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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday 16 May 2011
CANFORD CLIFFS on track to be seasons top miler
The Lockinge went – as expected – to CANFORD CLIFFS. However, he didn’t get things all his own way as the Italian challenger WORTHADD ran right up to his best form here. As such, I rated CANFORD CLIFFS performance at 124 which means he should have another 6 or 7lb improvement in him. WORTHADD won the Group 2 Premier Ribot in Italy, beating Sehrezad (gave Worthadd a 1lb) a neck. Just 2 weeks ago, Sehrezad was 3rd in the Gp2 Prix Du Muguet, just a neck behind BYWORD (giving away 3lb) who (if you recall) won the Group 1 Prince OF Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot.
I know it is hindsight, but you really should not underestimate “foreign” challengers on these shores and at 25/1 WORTHADD was grossly under-estimated.
Earlier at Newbury, one that I was looking out for was ADDICTIVE DREAM. Having watched this race several times I feel that the horse could have finished a lot closer (he was 4th beaten nearly 3-lengths) had he been ridden a little more prominently in the early stages rather than being restrained. This is my opinion, not a criticism of the jockey who perhaps thought the horse possessed a little more ability than he showed. He moved smoothly into a challenging position, but had no more left when asked for the final challenge. Some thought he didn’t stay this 6-fulrongs and that he may be better suited to a stiff 5-furlongs, but I think he got this trip just fine. The runner-up MAC’S POWER continues on a upward curve and may contest group races next month. The winner Novellen Lad has improved a lot for his move to trainer Willie Musson, but whether he can hold this form is debatable. As for the 3rd, Secret Witness, he was running off 18lb more than his last winning rating and since that win in May 2010 he’s run 14 times and come 2nd on 7 occasions, and 3rd another 3 times. As such, this race was a decent standard and ADDICTIVE DREAM needed to be in tip-top form to win. He remains on my HTF list.
Before I go on, today’s racing looks fairly ordinary, although there are a couple of interesting races this evening. What I am probably going to do is get this blog written this morning, and then (if there is something worthy of a wager or comment this evening) issue a supplementary blog about 4:30 this afternoon. For instance, jockey Graham Gibbons travel to the evening meeting at Windsor for only one ride in the final race on the card for trainer Ed McMahon – LOOK WHO’S KOOL. When jockeys can only ride at 9 meetings in a week, sacrificing a meeting for just a single ride (Gibbons had a single ride for McMahon on Noble Storm at Ascot on 6th May – 2nd btn a head; and a single ride on Ancient Cross at York on 12th May – won @ 10/1) means you should take notice.
At Doncaster on Saturday, MUSIC FESTIVAL (one that I made a note of when he winning previously) ran a decent race from 2lb out of the handicap. However, this drop in trip to 6-furlongs did not look like it suited him, and a return to 7-furlongs (or even a mile) looks to be what this son of the French Guineas winner - Musical Chimes - needs. The other horse I noted at Doncaster – MAVERIK – ran a cracker and just met one who looks destined to be a lot better than OR78 in The Mellor Fella. As such, MAVERIK stays on my HTF list, especially as his half-bro SOLAR ONE was 2nd in a couple of Group 1’s including the Prix Lupin in 1995 won by Flemensfirth. A step-up to a mile could bring about a lot of improvement.
At Newmarket, the good-to-firm going did for PARLOUR GAMES and a return to “good” (or, preferably, good-to-soft) as this well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks) horse looks the best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. The winner Glencadam Gold benefitted from the step-up to 12-furlongs and he became another winner from the race won by Chain Lightning at Sandown on 24th April. Hawaafez looks one-paced and may need a much longer trip as there is tonnes of stamina in her breeding (dam won over 1m6f).
At Thirsk, FAVOURITE GIRL was handicapped by the rain showers before and during her race. She is best on quick going (3 wins on GF). She was also carried into the centre of the track by the runner-up who was hanging left and, when she couldn’t win, her jockey gave her an easy time of it. As such she’s value for this run.
On Sunday (yesterday) at Ripon, DUBAI DYNAMO ran another good race to be 2nd (btn ½ a length) repeating his performance of last season when he was running off OR95, 12lbs higher than he is now. If he continues to follow the path of last season, he may next run at Chester next week. A look at the formbook tells you that he won at Newmarket on 29th May last year beating top handicapper St Moritz giving that horse a 1lb. This is his time of year!
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen), and will continue to update during today.
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