The Festival is almost within reach.
Some final plans are emerging, and one that took me by surprise was Fergal O'Brien announcing on twitter that PAINT THE DREAM will bypass the Ultima Handicap Chase on Day-1 and go for the Marsh Novices Chase on Day-3 for which he's currently 50/1. I'm hoping that was a "tongue-in-cheek" remark, as I think his current rating of OR147 is very lenient, that's why I've taken the odds of 25/1 (NRNB). If the horse was mine I'd rather miss the Festival altogether and go to Aintree rather than try for the March Chase where he's likely to be met (and beaten) by Envoi Allen, Shan Blue and Sporting John. But hey! I'm not the owner or the trainer.
It's almost certain to be raining in Cheltenham today, but from tomorrow (Thursday) and for the next 6-days including Day-1 (Tuesday 16th March) the weather is forecast to be fine and dry, so we should be looking at Good-to-Soft ground on the opening day.
I've been watching as many of the video podcasts reviewing the Festival as possible, but I've yet to come across one that's more informative than the Lydia Hislop / Ruby Walsh series of discussions. The observations of jockeyship from Ruby Walsh gives an new insight to this old dog, and it's giving my form appraisals a bit of a challenge.
I was asked yesterday about my Gold Cup selection, and as yet I've not made one. Prior to Champ running at Newbury, I was fairly sure to be supporting Al Boum Photo, but now I'm not so sure. It was great to see Native River run so well at Sandown on 07Feb to win the rescheduled Cotswold Chase, but the old campaigner was allowed to get into a good rhythm and he just loves it when the mud is flying! After listening to Ruby Walsh in his Gold Cup assessment, and re-watching the last couple of Gold Cups, I think that there's a possibility of a stronger run Gold Cup this year (due to Native River and Frodon taking part) and we could end up with a race that collapses in the final half-mile much like the race did in 2014, when Lord Windermere came from last-to-first from 4-out to get his head in front on the line. The horse that may be the one that does this is Santini, and if he's towards the rear and biding his time as the field passes the stands to head out on the 2nd circuit, I will be placing an in-running wager on him at the best odds I can obtain - hopefully over 40/1. As for Frodon, I love the horse to bits, he's a great bonus for horseracing, but he "stole" the King George from the front, and he won't be allowed to do that in the Gold Cup, and I expect he will be found out over the trip as he has been in every strong-run 3-mile chase that he's contested.
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