Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Day 3

This Cheltenham Festival isn't going well for me!

We went into Day-2 having lost £12.50 on Day-1, and then none of my recommended wagers was successful, so another £33.00 lost, making the loss for the week so far £45.50.

What is worse is after spotting what looked a "plot" horse in the Coral Cup handicap hurdle in Heaven Help Us (the only runner for trainer Paul Hennessy this week, and the horse ran 7th in last years "Supreme" Hurdle) I didn't recommend a wager and the horse duly won with an SP of 33/1 (having been 40/1 when I posted the blog).

Thursday: and the 3rd day of the Cheltenham Festival is my favourite day.

I have already posted a number of antepost wagers, and the hope is that they will be successful..

My antepost wagers are:

2:30pm MELON - £5 ew & £5 win = £15 staked @ 9/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3)

3:05pm FLOORING PORTER - £7.50 ew & £5 win = £20 staked @ 14/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3)

plus:

MELON and FLOORING PORTER in £2.50 ew double (£5 staked)

1:20 Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) over 2-mile & 4-furlongs
This is a race in which Graded race-winning form is important. 

ENVOI ALLEN is the odds-on fav, and there looks to be nothing in the race capable of beating him.  We've seen a few hot-fav's beaten this week, but trainer De Bromhead has struck with all his top horses, and I'm not expecting a surprise result in this race. The horse that may follow him home in 2nd is SHAN BLUE who has been progressive and consistent all season. 

1:55 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle over 3-mile   
A front-runner that stays, that's the ideal horse for this race, and I can't see one that fits the bill. 

I'm not going to do what I did yesterday in spotting a "plot" horse and then not tipping it, but one that seems to fit the bill is the lightly raced MRS MILNER, who was just beaten a neck here at Cheltenham by consistent 3-mile hurdler On The Blind Side last November.  After qualifying in December (race 4th of 20), she fell in the race won by Heaven Help Us (yesterdays winner of the Coral Cup) in February. She looks unexposed at 3-mile and will be trainer Paul Nolan's only runner here this week.   Odds of 12/1 (5th odds 7-places with Skybet) look fair to me.

Suggested Wager:

MRS MILNER - £5 ew = £10 staked @ 12/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5,6, 7 with Skybet)

2:30 Ryanair Chase over 2-mile 4-furlongs & 127 yards
One of my favourite races.
This year looks a super-competitive race, and the one I'm on antepost is MELON.

I think he is the class horse in the race, and he will likely try and make-all as he's a bold front-runner.  There was a chance that he may have gone for the Gold Cup, but he's not the stamina for 3-miles so would not have much chance in the Gold Cup, and this trip should be perfect for him. I'm on at 9/1 antepost, but there's plenty of 15/2 about and that looks value to me.

3:05 The Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) over 3-mile
Last year's race was a poor renewal as none of the main challengers were on form on the day.  Paisley Park, who won this in 2019, has been running well but at 9yo looks vulnerable. As does Sire Du Berlais, and there's no value in either of those. My antepost wager is on FLOORING PORTER @ 14/1 and he has improved considerably this season, and is only a 6yo.  Although he's run his last couple of races on soft ground, he's won on good ground before at Galway in July, so he should have no ground issues. There is some 11/1 available, but most bookies are offering just 9/1 and I can't see him finishing outside the 1st-4 and I think he has a hell of a chance.

3:40 The Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase over 2-mile & 4-furlongs & 127 yards
As always, a tough handicap to fathom, and 23 runners go to post.

One of my antepost wagers for the Ultima Handicap was FARCLAS, and he's running in this instead. 

Course form is very important for this race, and Farclas has it having won the Triumph Hurdle here in 2018. However, this race is competitive and there are a number that have been aimed at this race; notably Mister Whitaker, who was 3rd in this race last year and has run just twice since. Another is The Shunter, who comes here in top form, as does A Wave Of The Sea.  It's not unusual for the winner to come into this race off a long break, and Sully D'Oc AA comes into this category, he looks a better chaser than his OR137 rating.

I'm going to give this race a miss, not because I don't think FARCLAS holds a winning chance, but the odds of 6/1 do not represent value in a race like this - as we saw in the Grand Annual Chase yesterday, there could be 6 of 7 in with a chance at the final fence. 

4:15 Mares' Novice Hurdle over 2-mile 1-furlong
Not a race I usually look at, but just following the Willie Mullins 1st-choice pointed me to Concertista last year. 

Mullins dominates these Mares' hurdles and if he thought GAULIOISE stood no chance of reversing the form of 3rd behind both Roseys Hollow and Royal Kahala LTO then I'm sure he'd aim the mare elsewhere. Odds of 7/1 and 4-places eachway look fair, and she's worth an eachway wager.  . 

Suggested Wager:
GAULIOUSE: £5 eachway = £10 staked @ 7/1 (PaddyPower, William Hill, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4)

4:50 The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir h'cap Chase over 3-mile 2-furlongs
One of my favourite races but no amateur riders this year, which makes selection trickier.

William Greatrex won this with Missed Approach in 2018, and Bob Mahler went close last year, coming in 3rd. 

However, there is a C&D winner in the race who looks well handicapped and sure to make a bold attempt: STORM CONTROL.  His run LTO exposed his stamina on soft ground at Warwick, but this reduced trip and better ground will be in his favour.  Odds of 16/1 with 5-places available look value. 
Suggested Wager:
STORM CONTROL: £5 eachway = £10 staked @ 16/1 (5th odds a place 1st-5 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred)