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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 11 May 2011

Cracking meeting at York today

There were no selections recommended on the blog yesterday, altho’ I note that my “old friend” Abragante finally won a hunter chase at Sedgefield last night. Jockey, Paul Hanagan, is riding out of his skin at the moment and altho’ drawing a blank at Beverley in the afternoon, he scored a hat-trick from 5 rides at Southwell in the evening.
Trainer Barry Hills also had 3 winners (from just 6 runners) yesterday, following on from his 2 wins from 3 runners on Monday. He has 2 runners at York this afternoon.
At Yarmouth, the 5lb claimer Adam Beschizza had 2 wins from 5 rides (both for Julia Feilden) and this claimer is worth noting. He’s ridden 9 winners from just 49 rides this season.

Onto York, today’s only Flat race meeting.
Considering it is one of the top meetings of the season, I’m amazed that some of Newmarkets top stables are represented by so few runners today. Sir Michael Stoute send just Treble Jig (1:30), Saeed bin Suroor sends just Delegator (3:00), Richard Hannon, sends just Invincible Ridge (2:00); Luca Cumani sends just Danadana (4:45).
The meeting opens with a cracking race, a Class 2 h’cap over an extended 10-furlongs. Stoute won this last year, and so his only runner today Treble Jig must be respected, but there is some tough opposition. I believe that it is an advantage to be prominent at York in these sort of races with plenty of runners. With 20 runners a high draw is not advantageous, and so I have to oppose the market leaders Taqleed (drawn 20) and Pekan Star (17). The unexposed Cecil runner Diescentric really could be anything, but with just 2 runs to-date and off the track for 363 days, there will be easier tasks for this likely hold-up horse. Of the likely prominent runners, 2009 John Smiths Cup winner SIRVINO looks interesting. He will appreciate the “good” going and this 10f trip (I’m not sure he stays 12f) and his seasonal debut will have brought him on. Drawn 2 and with Graham Gibbons in the saddle, he’s better than a 20/1 chance. He was behind Resurge that day, and he meets him on 7lb better terms. There will be a fierce pace on in this race, and that might just set it up for a hold-up horse, and one that meets the bill is BONFIRE KNIGHT. The form of his latest win is working out well as the runner-up that day (Snow Dancer) won NTO, as did the 4th Abergavenny (has won 2 hurdle races). The 3rd and 5th have also held-up the form, and the 6th (Hydrant) was only beaten by the vastly improved Frontline Phantom last week, with the rest well behind. He’s 12/1 and that looks fair to me, as I’d have him a few points shorter.

The next race to take my interst on this card is the 6f Duke Of York Stakes (Group 2). This looks between Genki and Regal Parade. For a good analysis of this race, take a look at the Sprinterstogo blog (see adjacent link) which specialises in sprint racing. One that I like the look of in this is the 4yo INLER. This is the only horse trainer Brian Meehan has sent to York this week and this one-time Guineas “dark-horse” wasn’t far off on his seasonal debut in the Abernant behind Genki. He stays 6f well (has won over 7f) and showed plenty of speed LTO, despite looking like needing the run. As a result of that, he was pulled-out of the sales and retained by his owners. I reckon Regal Parade needs to get his toe in the ground and it may be a bit quick for him today. Delegator (Suroor’s only runner) is a top-class horse, but will he appreciate 6-furlongs? Will Dalghar improve for his move to Andrew Balding’s stable? The draw for Inler (14) is a problem, as the pace will come from those drawn from 2 to 7, but he may be able to run on to take a place, so 16/1 looks more than fair but I reckon I’ll be playing the “place-only” market with him.

I was very taken with the run of Antigua Sunrise LTO, who I felt should have won. He was unbalanced that day when his inexperienced rider (a 7lb claimer) brought him to challenge. That’s the price you pay sometimes with “claimers”, but jockeys have to start somewhere so it’s not a criticism. This is no easy task for Antigua Sunrise today in the 3:35, drawn 15 of 20; however,Paul Hanagan is in the saddle and I can see him finishing in the 1st-4 but odds of 8/1 are not eachway value. The race should be between the Mark Johnston pair of Becausewecan (drawn 3) and Lovers Causeway (drawn 2) – but which one?

I am going to have 2 selections in the opener instead of a single selection at eachway.
York 1:30, SIRVINO, ½pt win @ 20/1 (Bet365 and William Hill, both best odds guaranteed)
York 1:30, BONFIRE KNIGHT, ½pt win @ 12/1 (Bet365 and William Hill, both best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked

I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen). Please take a look, and I will be making some new additions during the day as I review the recent results from todays Weekender.

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