A big day yesterday, with the 6-day confirmations for the opening day of the Festival.
By the way, I've opened up comments for people with a Google account, so hopefully that will keep out the spammers, but allow readers to post any comments.
The Supreme Novices Hurdle is down to 18 runners; the "Arkle" has just 12 runners and this could well be down to 7 or 8 on Tuesday; and my favourite race of the day, the Ultima Handicap Chase has 31 confirmed runners. For the "Supreme" I'm happy to say that my latest antepost wager METIER is still in the race, and I'm feeling fairly confident about his chances. Only 8 of the 18 confirmed are LTO winners, and Metier is one of them. This could be a race to look for some "double-figure" value if the bookies go 5 or even 6 places eachway on Tuesday, for instance LTO winner Grumpy Charlie is now rated OR143 after winning at Chepstow recently, yet he's 33/1 and could easily be 4th or 5th in this race. A £5 ew wager (£10 staked) would return £33 if placed, yet £10 win on the fav at 11/8 would return only £23.75 if successful. Remember, while its great to find a winner, hopefully your intention is to make a profit while having a good time!
I can see the Arkle cutting-up a lot before the race goes ahead. Those that I don't expect to line up are: Eldorado Allen, Embittered, Felix Desjy, Numitor, and Sky Pirate - that would leave 7 going to post. It may even be just 6 if Mullins pulls out Blackbow or Franco De Port. As such, if you think you might have an eachway wager on Darver Star or Captain Guiness, get those wagers struck while 3-places are still available eachway. I know SHISHKIN is odds-on, but I have rarely heard Willie Mullins rave about an Arkle runner as much as he has on ENERGUMENE, and it would not surprise me to see them start 5/4 joint-favs.
It is disappointing that both of my antepost wagers in the Ultima Handicap Chase have been pulled-out, and so I'm having to look elsewhere. Thankfully, both wagers were NRNB so no money lost. Last week, I provided a schedule of recent renewals, and highlighted that this is not a race for the older horse, or for those below OR140. A recent run is also a good pointer, and taking these elements into account my shortlist is now: Aye Right; Escaria Ten; Remastered; Farclas; and One For The Team.
The 7yo Happygolucky is not on my list as he's not run since 11th December, and his 3 chase races have been in small fields - he's only finished in-front of 8 other horses!
I like Lieutenant Rocco, but he's only a 6yo and I feel his rating of OR147 is a bit steep. He has immense potential, but there's no wiggle-room in his odds of just 6/1.
We might not see many more withdraw from this race, and with a max field of 24, I would not want to wager on anything set to carry under 10st 3lb.
I realise that Mrs Foster has a large number of entries, and to be honest I think she could win this race with either Escaria Ten or Farclas. Of the pair, I favour FARCLAS as he was once rated OR152 as a hurdler, and his chase rating of OR144 suggests he's well-treated. Also, he's unexposed at 3-mile , and the trip of 2m5 LTO looked a bit too sharp for him.
Mr Dependable Aye Right has had a tremendous season without winning a race, and he reminds my of last years winner The Conditional in that he is almost guaranteed to be in the 1st-4 home, and he may just get his head in front close home. David Pipe-trained Remastered has multiple entries and could go for the NH Chase later on Tuesday; while One For The Team has yet to win a chase race, despite looking above average.I would not put anyone off having a wager on Aye Right, but for me at this moment FARCLAS looks the value in the betting at 14/1.
Suggested Wager:
Ultima Handicap Chase: FARCLAS - £7.50 eachway = £15 staked @ 14/1 (NRNB with Skybet, Betfred; 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
The Champion Hurdle has been debated until the cows come home, and there's no value in the race.
However the Mares' Hurdle has been reduced to just 12 confirmed runners, and happily I'm on 2 of the main contenders: CONCERTISTA in small doubles and treble, and Dame De Compagnie.
The Juvenile Handicap Hurdle looks an absolute nightmare of a race to assess, so I'm not going to give myself the headache.
However, the NH Chase is starting to look very interesting. The confirmed runners are down to just 16, and it's likely that several will take in other races: those being Escaria Ten, Royale Pagaille, and perhaps even Remastered. With Galvin aimed at this race since the Autumn, it would be no surprise to see his old stablemate Coko Beach go for the Ultima Handicap. If these moves happen, NEXT DESTINATION could be a big market mover from 8/1 into maybe 4/1 2nd fav to Galvin, and I think he's a much better horse than that rival.
Suggested Wager:
NH Chase: NEXT DESTINATION - £7.50 eachway = £15 staked @ 8/1 (NRNB with Skybet, Bet365, Betfred and Boyles; 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
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