No blog yesterday (Sunday) and, for me and the blog, Saturday was a bit in-and-out. Overall, I am pleased with my ability to spot “well handicapped horses” from past results, the problem I have at the moment is reducing my morning shortlist to those with the most realistic chance.
Of the 2 horses I advised as selections on Saturday, both ran good races and both (in my opinion) looked unlucky to finish where they did. ZUIDER ZEE was well placed and coming with a run till being bumped hard by the eventual winner Rock A Doodle Doo from which he did not recover, but stayed on to be 4th. I reckon he could well have won from where he was without that bump, and I’ll be looking to recoup NTO. Similarly, CHIEFDOM PRINCE was staying-on well, having looked outpaced about 2½ furlongs out, but then was squeezed out by eventual winner Imperial Guest about 250 yards out from which point he wasn’t pushed. He will have learnt a lot from this race, and I will certainly be on him NTO off this great rating of OR87. The other horse written about on the blog (but not nominated as a selection) NASRI, ran a cracker. I did say he was worthy of a small eachway wager and at 20/1 he came up with the goods to be 3rd, having looked like staying-on to win when leading inside the furlong pole. Those who “back-to-lay” must surely have made a killing on him.
To recap, here are the selections nominated by the blog since returning from the Easter break:-
20th April, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 6/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
21st April, PRINCE DES MARAIS, ½pt win @ 6/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
21st April, DOUBLE DIZZY, ½pt win @ 11/1; unplaced …0.50pts lost
23rd April, FRENCH OPERA, ½pt win @ 100/30; WON …1.67pts profit
23rd April, CALYPSO MAGIC, ½pt win @ 13/2; lost …0.50pts lost
27th April, CRITICAL MOMENT, ½pt win @ 7/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
27th April, AKMAL, 1pt win @ 9/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
27th April, ANTIGUA SUNRISE, ½pt win @ 8/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
30th April, CAI SHEN, 2pts win @ 4/1; 2nd …2.00pts lost
30th April, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1; 3rd …1.00pt lost
30th April, CAPE VALE, 1pt win @ 11/2, unplaced …1.00pt lost
6th May, GLEN’S DIAMOND, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts profit
7th May, ZUIDER ZEE, 1pt win @ 10/1; unplaced …1.00pt lost
7th May, CHIEFDOM PRINCE, ½pt win @ 11/2; unplaced …0.50pts lost
Summary to date (Flat Season from Grand National day) = 2.83pts in loss
I am going to continue sticking to my “well-handicapped horses” for my selections.
There are Flat race meetings at Brighton, Redcar and Windsor tonight, plus Jump racing at Towcester, and and AW meeting at Wolverhampton. For any Jump selections, I suggest visiting the blog of Bechersbrook (Robert Gibbs - see adjacent link) who halted a barren spell with a cracking winner in the opener at Worcester yesterday which he was plugging 24-hours earlier. His selection Fade To Grey won with an SP of 14/1 but, if that wasn’t good enough, odds of 20/1 was available for most of the day prior to the race.
I don’t like Brighton as a track, so I’m giving that meeting a miss. The Redcar meeting looks dire, so another line thru’ that. So it’s Windsor.
At Windsor, Saeed bin Suroor has a great strikerate if you ignore his 2yo’s; 12 winners from 37 runners (32.4%) in past 4 seasons. He has just the one runner today, and it’s here at Windsor in the 6:10 - JARIDH. There has been a serious market move for the Hannon horse Puttingonthestyle in this, but none of the other 8 horses produced by his dam won beyond a mile, and this son of Desert Style needs to prove to me he stays 10-furlongs. Luca Cumani’s Praxios is a half-bro to Group 1 winner Presvis who did not run until he was a 4yo, so perhaps Praxios needs more time to develop. Gerald Butler (6 wins from 14 with 3yo’s at Windsor) has race-fit Little Black Book, and he looks on a fair rating at OR73. However, JARIDH at 12/1 looks worthy of support as he should stay this trip and he is bred to be a lot better than OR73 (half-bro Al Ghazal ran in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy, and won over 10-furlongs as a 2yo).
In the next on the card, SIDE GLANCE is top-rated and should prove hard to beat. A glance at the form book shows that Imperial Guest - who won on Saturday – paid him a compliment as they were both close-up in the Totesport Challenge Cup at Ascot last September (race won by Redford) and that form is working out very well indeed. But at 5/4, I cannot recommend a wager on SIDE GLANCE.
There is only one from my alert list running today and that is FRANCISCAN in the 7:10 over an extended mile for Luca Cumani. I noted after his win LTO that this long-striding colt (who won well with strong run from last to first) looks capable of staying 10f. He’s a half-bro to top horse Forte Dei Marmi who improved from OR73 to OR111 as 3yo. FRANCISCAN runs off OR70 today (up just 3lb for his win) and I will be very surprised if he does not follow-up. I was hoping to get 4/1, but at the moment he’s 100/30 (only with Ladbrokes) and that’s “fair” given the opposition. The 2nd-fav is Pivot Bridge who is a half-bro to 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa, but he was well held when btn LTO and the winner did not follow-up NTO.
Windsor 6:10, JARIDH, ¼pt eachway @ 12/1 (available generally, best odds guaranteed)
Windsor 7:10, FRANCISCAN, 1pt win @ 100/30 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 9 May 2011
Suroor can strike at Windsor with his only runner
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