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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday 23 May 2011
A comeback for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER
After a decent Saturday, the blog starts this week having reduced the deficit to 3.58pts. As I commented on Saturday after knowing the results, I am feeling very confident that the work I’ve put in assessing past results (provided in the results pull-out in the Weekender) is coming to fruition. Of course, on a day like Saturday which had 6 flat-racing meetings, I could have put-up a dozen-or-so selections and bamboozled my readers and followers on twitter, but that is not the point of this blog. My over-riding edict is to…
“write an informative and entertaining blog which provides the reader with advice on horseracing.”
Alongside that (of course) is the expectation that advice will provide readers with a profit in the long-term if following the wagers advised.
Having watched the re-runs of racing on Saturday, I was miffed that we didn’t get off to a good winner with WINTER’S NIGHT. She easily got the mile having taken a wide line into the straight, and then tried to run-up the stands rail. She was alongside the eventual winner at that point but, (unlike Sagramor) did not get a clear run thru’. Once seeing daylight at the furlong pole she finished like a steam-train but would not have caught the winner. I hope the handicapper is lenient as she looks a winner in waiting. A word for Sagramor, this horse was bought-in by his owner breeder for just £500 at Brightwells sales – who says unfashionable breeding can’t produce winners?
Next up (just 15 mins later) was HARLESTONE TIMES, and had I known that he would drift out to 3/1 then I would’ve suggested a 2pts stake. In the morning I thought he looked so “well-in” (as the form of his previous race had worked-out so well) that I expected him to start the 2/1 (or shorter) fav. However, as can happen with the exchanges on a Saturday, the punters went for the “potential” of Beachfire who has now failed for the 3rd time to live-up to his form when winning at Goodwood last summer. It looked a workmanlike slog for HARLESTONE TIMES in taking this, as the runner-up Nave ran a brave race on going that was a lot quicker than he likes. Even so, it was run in a fast time and I’d expect HARLESTONE TIMES to get a mile & 6-fulongs this season (like his half-bro, the ill-fated Harlestone Snake).
The 3rd selection on Saturday, NORVILLE, ran his usual game, front-running race. As I said in my blog on Saturday, having been beaten off OR90 LTO, having to run of OR95 was a tough task and it was only as he was racing at Chester from a good draw, and the track suited his style of running, that I made him a selection. He may well struggle now unless he gets some respite from the handicapper.
I also mentioned KARAKA JACK in the narrative on Saturday and didn’t recommend a wager on him as I reckon he needs 7-furlongs. Well, I was right AND wrong with this one. Yes, he didn’t win – but were it not being caught close home by Dickie Le Daviour he would have. So, I stick to my guns and suggest that 7-furlongs and going on the quick side of good will bring the best out of KARAKA JACK, but I was wrong in thinking he did not have the speed to win (or run well) at 6-furlongs.
There are no blog selections as I write this, tho’ there is an interesting race at Thirsk at 8:00 over 12f that I may return later on with a selection for. So, please check the blog again at about 5pm. At Windsor, there is (or was) a potentially very good 6-furlong Listed race and I was going to recommend Elnawin, but he’s a non-runner. While I think Bated Breath has potential to be very good in this sphere, his overall speed ratings don’t excite me, so he’s not a value wager at 5/4. But Richard Hannon’s MONSIEUR CHEVALIER was an exciting 2yo and, even tho’ he’s been off for 596 days with a cracked pelvis, memories of his wins in the Super Sprint and Molecombe are still fresh. He didn’t get 6-furlongs as a 2yo, but at 12/1 (Bet365 and Boyles) he looks worthy of an eachway wager.
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