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Friday 19 March 2021

Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Day 4 & the Gold Cup

Well then - that was more like it!

We went into the 3rd day losing £45.50 and finally banked a winning selection in MRS MILNER at 12/1 in the 2nd race.  I'd actually written the blog the night before and taken 14's, but only 12's was available when the blog went online. Profit on the £5 ew wager was £72.00 which completely obliterated the loss over the initial 2-days of the Festival.
The Ryanair Chase was a fantastic race to watch, and Allaho was spectacular, but a disaster for my selection MELON who eventually pulled-up due to the incredible pace set by the winner. That was a £20.00 loss on advised stakes.
However, there was more good news when FLOORING PORTER made-all (as expected) on ground he loved to take the Stayers' Hurdle, and we were on him at 14/1 for £7.50 ew and £5 win. The profit on those wagers was £196.00
We dropped £10.00 on the disappointing Gauloise in the Mares' Hurdle, but bounced back with a placed-run from STORM CONTROL @ 16/1 in the last race (the Kim Muir Chase) which provided a profit of £11.00 on the £5 eachway wager.  It was a pity that I didn't combine Mrs Milner, Flooring Porter and Storm Control in 3x EW doubles and an EW treble - lesson learned!
So we ended the day £203.50 in profit, on total stakes of (Day-1 = £117; Day-2 = £30; Day-3 = £70) 
£217.00 

I have no more antepost wagers placed for the remaining day.   It looks a tough card to me.
I'm not interested in the Triumph Hurdle, it will almost certainly go to one of the Irish-trained 4yo's as they look miles ahead of our novice hurdlers. If I had to plump for one it would be QUILIXIOUS, as he looks the best of them to me.
The County Hurdle has not ever been a favourite race of mine, so I'm passing it over.
The "Albert Bartlett" Novice hurdle over 3-miles is an interesting race as these horses tend not to show much speed, it's all about stamina. Novices can progress quickly and one that I have kept an eye on since he won his hurdle debut is THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE.  What I like about him is he's bred to stay 3-mile but was quick enough to beat the speedy and promising Valleres at Ludlow in November. He also stepped-up to win his first attempt at 3-mile on 10th March, just 8-days ago, so we know he's very much race-fit and that run will have him cherry-ripe for this.
Is he worth a wager?
Given there are so few strong formlines in this race (it looks like we are going to have 3x 5/1 co-fav's), and his stablemate Barbados Bucks is in the race at 7/1, probably not: but you really never know with a race like this, especially as the ground is riding really quick and favouring those front-runners. 
Certainly, odds of 11/1 look interesting.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup at 3:05pm is the pinnacle of the Festival, and this year we have Al Boum Photo attempting to emulate Arkle and Best Mate and complete a hat-trick of victories. Can he do it?  It's possible, as he's still only a 9yo, and in Willie Mullins he has a trainer who is 2nd-to-none. My worry is that this race is possibly the most competitive of the last 3 years and also the most complex to assess. The Henderson challenge is spear-headed by Champ and there are a couple of issues I have with him: a) he's a 9yo and that's old for a chaser to win his 1st Gold Cup, and b) he's not enough top-class chase form in his career. For example, when Native River won in 2018 as an 8yo he already had five 160+ performances recorded (my ratings) at graded level; Champ hasn't done that once! There's no doubt he will be well prepared, but I just don't think he's good enough, and we'll likely see that when the chips are down. His stablemate Santini is just slow. Sure, he stays forever and will be going best over the final half-mile, but he could be starting from 20+ lengths behind the leaders. Frodon is an enigma: he just keeps on surprising us and seems to have been around forever, but he's still only a 9yo. By comparison with Champ, since 1st Jan 2018 Frodon has recorded 7 performances of 160+ but only one of those (his recent King George win on Boxing Day) was at 3-miles or more. I don't think he will be allowed to dictate this race, and when he can't dictate he does tend to throw in the towel.  I'm sure he will have his supporters, but there are many "King George" winners that haven't followed-up in the Gold Cup: Clan Des Obeaux, Might Bite, Thistlecrack, Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti, and even Long Run didn't follow-up his 2nd win. 
Native River is a much better horse when the going is soft or worse, and while he was able to cope with good ground when he was younger (when he was 3rd in the GC to Sizing John in 2017 when he was a 7yo) he could not cope with it when he ran 4th in 2019.  That said, he's in good form and I can see him running very well, possibly better than Champ and Frodon. 
Minella Indo just hasn't shown he's good enough for a race at this level; his 3 chase wins have been against inferior opposition and all were at long odds-on. He's a 25/1 chance in my book.  Others without a chance on form are Black Op, Aso, and Lostintranslation who possibly needs a change in stable. The form of Royale Pagaille has taken  few knocks, and while he's a talented 7yo - possibly more talented than Champ at the same age - the ground is certainly against him based on what we've seen.  However, we've never seen him run on anything better than soft-ground, so he could be anything.  
We are left with 3 horses to consider: Al Boum Photo; A Plus Tard, and Kemboy.
I'm growing to like Kemboy: between 28Dec18 - 01May19 he won all 3 completed G1 chases over 3-mile (he unseated at the 1st fence in the Gold Cup won by Al Boum Photo). Then he lost his way for 12 months, and was down the field in last years Gold Cup, but I wasn't happy about him being ridden by an amateur jockey before that race, and he can do better than that.  He pulled his act together when caught close home, having looked the winner on the run-in, by A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown on 28Dec.  After that, he was ridden much more positively in the Irish Gold Cup on 07Feb and won well.  He can make mistakes, but the 2 worst mistakes he's made in 17 chase races has been at the 1st fence, so if he gets over that we can breathe easier.  I think he's overlooked in the betting market and should be a lot shorter than 20/1.  
That run on 28Dec was the last time we saw A Plus Tard, and that was the 1st (and only) time he's run over 3-mile as a chaser since being beaten by Delta Work as a novice chaser in Apr19. He's a top-class horse, that is without doubt, but is he top-top-class enough to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup?  He might be, but odds of 3/1 are far too short for the amount of doubt, and he should be more like 7/1 or more.   
Al Boum Photo has been there and has the T-shirt, is he still good enough? Possibly, and showed versatility last season to win what was essentially a six-furlong sprint from the 3rd-last fence.  The year before was a stiff stamina test (thanks to Native River setting a good pace) and so we know there are no holes in his resume.  He was 3/1 last year and, before that race, I thought it was tougher than in 2019.  I think he should be the clear fav in this race, and anything longer than 9/4 is value in my opinion.  I think he would be the 2/1 fav if the betting market had not gone into a frenzy over Rachael Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead.  He's my idea of the winner, but the horse I think may give him most to do - and could well nick the race - is Kemboy.  
My idea of the 1st-4 is
1st Al Boum Photo; 2nd Kemboy; 3rd A Plus Tard; 4th Native River 
Suggested Wager:
AL BOUM PHOTO - £10 win @ 3/1 (available generally)
KEMBOY - £5 eachway @ 20/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower, Betfair quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
 
The renamed Hunter Chase at 3:40pm gives the jockeys a chance to celebrate after the Gold Cup, or it did when it was for amateur riders. No amateurs this year, so if there's a decent professional riding, take note. The Willie Mullins trained Billaway was expected to win this last year, but was beaten by the well-prepared It Came To Pass.  They both run again, but this time Billaway should be in the 1st-2 again, but will he be 1st or 2nd?  The horse that has caught my eye is CHAMERON, an 8yo trained by the Loxton's in Somerset, who were sent the horse by the owner Paul Nicholls (there's a name). Nicholls bought the horse after seeing it beat Lord Du Mesnil in France in Oct2016, but he couldn't get the horse to settle, so sent it to the Loxton's. After a long break, Chameron went pointing, and won both P2P's last Spring.  Another year off, and he ran at Leicester on 18Feb on a hunter-chase and hacked-up.  There may be a problem with the ground in this race, but the quick ground will affect a lot of these horses, and (as usual) it will pay to race prominently and not get left with too much to do.
I expect Billaway to win, but at 3/1 there's not much wiggle-room in the odds considering he was beaten as the 11/4 fav last year, so no recommended wager for me.

The Mares' Chase at 4:15pm is the first running of this new race. There's only two mares capable of winning based on the form, both are trained by Willie Mullins, and they are ELIMAY @ 4/5 (odds-on) and Colreevy @ 7/2. Personally, I don't think there's much in it, but Elimay is the better mare but only by a couple of pounds, but they are both a lot better than the others in this race.

I'm not bothering with the last race on the card, and by then the crowds (!?!) will have gone home.
It's been a great week, please look out for my review of the Festival results with pointers for antepost wagers over the next few weeks.
 

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