We are stating to see horses being withdrawn due to set-backs in preparation now, and yesterday we lost Energumene from the Arkle, which was a bit of a blow to my personal doubles and trebles, but as I also had Shishkin in a number of multiples I'm not too bothered overall.
What these withdrawals mean is the Novice Championship races are now headed by very short odds-on chances, and that (in my opinion) is not good for horseracing: we want to see the best compete against the best. It would be terrific if Envoi Allen were in the Arkle instead of heading for the Marsh Novice Chase on Thursday, which he will almost certainly win comfortably.
That's pretty much my final take on the Championship races, they've been done and the real interest at the Festival is in the handicaps. The Ultima Chase on Tuesday has lost Lieutenant Rocco, so now we have a new 4/1 fav in Happygolucky. To be honest, the betting market for this race is serious poor value, we have 6 horses at 10/1 or less, and 2 of those 6 (Remastered and Coko Beach) have multiple race entries, so we won't know what race they run in until the 48hr decs come out, and before I recommend another wager in this race, I will wait till then and keep my fingers crossed that Farclas is declared.
The other handicap on Tuesday is the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over 2-miles and I'm not going near this race - it looks capable of giving me nightmares! So onto Wednesday which has the Coral Cup (handicap) Hurdle over 2m5f and the Grand Annual Handicap Chase over 2-mile. The Coral Cup still has 55 runners in it, so I'll wait for the 48hr decs, but the Grand Annual is looking more interesting. I have already recommended a wager on Mengli Khan, and the more I look at this horse, the more I think this has been his target since the day he was bought at the sales on 15the Sept. Remember, we were in Covid then, and the onerous travel restrictions for horses from Ireland (due to Brexit) had yet to be imposed. But even the best-laid plans can go astray, so for handicaps like this I look at the other ploys the top trainers use: such as "top & tailing" - sacrificing a top-weight to guarantee a "racing-weight" for the proper stable fancy. The old tricks are the best tricks! What is interesting about this race is Paul Nicholls, who has won this race twice in the past 5-years, has Duc Des Genievres at top-weight (11st 12lb) and his other entry ASHUTOR races with 10st 7lb, and I'm not expecting Duc Des Genievres to be withdrawn.
Ashutor ran 4x between July-September last year, then had a long break before reappearing on 28Feb at Fontwell were he ran well, but will obviously improve for the run. He looks a real dark-horse stable gamble as Nicholls has nothing else in the race other than this pair.
Advised wager: Day-2 (Wednesday) Grand Annual Handicap Chase
ASHUTOR - £5 eachway = £10 staked @ 25/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5 with Skybet, PaddyPower, William Hill and Betfred)
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