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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 28 May 2011

The Moon is a balloon

This is the 290th edition of the daily blog page.

Two selections yesterday and FLOWING CAPE was a non-runner. Unfortunately, AUDACIOUS ran very poorly and was outclassed – simple as that. However, I did write of the winner Malthouse (the only other horse I mentioned in the race)…
“Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive.” That he certainly did, and I had a “”saver” wager on him when he went to 11.50 on Betfair, which I layed-off at 3.05 in-running to secure myself a decent profit.

Onto today and, with so much racing, I am going to focus on those (like last week) that have been mentioned in despatches.

In Haydock’s opener at 2:05 we have ZUIDER ZEE, who is in the Notebook and was subject of a wager LTO. He’s stepped-up to 2-mile today and tho’ that is 2-furlongs longer than he has raced-over before, his 4th in the Melrose last season over 1m 6f suggests this trip is within his scope and, as he has an entry for the Northumberland Plate, these trips are his target. What concerns me is the going as it may be a bit too quick. But Gosden (for whom this horse is his only runner at Haydock) says he won’t run if the going isn’t suitable and that’s good enough for me. Current odds of 7/2 are very skinny tho’.

From my personal list are:-
BIARAAFA - Newmarket 2:20
CAI SHEN – Newmarket 2:50
BONFIRE KNIGHT – Newmarket 4:00
FLOWING CAPE Catterick 4:40
CALLISTO MOON – Stratford 5:50

I think the extra 50 yards will suit FLOWING CAPE, and Catterick is a stiffer track than Bath, but will he reverse placings with Collect Art? The draw is in FLOWING CAPE’s favour, but he stays-on so a good draw is of no use to his running style. As such, it’s a “no” for FLOWING CAPE and Collect Art remains the one to beat in this.

BIARAAFA is stepped-up to a mile and I will pass him over as I reckon he won’t stay the trip.

CAI SHEN looks more interesting as he met a decent horse in Ocean War LTO and today’s going will suit him as it may have been a bit quick for him LTO. At 11/2 he looks worthy of a wager.

BONFIRE KNIGHT ran an absolute stinker LTO and for no apparent reason as he held a decent position half-a-mile out then didn’t run on. The 5lb claimer Harry Bentley is not a bad lad and I reckon there is not much opposition in this so BONFIRE KNIGHT is taken to bounce back. I’d want more than the 7/1 on offer tho’, but with 2 non-runners and only 8 going to post, that may be the best there is.

Lastly, CALLISTO MOON has never won beyond 2-mile & 2-furlongs so he was never going to stay 2m4f LTO. However, that race was his first in 7-months and his first for trainer Pat Murphy. Now, Murphy has not had a winner in over 12 months – jumps or flat – but CALLISTO MOON led LTO until just before the 2nd-last flight and he really needed that run. He was rated OR125 just over a year ago, and runs off OR110 today and this extended 2-mile trip will be just right for him as will the going. At 18/1 with Victor Chandler, he is an eachway wager.

Haydock 2:05, ZUIDER ZEE, ½pt win @ 7/2 (available generally, take best odds guaranteed)
Newmarket 2:50, CAI SHEN, ½pt win @ 11/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Stratford 5:50, CALLISTO MOON, ¼pt eachway @ 18/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed_
Total = 1½pts staked

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