We suffered another taste of disappointment when one of my earliest antepost selections, DREAL DEAL, was declared to be a likely non-runner. Thankfully, my wager on him was NRNB (non-runner, no-bet), so come next Tuesday the stake money will be refunded.
However, I am now without a wager in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the opening race of the Festival. There is no way I can side with the 7yo Appreciate It, not at 13/8 (Betfred). Recent Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory is improving, but I very much doubt he will improve enough to win this race, as that win was in his 5th race this season, and he's going to have to find possibly another 10lb to win this race. Although beaten just over 3-lengths when they met on 07Feb, Ballyadam is improving and it would not surprise me to see him reverse the places with the fav in this race. However, that 16 of the previous 19 winners of this race won LTO, and Ballyadam was 2nd strikes a blow. As such, I'm focusing on METIER. The form of his Tolworth Hurdle win LTO has worked out fairly well, and this unbeaten novice hurdler has yet to be asked a question. He looks capable of running well in this race, which may well see a smaller field going to post than usual.
Blue Lord will likely go for the County Handicap Hurdle, and Bob Olinger (new stablemate of Ballyadam) will go for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle on Day-2 for which he's the current fav. As such, this may be a race lacking in a bit of depth on the day, and odds of 6/1 NRNB (5th odds, 4-places eachway) offered by PaddyPower and Betfair are too good to overlook.
Day-1: Supreme Novices Hurdle:
Selection: METIER - £5 ew AND £5 win = £15 staked @ 6/1 (NRNB with PaddyPower & Betfair, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4)
The time for antepost wagers has probably passed-by now, and focus should be on form-study and identification of the likely runners on the day. I'm expecting a fair bit of movement in the odds on the days of the Festival, and there's no point in taking 3/1 about a runner today, when 11/2 will likely be available on the day of the race.
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