The 2021 Cheltenham Festival - a lookback

What a Festival of horseracing!

Yes, it was dominated by the Irish-based trainers, but it's the horses that race, and it's the horses that win - it is all about the horses!

There were some phenomenal performances from horse, rider and trainer, and I will touch on some of them here - as well as my own performance as a punter and tipster.

For me, the best performance of the entire Festival came in the premier race - the Gold Cup from MINELLA INDO.  Before the race, I was disparaging about the horse, considering him not to have developed from his novice chase season. But before I go into that, I have to say it's hard to believe that he made his racing debut as a 5yo in a maiden hurdle at Limerick on 29Dec2018, not much more than 2 years ago - and despite starting the 5/4 fav he could only run 3rd to the lowly Small Farm who is now with Charlie Mann and rated just OR122. Humble beginnings, but then Minella Indo was the 10th foal of his dam who, to be honest, had only produced one horse of note in Benatar (a 9yo with Gary Moore rated OR135). "Indo" was bred by the Rathkenty Stud in Ireland, and they sell their mares' produce as foals at the sales, so anyone with foresight could have bought this future Gold Cup winner when he went to the Tattersalls Ireland November NH Sale on 16th November 2013 as Lot 309 out of 1464 horses being offered for sale. The high-class hurdler Thomas Darby was Lot 307, and top handicap chaser Pym was Lot 349.  There's been a lot of talk about British trainers lacking the horses to compete, but they are all there for sale if you look for them: unfortunately, my view is that UK trainers are trying to buy the finished product for prices north of £300,000 when they should be buying these "stores" and investing in the future. 

Back to Minella Indo, and after his racing debut he progressed extremely quickly into a top-class horse winning the "Albert Bartlett" G1 novice hurdle on only his 3rd start a the 2019 Cheltenham Festival.  His trainer Henry De Bromhead tried to maintain the same electrifying progress in his novice chasing season, and almost succeeded in winning the G1 RSA (now Brown Advisory) Chase at the 2020 Festival, but "Indo" just failed after using all his strength in a head-to-head duel with Allaho (who won the Ryanair Chase this week with an immense display of speed and jumping).

De Bromhead wisely gave "Indo" a long break after that run, and I expect he will do the same again after this weeks Gold Cup win. We next saw Minella Indo winning a couple of minor graded races comfortably, but he beat in the process a couple of Cheltenham winners in Milan Native and Ravenhill, so the form - if not sparkling - was solid. 

We have to wonder now, just what would have happened in the G1 Savills Chase on 28Dec20 had Minella Indo not fallen at the 8th fence - would he have won? Almost certainly, and had he won that race he may not have run in the Irish Gold Cup on 07Feb over the same C&D. With the benefit of hindsight, it would seem that the latter race was used as a confidence builder.  Personally, I read too much into the form of that race, and what I should have done was focused on his previous Cheltenham Festival performances and the way he had been campaigned in his 2nd season as a chaser, and not the results achieved.  However, jockey Rachael Blackmore must have also read too much into that race, as she rode "Indo" when he fell in the Savills Chase (won by A Plus Tard), and then swapped to A Plus Tard for the Gold Cup. 

Last week, Minella Indo didn't just win the Gold Cup, he set the bar very high putting over 5-lengths between himself and 2x Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo in 3rd and another Gold Cup winner in Native River in 4th. My assessment of the performance is 170 (RPR179) which is the best since Coneygree, who I assessed at 172 (RPR178).

The Festival riding performance was from Rachael Blackmore, as she was rightly propelled to the top of the tree of NH jockeys winning 6 races from her 20 rides. She certainly pushes her horses fully to get the best from them, and that does seem to result in mistakes when they are taken out of their comfort zone, with 4 of those rides resulting in a fall or her being unseated following an error. I will be interested in those 4: Plan Of Attack, Embittered, Balko Des Flo, and Eklat De Rire when they run next time. It was a superb week for Blackmore, just the good news story that horseracing needed.

Trainer Henry De Bromhead sent 23 horses to race at the Festival, resulting in 6 winners, and 1st & 2nd in 2 races.  Of those that completed their race, only one (Champagne Gold) had an SP of under 10/1 and didn't run well: overall, it was a remarkably consistent performance.

What about my performance as a tipster?  Well, for the 3rd year in a row, I posted a profit on the week, and this year it was £183.50 profit on total stakes of £237.00; that's 77.47% Return on Investment.

Obviously, the highlight of my betting week was FLOORING PORTER advised at 14/1 winning the Stayers Hurdle just as I expected him to: making-all.

There were a few downsides, and also some lessons learned - you are never too old to learn!

The downsides were staking too much on a couple of tenuous wagers, for instance Metier on the Supreme Novices Hurdle: it quickly became obvious that the UK-trained novice hurdlers were no match for the Irish-trained novices, and were about 7-10lb behind despite having comparable Official Ratings. Our handicapper needs to start awarding ratings that are more realistic to the novice hurdlers, and Metier is a prime example. Prior to the "Supreme" he was rated OR148, while I rated his best performance to-date at 139. Being essentially "flat-bred", I expected him to improve on his 139 rating on the better ground at Cheltenham (his LTO win was on heavy ground) but no, he was even more exposed. 

Another lesson was in the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day.  My selection process is based on trends to create a shortlist, and then on form to hone a selection.  However, this years Ultima had a number of runners that were unlikely to stay the 3m1f or were proven vulnerable at the trip (ie Alnadam, Nietzche, Cepage, and Delire D'Estruval) or were out of form; and that should have alerted me to a proven stayer like Vintage Clouds who had run 2nd & 3rd in this race previously and therefore had scope to be placed (at least) in the 1st-5 at long odds. Trends are not the be-all & end-all, they are a tool - don't forget that.

My final lesson was being a bit braver; and I did learn this during the Festival after I spotted - and then ignored - Heaven Help Us in the Coral Cup handicap hurdle and then watched him win at 33/1.  I did follow my instinct on Day-3 by posting a selection advice on Mrs Milner who won at 12/1.

Overall, a great Festival for readers of the blog, and for all horseracing fans, and I really hoped that you enjoyed my writing and benefitted from my advice.

Roll on Aintree!