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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 17 March 2021

Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Day 2

Onto Wednesday, and another quality racecard.
Before that, a look at yesterday's results and performance.
We had a bad start to the day when METIER just didn't perform. 
We didn't have a wager on SHISHKIN but what an exciting horse he is.
Going into the Ultima Handicap Chase I really felt confident, but MILAN NATIVE ran no sort of race; he jumped well but showed no zip and the "wind" operation hasn't worked. My other selection PYM did everything right, but ran out of juice about half-a-mile out and probably was in need of a race.
Thankfully, we were on HONEYSUCKLE and saw the performance of the day.
CONCERTISTA being caught on the line was bad enough, but DAME DE COMPAGNIE ran no sort of race; Henderson's horses are in & out. 
We nearly had the day rescued by NEXT DESTINATION but he was flat-footed at an important moment on the run-up to the final fence. 
The blog selections start the day at £12.50 down to recommended stakes.
Today (unfortunately), most of the races are dominated by an odds-on fav so the "without the fav" markets may be the best place to wager. However, I'm not tempted to chase my losses, and we've Thursday and Friday ahead of us.
My antepost wagers going into today are:-
4:15pm ASHUTOR - £5 eachway = £10 staked @ 25/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
Also: £3 win treble on
Monkfish @ 5/6; Chancun Pour Soi @ 5/6 and Easysland @ 2/1 

1:20 Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 2-mile & 5 furlongs
Possibly the best novice hurdle race of the Festival, and winners are always top-drawer.
The betting is a very good indication, and in the past 13 years there's only been one winner at odds longer than 10/1 (2017 Willoughby Court @ 14/1). The winner will almost certainly have been running at graded level. My preference is for graded winners over 2-mile rather than 2m4f+ as this course is quite tight and does not put some much emphasis on stamina. You have to go back to 1998 (French Holly) for a 7yo winner, and the last 7 winners (and 9 of the last 10) were all 6yo's.
No antepost selection for me in this race.  Given the way Appreciate It won the "Supreme" you must think that Mullins has a good idea how good his GAILLARD DU MESNIL is and his form looks very strong. However, there are a lot of good rumours about KESKONRISK: this is a no bet race for me.

1:55 Brown Advisory Novices Chase over 3-mile
The winner of this race is usually a proper staying chaser, bred to do the job. 
Again, LTO winners to the fore with 10 of the previous 19 winners having won LTO.
7 of the last 10 winners ran within the past 40-days.
Since Willie Mullins won this in 2004 with Rule Supreme at 25/1, only 4 subsequent winners have started at 10/1 or longer.
If anything beats MONKFISH then I will be very surprised, and I'm not even going to oppose him. I've included Monkfish in my antepost doubles and trebles, but there is no value in the odds now.  The horse I expect to follow Monkfish home and give him most to do is Sporting John, his win LTO at Sandown was very impressive, and odds of 11/4 w/o Monkfish looks good to me. 
Suggested wager:
SPORTING JOHN - £10 win @ 11/4 in the w/o Monkfish betting

2:30 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f
This is a race that I've avoided in the past, and with 26 runners it looks as difficult as it always is. 
What's interesting is that 7 of the last 11 winners have carried 11st or more. Only 3 of the last 10 winners won their previous race, and only 1 of the previous 10 winners ran off a break of under 39 days - the "mean" being 57-days which is only shorter than the County Hurdle (66-days).  Winners of this race come here fresh. With none of the last 12 winners having raced more than 4x since 1st May, and you should be able to have a narrow short-list.  I'm not selection one in this race, but I will be watching Heaven Help Us who is the only runner for trainer Paul Hennessy this week, and the horse ran 7th in last years "Supreme" Hurdle.

3:05 Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles
With last years race being a complete non-event, what with non-runners (Altior and Chancun Pour Soi) and the red-hot fav Defi Du Seuil just not performing on the day, and he hasn't done so since. This year, the form again points to CHANCUN POUR SOI to be the champion, but he's not raced at Cheltenham before, and I'm sure some of the old hands wont give him a fee ride.  I've included Chancun Pour Soi in my antepost doubles and trebles, but the only value in the odds now looks to be in the "w/o the fav" betting.  The pair that look interesting are Nube Negra @ 5/1 (Bet Victor) and Cilaos Emery at 15/2 (Paddy Power).  That CILAOS EMERY had a run 17-days ago suggests he'll be ripe for this and he's a top-class chaser in his own right
Suggested wager:
CILAOS EMERY - £10 win @ 15/2 in the w/o Chancun Pour Soi betting

3:40 Cross Country Chase over 3-mile and 6-furlongs
Not a race that I think should be run at the Festival, and this year is no different. 
Last year, the race was torn apart by EASYSLAND and I rely cannot see anything getting anywhere near him if he's with 10lb of the same level of form.  I've included Easysland in my antepost doubles and trebles, but there is no value in the odds now. 

4:15 Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase over 2-miles 
The race has been transferred from Friday to take over the slot vacated by the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (now on Day-1).  This isn't a race that I have reviewed in previous years, so a new one for me. It's on the Old Course so that will likely be an advantage to the prominent runners in the race.  On interesting stat I've found is that 20 of the last 22 winners ran in no more than 12 chase races. I've have an antepost wager on Ashutor who I feel has been laid-out for this race; he's a prominent runners, and holds a good profile for the race.  ASHUTOR is available at 28/1 (5th odds placed 1,2,3,4,5,6) and I think he's well-worth an eachway wager.

4:50 Champion Bumper over 2-miles and 87 yards
This is a race for those "in-the-know". Not much form to go on, and what there is, is tricky to interpret.  It's not unusual for a horse to win this race off a very long break, but recent winners have usually run within the previous 42-days. The last horse to win this that wasn't a LTO winner, was Liberman in 2003.

1 comment:

  1. Hopefully you were on heaven help us Ian, good luck for the rest of the festival