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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday, 2 March 2021

Countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - Tuesday 2nd March (13 days to go)

When we awake in 2-weeks today, it will be the 1st day of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.  
It cannot come quick enough for me after the past couple of days.
There's been enough said already about Gordon Elliott, so I will not add to the flames, just that I'm very disappointed and angry that the sport I love and hold dear to my heart has - again - been put in jeopardy by an act of utmost stupidity.

Today is the day that the handicap weights are published, and on the opening day of the Festival we have the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f, possibly the most competitive handicap chase of the entire season at the trip.  I have looked at past results and drawn this table.

It's easy to read.

From the left, in 2020 there were 23 runners, 8 carried 11st or more the other 15 under 11st.

The winner was an 8yo with 10st 6lb running off OR139, then the 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

Of the 23 runners, 9 were 9yo's or older, the remaining 14 were 8yo's or younger.

In the past 10 years:-

- only 3 horses aged 10yo or older have been placed;

- those with 11st or more (114 runners in 10 years) have filled 24 of the 40 places!!!

- those with under 11st (106 runners in 10 years) have filled the other 16 places.

In the past 5 years:-

- only 1 horse aged 10yo of more has been placed (4th in 2017);

- those with 11st or more (66 runners in 5 years) have filled 15 of the 20 places!!!!!!!

- those with under 11st (45 runners in 5 years) have filled the other 5 places.

From the above, my interpretation is that OR144 or more is the ratings cut-off.

Wager on nothing older than 9yo.

Preferably stick to the 8yo's and under, as they've filled 13 of the 20 places available (1st-4) in the past 5 years from 64 of the total of 111 runners. 

The 9yo's have filled 6 of the 20 places, so a good 9yo should not be ignored, but they tend to be placed rather than win.

I've had an eachway wager at 25/1 NRNB on PAINT THE DREAM, a 7yo trained by Fergal O'Brien.  There's no guarantee that he will take part, but I believe he's a lot better than OR147.

Advised wager: Ultima Handicap Chase

PAINT THE DREAM - £5 eachway = £10 staked @ 25/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5 with Betfred)

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