £27.00 - 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)

3:05pm HONEYSUCKLE - £20 win @ 5/2 (total stake = £20.00)

3:40pm DAME DE COMPAGNIE - £10 ew and £5 win @ 14/1 (total stake = £25.00 - 5th odds a place 1,2,3)

4:50pm NEXT DESTINATION - £7.50 ew @ 8/1 (total stake = £15.00 - 5th odds a place 1,2,3)

Also: 4 x £3 win trebles and a £3 win accumulator (£15 staked) on

Concertista @ 6/4; Monkfish @ 5/6; Chancun Pour Soi @ 5/6 and Easysland @ 2/1 

After the Final race of the day = £12.50 Loss 

1:20 Supreme Novices Hurdle (2-miles & 87 yards)
Stick with LTO winners: 16 of the last 19 winners won LTO; and don't stray too far from the market leaders. 

The average period since a last run is 42-days, and some good winners (Altior, Douvan, Summerville Boy) have won from breaks of over 60 days.  

Last years winner Shishkin was the first not to have run at least 4x over hurdles since Captain Cee Bee in 2008.

The last 7yo to winner was Captain Cee Bee in 2008. 

You do not get surprises in this race, and with only 8 runners the winner is likely to come from the 1st-3 in the betting. My view is the fav Appreciate It is a resolute galloper, but he may lack gears for this race, and he's no value at the odds - so I've taken a chance with METIER who is unbeaten and is Harry Fry's only runner at the Festival.  We took the 6/1 ew antepost, but for new readers today, the 4/1 odds are fair. 

1:55 Arkle (novice chase) over 2-miles
This was looking like being one of the classic races of the entire Festival: but Energumene went lame last week. SHISHKIN looks a chaser of the highest level, and while Allmankind isn't far behind in ability, it's difficult to see him winning. 

One like Captain Guiness may be able to nick 2nd placed and he's possibly worth a wager in the "withou the fav" betting market for which he's 5/2. 

Allmankind will be leading early-on, with Shishkin sitting just behind; when they head down the hill towards the 3rd-last fence we should know which will be the likely winner of the race.

2:30 Ultima Handicap Chase over 3-miles & 1 furlong

I reviewed this race in-depth on Sunday,  The field is not as strong as usual, but it is competitive.

Avoid horses that were unplaced or did not complete LTO.

Pay attention to horses wearing head-gear, especially for the 1st-time.

Only 3 horses aged 10yo or older have been placed in the 1st-4 in the past 10 years.

Those carrying 11st or more have filled 15 of the 20 1st-4 places in the past 5 years.

The 2 that I've chosen to carry my money are: MILAN NATIVE who won the 3m2f Kim Muir handicap chase, and PYM who has always looked a top-class chaser in the making, but had had some issues - however, he always runs best when fresh so I've no worries about him coming here off a long break.

If you are not already on, I would not put you off having a wager on this pair, eachway obviously.

3:05 The Champion Hurdle over 2-miles & 87 yards

This race looks a cracker of a Grade 1 race.

The winner is usually (but not always) one that ran well at the previous Festival, preferably winning.

We have last years winner Epatante, as well as last year's Mares Hurdle winner Honeysuckle, and what could have been last years Triumph Hurdle winner but for falling at the final flight when well clear, Goshen.

And you cannot ignore Silver Streak, who will be thereabouts if all goes well. 

Outside of these, there are some others (Sharjah and Abacadaras) with possible chances on paper, but with Goshen likely to set a searching pace, I expect only Honeysuckle to be able to go with him. With the benefit of the mares' 7lb allowance, Honeysuckle should be able to stay-on up the hill and win - but there may not be much in it! 

I'm already on HONEYSUCKLE (antepost) at 5/2 and she's also in a number of doubles and trebles.

3:40 the Mares' Hurdle over 2-mile 4-furlongs
With the mares Honeysuckle and Epatante contesting the Champion Hurdle, the race should be taken by CONCERTISTA who is much better than anything else in the race. If Honeysuckle does take part then I think she will start odds-on and be unbeatable.  I was hoping to suggest a wager in the "without-the-fav" market, but there isn't much value there either.  A few weeks ago, I took longer odds (antepost) about Dame De Compagnie, but to be fair, that was more hope that Concertista would run in the Champion Hurdle; the mare has the ability to be in the 1st-3 but does she had the aptitude?

4:15 Juvenile handicap hurdle over 2-miles & 87 yards
The novices handicap chase over 2m4f has been lost to the Festival, and transferred to Sandown, which I think was the wrong decision. To replace it on the card, the Juvenile handicap hurdle has been moved from Day-2. This is a very tricky race to fathom, and 6 of the last 10 winners had SP's of 25/1 or more - be warned! One advantage is that if you fancy one at extremely long odds, it's worth a punt. 

If you ignore 2016 winner Diego du Charmil, all the other winners in the past 10 years ran within the past 38-days, and in the 16 year history of this race, 10 have won off a break of under 26-days!

8 of the 16 winners were LTO winners; and 5 were unplaced LTO

One that looks interesting is BALKO SAINT who won LTO only 13-days ago and he's 25/1 with some bookies.

4:50 National Hunt Chase over 3-mile 6-furlongs
One of my favourite races of the Festival, but this year there will be no amateur riders. 
This race invariably goes to the highest-rated horse in the race, it is as simple as that, so proven chase form is essential. Remember, this race is for novice chasers, and 5 of the last 11 winners (including Ravenhill last year) were in their 2nd season as a novice - again, experience counts.

This time last week my intuition told me the race would cut-up and I took 8/1 about NEXT DESTINATION, and he's the highest-rated chaser in the race at OR153 and comes here fresh off a 59-day break; he's now the fav.  If you want to play the race, and want something at more tasty odds, an eachway wager on the mare Snow Leopardess should pay-off .