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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 21 May 2011

Can we cope with an OVERDOSE?

This is the 283rd edition of the daily blog page (made a bit of a booboo and didn’t add up the pages adjacent correctly).

After a week of (on the whole) boring run-of-the-mill racing, we have today a programme of racing around the country that is filled with competitive and compelling races.

But, before that, yesterday’s selection TAURUS TWINS was heavily supported thru’out the day from 12/1 in the morning to opening on-course at 6’s, before starting with an SP of 5/1. Had I known he would shorten so much, I would have advised “trading-out” your stake at 6/1 (7.00 on the exchanges) as then you would have had a completely no-risk wager. Unfortunately, he met a rival who only knows one-way of running – flat out from the start, and Bronze Beau got the lead and held it to the finish. I would not expect Bronze Beau to follow-up, and believe that if TAURUS TWINS had come out of the stalls a bit quicker and raced alongside him then TAURUS TWINS would have won as Bronze Beau does not enjoy fighting for the lead.

Onto today and where do I start?
Meetings are at Chester, Goodwood, Haydock and York this afternoon, with Newbury and Lingfield this evening.
From my Flat Racing Notebook we have:-
WINTER’S NIGHT in the 2:30 at Haydock
NORVILLE in the 4:00 at Chester
KARAKA JACK in the 4:05 at Haydock

NORVILLE is racing over 7-furlongs at Chester and he only just failed over C&D LTO. His form is holding up well (Swiss Cross behind in 3rd that day, won NTO) and he will run his heart out today. But he could not win off OR90 LTO and off OR95 today he will have a tough task. Even so, current odds of 7/1 look fair given he has stall 5 and should be up with the pace thru’out on a track that suits his style of running. The rest of the Chester card looks great, open and competitive handicaps and anyone going racing will have tremendous entertainment today.

Haydock is the day’s feature meeting and the WINTER’S NIGHT runs in the 2:30 which is a very competitive h’cap over a mile. I think the likely fav Polar Kite is an improving sort, but who will probably want further than a mile, like his full-brother Icemancometh. But, Polar Kite will ensure a good pace and that is what WINTER’S NIGHT needs. It is a step-up in trip for her, but she looks like she needs a mile and she was only raised 3lb for her win LTO. Drawn 13 isn’t the best of draws, but at 10/1 she looks fair value and with 4-places (17 runners) she is a decent eachway wager.

If OVERDOSE is the real-deal, then he’ll win the Temple Stakes at 3:00, and at 7/2 (Betfred) it’s worth taking the chance that he is. Finally, KARAKA JACK drops down to 6-furlongs today for the 4:05 at Haydock, and I think that’s the wrong move – he needs 7-furlongs.

At York, I would have been on Humidor for the 5f sprint at 3:40, but he’s a non-runner. As such, I would recommend supporting Ancient Cross in this as he was a close 2nd to Humidor in October last year and that form is working out well. He won over C&D at the Dante meeting last week and he will go close – but betting on 19-runner 5-furlong races is perilous at best.

At Goodwood, previous blog selection HARLESTONE TIMES runs in the 2:45, a class 2 112-furlong h’cap. Of those who finished behind him at Epsom, Rock A Doodle Doo and Zigato have since won, and I thought HARLESTONE TIMES was unlucky in that race and tho’ he may not have won (the winner looked very good) he may have pushed it close. He was raised 6lb for that run, but he’s won at Goodwood before, and is clearly a well-balanced horse who can cope with the undulations being a winner at Brighton, and also his good run at Epsom. Odds of 5/2 are not great, but it is hard to see one in this race being better today.

The blog is in need of a winner and a good winner too. So, here are today’s selections:-

Haydock 2:30, WINTER’S NIGHT, ½pt eachway @ 10/1
(Bet365 & William Hill, best odds guaranteed – 4 places, ¼ odds a place)
Goodwood 2:45, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Chester 4:00, NORVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 (Bet365 & Betfred, best odds guaranteed – 3 places, 5th odds a place)
Total = 3pts staked

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1 comment:

  1. A good day for the blog, and close to being a great day. I thought WINTER'S NIGHT had it won at one point close home, but 3rd was better than nothing.
    HARLESTONE TIMES was a great result winning at 3/1.
    And NORVILLE nearly made is a return from all 3 selections when losing out on 3rd by just a neck.