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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 2 May 2011

Phenomenal FRANKEL

Wasn’t FRANKEL phenomenal!
I’ve been watching horseracing since I was 7yo (my first classic recollection being Royal Palace winning the Derby in 1967), and Frankel’s performance was perhaps the most exhilarating I’ve ever seen in the UK. In America, Secretariat was just as dominant when winning Belmont Stakes (3rd leg of their triple crown). And tho’ Sea Bird II in 1965 and Dancing Brave in 1986 were exceptional winners of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, neither of them could be called the winner fully 6-furlongs from the finishing post. I didn’t think that FRANKEL was as far ahead of the other 3yo’s prior to winning the Two Thousand Guineas as he showed, but I was on the right lines with naming NATIVE KHAN (along with Casamento) as likely to follow the winner home in the places.

For nominated selections, Saturday was not a good day as all 3 selections were beaten. KARAKA JACK looked poised to take the spoils at the 2-furlong pole but did not have the pace to go on and win, altho’ he stayed on well to be 3rd. The race winner – Dubai Dynamo – won twice this time last season over 7f on Good-to-Firm going (was also 5th in this race off OR88) and that suggests the going at Thirsk was quicker than “Good”. If he takes the Newcastle or Ripon races he contested last season then he could well follow-up. The going was almost certainly too quick for KARAKA JACK and as he’s unlikely to go up for this run, he’s worth another chance on proper good or good-to-soft going. It’s further evidence that the going was quicker than good that JUSTONEFORTHEROAD won the previous race on the card, as he goes best on good-to-firm. In the same race was SNOW BAY who was also on my personal Alert List, and I thought with both horses likely to run prominently and dispute the lead that they’d cancel each other out and set the race up for a “finisher”, I was wrong. They came home 1st and 2nd and I can take solace from the fact that my “Alert List” selection procedure is working well.

Next up was CAI SHEN at Newmarket, but the meeting as a whole was a cracker starting with Green Destiny winning the opening class 2 handicap. I did not analyse this race beforehand, but I wish I did as I am well aware of the breeding of Green Destiny who is a half-bro to the useful hurdler Manjam, and is related to Rainbow Quest via their dam, Mubkera. GREEN DESTINY looks to be on a serious upward curve and I would not be afraid of supporting him over trips up to 12f based on this performance. Dandino took the next race, but the performance to write home about was from NATIVE RULER in 2nd beaten just a nose. Off the track since August 2009, this is a half-bro to St Leger winner Sixties Icon, and their dam Love Divine won the Oaks. He never showed this quality as a 3yo, but clearly had potential as he was kept in training. He may need a break to get over this, but I’d still be interested in him NTO as he’s shown his mettle in this. As for DANDINO, over 12-furlongs and on good-to-firm, I’d follow him over a cliff – he never knows when he’s beaten.
John Gosden has really hit form, and he sent only one horse to Newmarket on Saturday, Treasury Devil who was 3rd behind Ocean War and CAI SHEN. Gosden sent 3 to Goodwood where he had 2 winners (at 16/1 and 7/2), so despite being beaten it may pay to pay Treasury Devil a closer look when he next runs. CAI SHEN met a horse destined for racing at a higher class in OCEAN WAR and I will give him another chance NTO.
The evening meeting at Doncaster opened with one from my Alert List, FRONTLINE PHANTOM winning the 5:35. Altho’ I never nominated him as a selection, his success again showed that my race analysis is going well.

Later, in the 7:45, CAPE VALE was a big drifter in the market (was 11.00 on betfair) and despite leading 2-furlongs out he could not hold on to the lead. I still think he’s capable of a good run off this mark, but he may need to be dropped a few pounds before his wins.

So, 4pts lost on the day. I am going to take a break from daily selections and try and recoup some (if not all) the deficit on the next couple of selections. I’m not in any rush to go back into the market again but, when I do, I’ll make it known via twitter.

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