The 392nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)
Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.
There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.
At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.
Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.
David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!
Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.
No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
Sunday, 27 November 2011
Sunday supplement
The 391st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)
A blank day yesterday with WYKE HILL falling at the 3rd fence before the race had properly got going, and HUMBIE running an absolute stinker. It was an uncharacteristic error for WYKE HILL, he just never got enough height and crashed thru’ the fence, despite leading the field into it (thereby having a clear view). As for HUMBIE, he never looked happy from the off, and altho’ he made some good jumps and looked capable of getting back into the race when they passed half-way, that effort was short-lived. As such, top-weight Hey Big Spender merely had to run to form to win this.
My antepost selection in the Hennessey – SARANDO – was the 1st to fall at the 16th (of 21) fence. The race was just starting to hot-up and he was bustled into the previous fence, so he may have been feeling the pinch a bit. Up until then, he was running and jumping well, so I’d say he’s well handicapped off OR153 and he should be winning again NTO. Overall, I thought the Hennessey was a decent race and the eventual winner CARRUTHERS ran up to the level of his best form the Spring of 2010 (when he ran 4th in the Gold Cup to Imperial Commander). There are a lot of worse antepost wagers you could make than considering CARRUTHERS and yesterday’s runner-up PLANET OF SOUND for the Gold Cup as place prospects. Considering PLANET OF SOUND has run only 4 times at trips beyond 2m5f, his record is that of a top-class chaser and he should be aimed at the Gold Cup (there was talk of the Grand National yesterday) as he has a real chance as he’d have beaten Long Run in last week’s Betfair Chase based on this Hennessey run.
My biggest disappointment was not putting-up OVERTURN as a selection at 3/1, as he was never going to be caught by Binocular in the fighting Fifth hurdle. There was a bit of debate on Twitter about the consistency of Binocular, tho’ I’m not sure why as there cannot be many racing fans who don’t know that the only target for the horse is the Champion Hurdle in March and any races prior to that are part of the preparation for the big race. If this pair meets again on Boxing Day at Kempton, I expect Binocular to improve about 7lb and beat Overturn by a few lengths, and I expect a further 7lb improvement on that again for the Champion Hurdle in March.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)
A blank day yesterday with WYKE HILL falling at the 3rd fence before the race had properly got going, and HUMBIE running an absolute stinker. It was an uncharacteristic error for WYKE HILL, he just never got enough height and crashed thru’ the fence, despite leading the field into it (thereby having a clear view). As for HUMBIE, he never looked happy from the off, and altho’ he made some good jumps and looked capable of getting back into the race when they passed half-way, that effort was short-lived. As such, top-weight Hey Big Spender merely had to run to form to win this.
My antepost selection in the Hennessey – SARANDO – was the 1st to fall at the 16th (of 21) fence. The race was just starting to hot-up and he was bustled into the previous fence, so he may have been feeling the pinch a bit. Up until then, he was running and jumping well, so I’d say he’s well handicapped off OR153 and he should be winning again NTO. Overall, I thought the Hennessey was a decent race and the eventual winner CARRUTHERS ran up to the level of his best form the Spring of 2010 (when he ran 4th in the Gold Cup to Imperial Commander). There are a lot of worse antepost wagers you could make than considering CARRUTHERS and yesterday’s runner-up PLANET OF SOUND for the Gold Cup as place prospects. Considering PLANET OF SOUND has run only 4 times at trips beyond 2m5f, his record is that of a top-class chaser and he should be aimed at the Gold Cup (there was talk of the Grand National yesterday) as he has a real chance as he’d have beaten Long Run in last week’s Betfair Chase based on this Hennessey run.
My biggest disappointment was not putting-up OVERTURN as a selection at 3/1, as he was never going to be caught by Binocular in the fighting Fifth hurdle. There was a bit of debate on Twitter about the consistency of Binocular, tho’ I’m not sure why as there cannot be many racing fans who don’t know that the only target for the horse is the Champion Hurdle in March and any races prior to that are part of the preparation for the big race. If this pair meets again on Boxing Day at Kempton, I expect Binocular to improve about 7lb and beat Overturn by a few lengths, and I expect a further 7lb improvement on that again for the Champion Hurdle in March.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 26 November 2011
Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury
The 390th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)
Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.
It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.
On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.
At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.
At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.
Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.
Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.
Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)
Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.
It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.
On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.
At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.
At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.
Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.
Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.
Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 25 November 2011
The money is going down today!
The 389th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.
There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).
Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.
In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).
Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.
There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).
Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.
In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).
Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 24 November 2011
Grands Crus to make another step towards the Arkle
The 388th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday as I managed to persuade myself that recommending a wager on MONSIEUR JORDAIN was not a good idea despite him being an improving 5yo chaser who was guaranteed to stay the 2m 6f &110 yard trip. He went and won at 10/1 benefiting from the last fence fall of the favourite Dusky Bob; but that one was probably tiring anyway (the reason for the fall?) and may not held onto the lead anyhow. At least I know I’m on the right track reading the form-lines as I read that race near perfect. MONSIEUR JORDAIN was only 7/1 in the morning when I posted my blog, which was a big reason why he wasn’t a selection. I managed to obtain 12.50 on Betfair just before the off, which is equivalent to 11/1, and I traded out my stake at 3.10.
We have 3 jumps cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter today, so let’s see what’s in store.
At Newbury, I’m looking to oppose the fav in the opener with Emma Lavelle’s KENTFORD GREY LADY as those 2 that beat here LTO are above average, and this is a much easier task. Next-up, the novice chase at 1:00 has a Henderson chasing debutant in Celtus and that should allow one from my alert list THE COCKNEY MACKEM to go off at a bit of value. He easily has the best chasing form in this race and should be odds-on; instead, we could get 9/4. Edgardo Sol who beat him a nose LTO has won again since and is rated OR134, and THE COCKNEY MACKEM is on a par with that. At 1:35, the novice h’cap hurdle over 2m5f has been won by some decent horses in recent years and I have PROMISED WINGS on my alert list after he lost LTO by demolishing the final hurdle. That said, I’m not sure an extra furlong will be to his good, and the fav Sentimental Journey could prove hard to beat in what looks a competitive race.
GRANDS CRUS reappears in the 2:10 and it is most unlikely that he won’t win this, tho’ Viking Blond will be no pushover. It’s hard to know what to make of Sonofvic until he jumps a fence in public.
Buffalo Bob won the 2:45 last year, but his trainer Kim Bailey has his stable in poor form and he ran a stinker LTO (with my money on and as a selection for the blog). Current fav Zarrafakt hacked-up on his seasonal debut last season but then flopped in this and again in the Spring. I don’t think he can be relied upon, and neither can Rackham Lerouge. That’lldoboy was the main beneficiary of tardy jumping by his rivals LTO and that form could be unreliable. Leading Contender does not do well in fields of more than 6 runners, and so that brings me to PIRAYA. He stays this trip, will appreciate the going and he has run well at this meeting for the past 2 seasons (he was 3rd over 2m4f off OR142 here last year). He ran well on his seasonal debut last week, and David Pipe is likely to have aimed him at the race so he should have come on for that run. It looks a tough ask with 11st 12lb, but no recent winner has carried less than 11st 5lb so he’s got trends on his side.
Nothing takes my eye at Taunton, and at Uttoxeter I want to see CROSS KENNON win the beginners chase but the rest of the card leaves me cold.
Do I have a selection today? After yesterday, I should go with my conviction and have a punt on PIRAYA, but with only 1 win from 20 starts in the UK he would not be a confident selection.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Lastly, a recommendation to readers of the blog to visit G-Star Sports Tips (http://gstarfrankels.blogspot.com) who gave the following winners from yesterday: Hazy Tom, Best Lover, Always Bold, Restaurateur and Bailadeira - that’s 5 winners from 7 selections. What’s more, they are not just names on a blank page, each selection has some narrative as to why it has been chosen.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday as I managed to persuade myself that recommending a wager on MONSIEUR JORDAIN was not a good idea despite him being an improving 5yo chaser who was guaranteed to stay the 2m 6f &110 yard trip. He went and won at 10/1 benefiting from the last fence fall of the favourite Dusky Bob; but that one was probably tiring anyway (the reason for the fall?) and may not held onto the lead anyhow. At least I know I’m on the right track reading the form-lines as I read that race near perfect. MONSIEUR JORDAIN was only 7/1 in the morning when I posted my blog, which was a big reason why he wasn’t a selection. I managed to obtain 12.50 on Betfair just before the off, which is equivalent to 11/1, and I traded out my stake at 3.10.
We have 3 jumps cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter today, so let’s see what’s in store.
At Newbury, I’m looking to oppose the fav in the opener with Emma Lavelle’s KENTFORD GREY LADY as those 2 that beat here LTO are above average, and this is a much easier task. Next-up, the novice chase at 1:00 has a Henderson chasing debutant in Celtus and that should allow one from my alert list THE COCKNEY MACKEM to go off at a bit of value. He easily has the best chasing form in this race and should be odds-on; instead, we could get 9/4. Edgardo Sol who beat him a nose LTO has won again since and is rated OR134, and THE COCKNEY MACKEM is on a par with that. At 1:35, the novice h’cap hurdle over 2m5f has been won by some decent horses in recent years and I have PROMISED WINGS on my alert list after he lost LTO by demolishing the final hurdle. That said, I’m not sure an extra furlong will be to his good, and the fav Sentimental Journey could prove hard to beat in what looks a competitive race.
GRANDS CRUS reappears in the 2:10 and it is most unlikely that he won’t win this, tho’ Viking Blond will be no pushover. It’s hard to know what to make of Sonofvic until he jumps a fence in public.
Buffalo Bob won the 2:45 last year, but his trainer Kim Bailey has his stable in poor form and he ran a stinker LTO (with my money on and as a selection for the blog). Current fav Zarrafakt hacked-up on his seasonal debut last season but then flopped in this and again in the Spring. I don’t think he can be relied upon, and neither can Rackham Lerouge. That’lldoboy was the main beneficiary of tardy jumping by his rivals LTO and that form could be unreliable. Leading Contender does not do well in fields of more than 6 runners, and so that brings me to PIRAYA. He stays this trip, will appreciate the going and he has run well at this meeting for the past 2 seasons (he was 3rd over 2m4f off OR142 here last year). He ran well on his seasonal debut last week, and David Pipe is likely to have aimed him at the race so he should have come on for that run. It looks a tough ask with 11st 12lb, but no recent winner has carried less than 11st 5lb so he’s got trends on his side.
Nothing takes my eye at Taunton, and at Uttoxeter I want to see CROSS KENNON win the beginners chase but the rest of the card leaves me cold.
Do I have a selection today? After yesterday, I should go with my conviction and have a punt on PIRAYA, but with only 1 win from 20 starts in the UK he would not be a confident selection.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Lastly, a recommendation to readers of the blog to visit G-Star Sports Tips (http://gstarfrankels.blogspot.com) who gave the following winners from yesterday: Hazy Tom, Best Lover, Always Bold, Restaurateur and Bailadeira - that’s 5 winners from 7 selections. What’s more, they are not just names on a blank page, each selection has some narrative as to why it has been chosen.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Is the 'swinger' value?
The 387th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday, but I was interested in the result of the 3-mile h’cap chase at Lingfield. This turned out to be a cracker of a race with 7 or 8 still in the hunt at the 4th last fence, after which Felix de Giles sent Wide Receiver, the 100/30 fav, on into a clear lead. They came to grief at the 3rd last fence when toppling over on landing. It’s debateable whether Wide Receiver would have won but I reckon he would as he’s won over 3m3f at Fontwell, so he wasn’t lacking stamina over this 3-mile trip. The race was won by chasing debutant Monbeg Dude, who travelled very well in-behind the leaders and he looks good to follow-up as with a winning margin of just a head over Goring One, the handicapper cannot be too harsh. Any stamina doubts about Goring One were dispelled and, on reflection, I’m putting all 3 named horses onto my alert list. I was also interested to learn that the Tote “swinger” for 2nd & 3rd paid £14.60 – I would not have selected Monbeg Dude going into yesterday’s race, but Goring One and Pete The Feat were both on my radar.
Racing today looks uninteresting, and I’m only taken by the 3:05 at Wetherby, a class 4 h’cap chase over 2m 6f & 110 yards. The 5yo MONSIEUR JOURDAIN was beaten on the run-in LTO by Lockstown, who needs every yard of 3-miles (and more), but he looked like winning jumping the last fence and continued to pull-away from the fav (proven stayer Coppers Gold). Today’s fav Dusky Bob has never won from 4 attempts beyond 2m4f & 110 yards, so he may find stamina an issue today even tho’ he should handle the good-to-soft going. I don’t know what to make of Quel Ballistic, but he looks harshly treated on OR107. Banoge is a one-paced plodder who wants the going hock-deep in mud. Quel Bruere will stay 3-mile and should guarantee a fair pace, but again looks one-paced at the business end. AP McCoy returns to the saddle on I’m A Decider and altho’ his last 3 wins have been on good-to-firm and he flopped LTO when running on heavy, he has won on soft going and shown form on good-to-soft before now, and he should not be 12/1 for this. Allenard’s 3rd to Wide Receiver (see remarks above) could be good enough to see him in contention as the drop in trip LTO wasn’t in his favour, and he’s another who should not be 12/1 for this. Dawn Ride loves Wetherby, but his jumping is poor in fields larger than 6 runners and he cannot be advised. Dystonia’s Revenge has no chance. The race should be between Quel Bruere, Monsieur Jourdain, I’m A Decider and Allenard (should the fav, Dusky Bob, not stay the trip) and I cannot split them, so I will probably play the “place-only” markets on these.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday, but I was interested in the result of the 3-mile h’cap chase at Lingfield. This turned out to be a cracker of a race with 7 or 8 still in the hunt at the 4th last fence, after which Felix de Giles sent Wide Receiver, the 100/30 fav, on into a clear lead. They came to grief at the 3rd last fence when toppling over on landing. It’s debateable whether Wide Receiver would have won but I reckon he would as he’s won over 3m3f at Fontwell, so he wasn’t lacking stamina over this 3-mile trip. The race was won by chasing debutant Monbeg Dude, who travelled very well in-behind the leaders and he looks good to follow-up as with a winning margin of just a head over Goring One, the handicapper cannot be too harsh. Any stamina doubts about Goring One were dispelled and, on reflection, I’m putting all 3 named horses onto my alert list. I was also interested to learn that the Tote “swinger” for 2nd & 3rd paid £14.60 – I would not have selected Monbeg Dude going into yesterday’s race, but Goring One and Pete The Feat were both on my radar.
Racing today looks uninteresting, and I’m only taken by the 3:05 at Wetherby, a class 4 h’cap chase over 2m 6f & 110 yards. The 5yo MONSIEUR JOURDAIN was beaten on the run-in LTO by Lockstown, who needs every yard of 3-miles (and more), but he looked like winning jumping the last fence and continued to pull-away from the fav (proven stayer Coppers Gold). Today’s fav Dusky Bob has never won from 4 attempts beyond 2m4f & 110 yards, so he may find stamina an issue today even tho’ he should handle the good-to-soft going. I don’t know what to make of Quel Ballistic, but he looks harshly treated on OR107. Banoge is a one-paced plodder who wants the going hock-deep in mud. Quel Bruere will stay 3-mile and should guarantee a fair pace, but again looks one-paced at the business end. AP McCoy returns to the saddle on I’m A Decider and altho’ his last 3 wins have been on good-to-firm and he flopped LTO when running on heavy, he has won on soft going and shown form on good-to-soft before now, and he should not be 12/1 for this. Allenard’s 3rd to Wide Receiver (see remarks above) could be good enough to see him in contention as the drop in trip LTO wasn’t in his favour, and he’s another who should not be 12/1 for this. Dawn Ride loves Wetherby, but his jumping is poor in fields larger than 6 runners and he cannot be advised. Dystonia’s Revenge has no chance. The race should be between Quel Bruere, Monsieur Jourdain, I’m A Decider and Allenard (should the fav, Dusky Bob, not stay the trip) and I cannot split them, so I will probably play the “place-only” markets on these.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Forgive me Father
The 386th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
What a tremendous day for Nicky Henderson yesterday.
He sent out 8 runners and had 7 winners, as he had 2 horses declared for the opener at Kempton (won by Darlan) and withdrew Wise Move at the start. This follows his 5 winners from 7 runners on Friday. It is a pity that he was not rewarded better with prize-money. Had Henderson placed a £500 accumulator on his 7 runners (and winners) he would have taken more off the bookies than he won in prize money. Henderson sends out 2 today, both run at Lingfield and I would expect both to win, but they are at such short odds I cannot recommend a wager. Remember, in jumps racing anything can happen and that element of “risk” has to be taken into account, for instance 1/8 chance Mossley nearly came down at the 14th fence in the 3-runner race that he won.
My sole selection yesterday MIDNIGHT APPEAL ran without any zip. It was an unexplainable run from the horse, but he never looked happy and his jumping was not confident. As he has been progressive (till yesterday) I will give him a chance to recoup the loss.
Today’s two meetings, at Lingfield and Sedgefield over the jumps, look ordinary. I’ve been thru’ the card at Sedgefield and there’s nothing that takes my eye. Pretty much the same at Lingfield, tho’ the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:20 is a puzzle. I would be wanting to oppose the fav Wide Receiver in this, especially if he goes off at under 3/1, as he won his last two races by wide margins pretty much simply because he outstayed the opposition. There will be no lacking opposition that stays the trip in this race, and Wide Receiver has been raised 14lb for his LTO win. Don’t get me wrong, he should start the fav on known form, but there are a couple in the race who may well upset him. Goring One is on the upgrade and is expected to stay this trip, but he’s also been raised 10lb for a facile win LTO. Anna Newton-Smith, trainer of Goring One, also has Pete The Feat in this race and he has no stamina issues. He would prefer the going soft tho’ as would most of the others. The one that takes my eye is FATHER PROBUS who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. Brennan rides 2 for Fergal O’Brien today and he’s won on 2 of his 4 rides in chases for Fergal. Last time out, FATHER PROBUS split 2 next-time-out winners in what was his debut chase. Admittedly, he would prefer the going to be a bit softer, but then so would the fav Wide Receiver. FATHER PROBUS is 8/1 with Ladbrokes and I can see him running a big race, but I think I’d want 10’s before having an eachway wager on him.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
What a tremendous day for Nicky Henderson yesterday.
He sent out 8 runners and had 7 winners, as he had 2 horses declared for the opener at Kempton (won by Darlan) and withdrew Wise Move at the start. This follows his 5 winners from 7 runners on Friday. It is a pity that he was not rewarded better with prize-money. Had Henderson placed a £500 accumulator on his 7 runners (and winners) he would have taken more off the bookies than he won in prize money. Henderson sends out 2 today, both run at Lingfield and I would expect both to win, but they are at such short odds I cannot recommend a wager. Remember, in jumps racing anything can happen and that element of “risk” has to be taken into account, for instance 1/8 chance Mossley nearly came down at the 14th fence in the 3-runner race that he won.
My sole selection yesterday MIDNIGHT APPEAL ran without any zip. It was an unexplainable run from the horse, but he never looked happy and his jumping was not confident. As he has been progressive (till yesterday) I will give him a chance to recoup the loss.
Today’s two meetings, at Lingfield and Sedgefield over the jumps, look ordinary. I’ve been thru’ the card at Sedgefield and there’s nothing that takes my eye. Pretty much the same at Lingfield, tho’ the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:20 is a puzzle. I would be wanting to oppose the fav Wide Receiver in this, especially if he goes off at under 3/1, as he won his last two races by wide margins pretty much simply because he outstayed the opposition. There will be no lacking opposition that stays the trip in this race, and Wide Receiver has been raised 14lb for his LTO win. Don’t get me wrong, he should start the fav on known form, but there are a couple in the race who may well upset him. Goring One is on the upgrade and is expected to stay this trip, but he’s also been raised 10lb for a facile win LTO. Anna Newton-Smith, trainer of Goring One, also has Pete The Feat in this race and he has no stamina issues. He would prefer the going soft tho’ as would most of the others. The one that takes my eye is FATHER PROBUS who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. Brennan rides 2 for Fergal O’Brien today and he’s won on 2 of his 4 rides in chases for Fergal. Last time out, FATHER PROBUS split 2 next-time-out winners in what was his debut chase. Admittedly, he would prefer the going to be a bit softer, but then so would the fav Wide Receiver. FATHER PROBUS is 8/1 with Ladbrokes and I can see him running a big race, but I think I’d want 10’s before having an eachway wager on him.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 21 November 2011
If you want value, this is where to come
The 385th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.
There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”
There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.
There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”
There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 20 November 2011
One selection, and it's an 8/1 winner!
The 384th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 19 November 2011
Will Kauto Star be singing the blues?
The 383rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.
Let’s get straight to it, shall we?
I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.
At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.
My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.
I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.
If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.
Let’s get straight to it, shall we?
I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.
At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.
My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.
I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.
If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 17 November 2011
A couple to take from yesterday
The 382nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday’s selection SIGNALMAN ran well for a long way yesterday, but he met one in Lightening Rod who was a real “rick” in the handicap. The going was indeed soft/heavy at Hexham and that Lightening Rod looked so comfortable on it (despite not having looked to have handled it in the past) shows just how much he had in hand in winning this race. That said, I was on the right lines as SIGNALMAN started at 7/2, and I recommended him at 8/1 in the morning – so followers of the blog had plenty of opportunity to “lay-off” their stake or even take a 100% profit.
Later in the afternoon, I was taken with the gutsy run of DUSKY BOB in winning the class 4 hurdle off OR100. His half-bro has run well in Ireland off OR111 and stays 2m6f+, so I reckon DUSKY BOB should handle a rise in weights. I will also keep KING PENDA on my alert list as he made good headway from halfway until the going told before 2-out. Given it was far too soft for him, he will do a lot better when conditions are in his favour.
At Warwick, LEXICON LAD won on his debut chase race, from off a 202-day break. Always prominent, this was a tremendous display, especially as the race-fit LTO winner Loch Ba came to win the race 2-out but could not cope with the winner and the pair finished well clear of the remainder. LEXICON LAD appreciated going left-handed (previous 3 runs were going RH) and he is an exciting novice chaser who could run again at the weekend.
We have 3 jumps meetings today at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Hereford, and I’m on a personal recovery mission having posted 8 consecutive losers since staring the month well with 3 winners. Unfortunately, having been through all 3 cards looking for a wager that is suitable, I can’t find one. Hereford has what looks to be the best racing, so I shall continue studying the form there. There are also a couple of races at Wincanton that may provide an opportunity. If one comes up between now and noon, I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) and as a comment, and also with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday’s selection SIGNALMAN ran well for a long way yesterday, but he met one in Lightening Rod who was a real “rick” in the handicap. The going was indeed soft/heavy at Hexham and that Lightening Rod looked so comfortable on it (despite not having looked to have handled it in the past) shows just how much he had in hand in winning this race. That said, I was on the right lines as SIGNALMAN started at 7/2, and I recommended him at 8/1 in the morning – so followers of the blog had plenty of opportunity to “lay-off” their stake or even take a 100% profit.
Later in the afternoon, I was taken with the gutsy run of DUSKY BOB in winning the class 4 hurdle off OR100. His half-bro has run well in Ireland off OR111 and stays 2m6f+, so I reckon DUSKY BOB should handle a rise in weights. I will also keep KING PENDA on my alert list as he made good headway from halfway until the going told before 2-out. Given it was far too soft for him, he will do a lot better when conditions are in his favour.
At Warwick, LEXICON LAD won on his debut chase race, from off a 202-day break. Always prominent, this was a tremendous display, especially as the race-fit LTO winner Loch Ba came to win the race 2-out but could not cope with the winner and the pair finished well clear of the remainder. LEXICON LAD appreciated going left-handed (previous 3 runs were going RH) and he is an exciting novice chaser who could run again at the weekend.
We have 3 jumps meetings today at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Hereford, and I’m on a personal recovery mission having posted 8 consecutive losers since staring the month well with 3 winners. Unfortunately, having been through all 3 cards looking for a wager that is suitable, I can’t find one. Hereford has what looks to be the best racing, so I shall continue studying the form there. There are also a couple of races at Wincanton that may provide an opportunity. If one comes up between now and noon, I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) and as a comment, and also with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 2014 is...
The 381st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.
We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.
The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.
In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.
An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.
Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.
We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.
The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.
In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.
An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.
Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 15 November 2011
Looking for a winner at Folkestone
The 380th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ if you read the blog you will have noted that I wrote that Emma Lavelle has a good record at Plumpton – and she took the opener with the 11/1 winner Gleann Eagas. Lavelle has now recorded 8 winners from her last 19 runners.
Flaming George only just failed (by a neck) to win for Paul Nicholls, and this race looks decent form. On a more galloping track he could be capable of running to a level of 125+.
Master Milan looked like continuing Jonjo O’Neill's awful November until pure class got him home – his hurdling was atrocious. And trainer of the moment, David Pipe, came away with a brace of winners from 4 sent to Plumpton. Take note of WINGS OF ICARUS – he’s a half-brother to top class chaser QUITO DE LA ROQUE and World Hurdle 3rd, KAZAL. He should find 2m5f+ his best trip in time.
AP McCoy was at Leicester, and had 3 winners from 4 rides – none of them supplied by his retaining trainer, Jonjo O’Neill.
There are two meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone, and they are both poor quality. It could well be a day for following the money. At Folkestone, one from last season’s alert list runs in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Now, this horse has led me a merry dance these past 12 months, running 14 times since 19th Sept ’10 and winning 4 times at odds of 5/2, 13/2, 8/1 and 25/1 – and I did not have a wager on him when he won, but consistently followed him when he lost! Today, he is 9/2 with Paddy Power in what looks on paper to be a 2-horse race (only 5 go to post) as Current Climate makes his chase debut, and both Baroque and Romney Marsh are very poor chasers. With main rival Run To Fly making the long trip from South Wales for Peter Bowen, he is a 4/5 odds-on fav. Both are front-runners, both will stay this trip. What swings me towards ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES is that he’s won a chase off a 7lb higher rating, and he’s won on today’s going (good-to-firm). Also, claimer Tom Cannon takes off 5lb and he is worth every ounce. He’s won 7 chases from 21 rides for Chris Gordon (trainer of ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES) this season.
Selection:
Folkestone 3:30, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ if you read the blog you will have noted that I wrote that Emma Lavelle has a good record at Plumpton – and she took the opener with the 11/1 winner Gleann Eagas. Lavelle has now recorded 8 winners from her last 19 runners.
Flaming George only just failed (by a neck) to win for Paul Nicholls, and this race looks decent form. On a more galloping track he could be capable of running to a level of 125+.
Master Milan looked like continuing Jonjo O’Neill's awful November until pure class got him home – his hurdling was atrocious. And trainer of the moment, David Pipe, came away with a brace of winners from 4 sent to Plumpton. Take note of WINGS OF ICARUS – he’s a half-brother to top class chaser QUITO DE LA ROQUE and World Hurdle 3rd, KAZAL. He should find 2m5f+ his best trip in time.
AP McCoy was at Leicester, and had 3 winners from 4 rides – none of them supplied by his retaining trainer, Jonjo O’Neill.
There are two meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone, and they are both poor quality. It could well be a day for following the money. At Folkestone, one from last season’s alert list runs in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Now, this horse has led me a merry dance these past 12 months, running 14 times since 19th Sept ’10 and winning 4 times at odds of 5/2, 13/2, 8/1 and 25/1 – and I did not have a wager on him when he won, but consistently followed him when he lost! Today, he is 9/2 with Paddy Power in what looks on paper to be a 2-horse race (only 5 go to post) as Current Climate makes his chase debut, and both Baroque and Romney Marsh are very poor chasers. With main rival Run To Fly making the long trip from South Wales for Peter Bowen, he is a 4/5 odds-on fav. Both are front-runners, both will stay this trip. What swings me towards ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES is that he’s won a chase off a 7lb higher rating, and he’s won on today’s going (good-to-firm). Also, claimer Tom Cannon takes off 5lb and he is worth every ounce. He’s won 7 chases from 21 rides for Chris Gordon (trainer of ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES) this season.
Selection:
Folkestone 3:30, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
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Monday, 14 November 2011
If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence
The 379th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ perhaps I should have had a nibble as Viva Colonia managed to sneak 5th in the Greatwood and I wrote yesterday that he could sneak a place (Betfred and Tote were 50/1 and paid on 5 places). It was another tremendous ride from Harry Derham to win on Brampour, as he found the cleanest line round the tight home turn (far too tight a home bend in my opinion) to run out a clear winner.
Stablemate Sanctuaire took a wider line and may have finished closer but for being knocked sideways by the violent swerve from Moondice just before the final flight. The tight bend meant most in the leading group moved onto the stands rail and room there was tight (hence Brampour having the “cleanest” run to the line having stuck to the far side). I would take both Moondice and Sanctuaire from this race as they both look to be on winning ratings.
Al Ferof won the opening novice chase very easily and, in hindsight, odd-on at 5/6 was value punt as he probably should’ve started a lot shorter.
This time last year, I jumped on Gauvain after he won the same race last season, but I’ll not make the same mistake again. He’s peaked for the season.
At Fontwell, The Southern National went to Giles Cross who loves these long-distance chases having run 2nd in both the Welsh National and Eider chases last season. Once he led at 3-out, he was never going to be passed and he will probably go for the Welsh National again. Fortification was beaten by the 15lb hike for his previous win; and Rapid Increase ran out of stamina from 2-out. In 2nd was REY NACARADO, and this 6yo half-brother to Florida Pearl could be a huge improver this season.
There are two meetings today at Plumpton and Leicester.
The 4-runner novice chase at Plumpton (1:30) is a cracker of a race. The bookies are taking no chances with Notus De La Tour, but the chasing debutant KIND OF EASY a half-brother to the OR156 Glencove Marina could upset the applecart. Emma Lavelle has a very good record at Plumpton.
In the 2:30, FLAMING GEORGE has his 1st run for Paul Nicholls (his owners have moved this horse about a bit) and it should be a winning run. He jumps, and gets this trip; also he will appreciate the going.
AP McCoy rides at Leicester, and it is worth noting that of the 11 winners he’s ridden in November, only 1 has been supplied by his retaining trainer Jonjo O’Neill from 12 rides. In fact, that winner (Galaxy Rock) was the only winner – so far – O’Neill has had in November from 48 runners.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Leicester, so it looks like a blank day on the selection front.
Lastly, David Pipe is speculating that his crack novice chaser GRANDS CRUS may be entered in Saturdays Betfair Chase to meet the current holder of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Long Run. It may be a bit quick for the horse to meet such seasoned top campaigners but, if he’s good enough, then he should be in the race. In my opinion, there is not much between the top chasers Long Run, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, and even Midnight Chase is not out of it. If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence, we’d see a shake-up in the Gold Cup market then!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
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No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ perhaps I should have had a nibble as Viva Colonia managed to sneak 5th in the Greatwood and I wrote yesterday that he could sneak a place (Betfred and Tote were 50/1 and paid on 5 places). It was another tremendous ride from Harry Derham to win on Brampour, as he found the cleanest line round the tight home turn (far too tight a home bend in my opinion) to run out a clear winner.
Stablemate Sanctuaire took a wider line and may have finished closer but for being knocked sideways by the violent swerve from Moondice just before the final flight. The tight bend meant most in the leading group moved onto the stands rail and room there was tight (hence Brampour having the “cleanest” run to the line having stuck to the far side). I would take both Moondice and Sanctuaire from this race as they both look to be on winning ratings.
Al Ferof won the opening novice chase very easily and, in hindsight, odd-on at 5/6 was value punt as he probably should’ve started a lot shorter.
This time last year, I jumped on Gauvain after he won the same race last season, but I’ll not make the same mistake again. He’s peaked for the season.
At Fontwell, The Southern National went to Giles Cross who loves these long-distance chases having run 2nd in both the Welsh National and Eider chases last season. Once he led at 3-out, he was never going to be passed and he will probably go for the Welsh National again. Fortification was beaten by the 15lb hike for his previous win; and Rapid Increase ran out of stamina from 2-out. In 2nd was REY NACARADO, and this 6yo half-brother to Florida Pearl could be a huge improver this season.
There are two meetings today at Plumpton and Leicester.
The 4-runner novice chase at Plumpton (1:30) is a cracker of a race. The bookies are taking no chances with Notus De La Tour, but the chasing debutant KIND OF EASY a half-brother to the OR156 Glencove Marina could upset the applecart. Emma Lavelle has a very good record at Plumpton.
In the 2:30, FLAMING GEORGE has his 1st run for Paul Nicholls (his owners have moved this horse about a bit) and it should be a winning run. He jumps, and gets this trip; also he will appreciate the going.
AP McCoy rides at Leicester, and it is worth noting that of the 11 winners he’s ridden in November, only 1 has been supplied by his retaining trainer Jonjo O’Neill from 12 rides. In fact, that winner (Galaxy Rock) was the only winner – so far – O’Neill has had in November from 48 runners.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Leicester, so it looks like a blank day on the selection front.
Lastly, David Pipe is speculating that his crack novice chaser GRANDS CRUS may be entered in Saturdays Betfair Chase to meet the current holder of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Long Run. It may be a bit quick for the horse to meet such seasoned top campaigners but, if he’s good enough, then he should be in the race. In my opinion, there is not much between the top chasers Long Run, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, and even Midnight Chase is not out of it. If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence, we’d see a shake-up in the Gold Cup market then!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 13 November 2011
Fontwell hosts the Southern National
The 378th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Not the best of day’s for the blog yesterday – totally blown out of the water. All 3 selections were well beaten; another two mentioned could only finish in the places; and even one of my 3-2-Follow for the Season – WISHFUL THINKING – was stuffed.
That said, let’s take nothing away from GREAT ENDEAVOUR who won the Paddy Power with a tremendous display.
Onto today, and the opener this afternoon looks an interesting novice chase. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the past 3 years, and 5 times in the last 9 running’s, so Al Ferof must be respected – but at odds-on he should also be taken on; but with what? The Irish challenger DELPHI MOUNTAIN beat De Valira on his only chase run to date, and he looks better than 25/1 (Vic Chandler) and he should finish in the 1st-3.
It will be hard for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY to lose the 1:45 as he is easily the highest rated horse in the race, but his odds will not be value.
I am not even going to try and find a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle, tho’ VIVA COLONIA is not a 66/1 chance (Vic Chandler again), tho’ Betfred and Tote go 50/1 and pay on 5 places.
I also like the chance of PERPETUALLY in the hurdle at 2:55.
It is such a lovely day today, I should really be going to Fontwell and not taking the dogs for a walk. It is the Southern National there today and it will be a slog on soft going over the trip of 3m4f. It looks a cracker of a race with several old fav’s of mine running: Rapid Increase, Le Beau Bai, Aldertune, and recent winner Fortification. With both Le Beau Bai and Aldertune being very one-paced, it’s a toss-up between Fortification and Rapid Increase. Both will handle the going, both are race fit, and both will stay every yard. The bookies go 8/1 the field and I cannot split this pair.
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Not the best of day’s for the blog yesterday – totally blown out of the water. All 3 selections were well beaten; another two mentioned could only finish in the places; and even one of my 3-2-Follow for the Season – WISHFUL THINKING – was stuffed.
That said, let’s take nothing away from GREAT ENDEAVOUR who won the Paddy Power with a tremendous display.
Onto today, and the opener this afternoon looks an interesting novice chase. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the past 3 years, and 5 times in the last 9 running’s, so Al Ferof must be respected – but at odds-on he should also be taken on; but with what? The Irish challenger DELPHI MOUNTAIN beat De Valira on his only chase run to date, and he looks better than 25/1 (Vic Chandler) and he should finish in the 1st-3.
It will be hard for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY to lose the 1:45 as he is easily the highest rated horse in the race, but his odds will not be value.
I am not even going to try and find a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle, tho’ VIVA COLONIA is not a 66/1 chance (Vic Chandler again), tho’ Betfred and Tote go 50/1 and pay on 5 places.
I also like the chance of PERPETUALLY in the hurdle at 2:55.
It is such a lovely day today, I should really be going to Fontwell and not taking the dogs for a walk. It is the Southern National there today and it will be a slog on soft going over the trip of 3m4f. It looks a cracker of a race with several old fav’s of mine running: Rapid Increase, Le Beau Bai, Aldertune, and recent winner Fortification. With both Le Beau Bai and Aldertune being very one-paced, it’s a toss-up between Fortification and Rapid Increase. Both will handle the going, both are race fit, and both will stay every yard. The bookies go 8/1 the field and I cannot split this pair.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
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Saturday, 12 November 2011
Time to Loosen My Load
The 377th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday’s selection CRACK AWAY JACK was unplaced, but he did run a brave race in the circumstances. When travelling well, he hit the 3rd last fence hard and sustained a very bad cut. Even so, he battled-back to finish a close-up 5th. Without that error, I feel certain he would have finished very close to winning.
The performance of the day was from GRANDS CRUS and what a performance! He should be aimed at the Arkle in my opinion, as the RSA chase has proved a gruelling nightmare for some novice chasers, who have never recovered.
A great day today, and with 12 horses on my personal alert list running, I have a fair bit of sorting out to do. In the opener at Cheltenham, the Nichools and Henderson pair may head the market, but Alan King’s SECRET EDGE is the best juvenile in his stable – and he knows a thing or two about juvenile hurdlers.
The 1:55 looks another cracker of a race. The fav is Promising Anshan, who is on my alert list, but so is BALTHAZAR KING. I think Promising Anshan is a bit one-paced and he may find the going a bit quick today. He is undoubtedly well-handicapped as my respected tipping rival “The Prophet” in the Weekender has tipped him for this. But, for me BALTHAZAR KING should relish a return to Cheltenham where he’s won twice. Odds of 11/1 look fair value.
I looked at the Paddy Power (2:35) yesterday, and both of my two from my alert list (Noble Alan & Swincombe Rock) are out of the handicap. I expect them both to run well, but not win. WISHFUL THINKING is on my 3-to-follow list (see adjacent page) and at 8:30am he was 8/1 for 15mins. He should be in the 1st-3, but as Long Run showed last season, this race takes a light weight to win. For me it’s LOOSEN MY LOAD at 18/1 with Vic Chandler who goes a 3rd the odds ew the 1st-4.
At Uttoxeter, I think PRESENT TO YOU will prove hard to beat in the 2:40, but the value has been missed here. If you can get 11/4 or longer, then take it.
At Wetherby, the 2:55 is interesting. Vamizi last won off OR103 and since then he’s been 2nd 4 times and is now on OR121. He’s one-paced. I’m going to assume that WOLF MOON has been well-schooled for this as he comes into the race fit from a recent hurdle run. At 5/1, it’s not great value (was hoping for a bit longer) but this could be a weak race.
Selections
Cheltenham 1:55, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:35, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew @ 18/1 (Vic Chandler, 3rd odds 1,2,3,4)
Wetherby 2:55, WOLF MOON, 1pt win at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
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Remember!
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Yesterday’s selection CRACK AWAY JACK was unplaced, but he did run a brave race in the circumstances. When travelling well, he hit the 3rd last fence hard and sustained a very bad cut. Even so, he battled-back to finish a close-up 5th. Without that error, I feel certain he would have finished very close to winning.
The performance of the day was from GRANDS CRUS and what a performance! He should be aimed at the Arkle in my opinion, as the RSA chase has proved a gruelling nightmare for some novice chasers, who have never recovered.
A great day today, and with 12 horses on my personal alert list running, I have a fair bit of sorting out to do. In the opener at Cheltenham, the Nichools and Henderson pair may head the market, but Alan King’s SECRET EDGE is the best juvenile in his stable – and he knows a thing or two about juvenile hurdlers.
The 1:55 looks another cracker of a race. The fav is Promising Anshan, who is on my alert list, but so is BALTHAZAR KING. I think Promising Anshan is a bit one-paced and he may find the going a bit quick today. He is undoubtedly well-handicapped as my respected tipping rival “The Prophet” in the Weekender has tipped him for this. But, for me BALTHAZAR KING should relish a return to Cheltenham where he’s won twice. Odds of 11/1 look fair value.
I looked at the Paddy Power (2:35) yesterday, and both of my two from my alert list (Noble Alan & Swincombe Rock) are out of the handicap. I expect them both to run well, but not win. WISHFUL THINKING is on my 3-to-follow list (see adjacent page) and at 8:30am he was 8/1 for 15mins. He should be in the 1st-3, but as Long Run showed last season, this race takes a light weight to win. For me it’s LOOSEN MY LOAD at 18/1 with Vic Chandler who goes a 3rd the odds ew the 1st-4.
At Uttoxeter, I think PRESENT TO YOU will prove hard to beat in the 2:40, but the value has been missed here. If you can get 11/4 or longer, then take it.
At Wetherby, the 2:55 is interesting. Vamizi last won off OR103 and since then he’s been 2nd 4 times and is now on OR121. He’s one-paced. I’m going to assume that WOLF MOON has been well-schooled for this as he comes into the race fit from a recent hurdle run. At 5/1, it’s not great value (was hoping for a bit longer) but this could be a weak race.
Selections
Cheltenham 1:55, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:35, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew @ 18/1 (Vic Chandler, 3rd odds 1,2,3,4)
Wetherby 2:55, WOLF MOON, 1pt win at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
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Friday, 11 November 2011
Whip Crack Away!
The 376th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.
There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.
Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.
The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.
Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.
For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.
Selections
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
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I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.
There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.
Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.
The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.
Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.
For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.
Selections
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
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Thursday, 10 November 2011
AP McCoy & Henderson team-up at Ludlow
The 375th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday should have been another good day for the blog, but I overstepped my mark.
I was right on the button with THE KNOXS as I said he could be 16lb well-in, and he actually looked that and a bit more! At odds of 9/4 in the morning, he should have been the wager of the week. There are times when betting at odds under 3/1 can represent value, and this was one of them. I also side-stepped DREAM FUNCTION (a sister to Arkle winner Captain Chris) as I misread the “hype” behind the gamble on Swincombe Flame. The hype was misplaced and DREAM FUNCTION won in a canter at 2/1 having been 9/2 in the morning.
Instead of lumping-on those 2 winners, I opted to ride my luck on two others at longer odds.
BUFFALO BOB jumped like a stag, but he was harried for the lead by eventual runner-up Nicto de Beauchene and so was unable to dominate as he likes to. He won 2nd-time out last season, and he remains on my alert list. SANGFROID showed why betting in novice chases is risky business. He has not improved since his chase debut and was well-exposed yesterday, and is now on a losing run of 17 being distinctly one-paced.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS looked a natural over fences and won as he liked. It will take a good one to lower his colours this season.
There are meetings over the jumps at Ludlow and Taunton.
The h’cap chase at 2:00 at Ludlow is interesting. If Bold Perk can hold his jumping together then he will prove hard to beat, but that’s an “if”. For me, two horses stand-out: Nudge And Nurdle is much better going right-handed and he stays this trip well, especially on today’s going. Maraafeq is a C&D winner and when he won he had today’s top-weight Gentleman Anshan well behind. Trained by Venetia Williams, this is her only runner today and she loves sending chasers to Ludlow – 11 wins from 38 (+£30.53 to £1). Of the pair, I’d go for Nudge And Nurdle as he could be 5lb-plus well-in. The doubt is the jockey, 3lb claimer Tom Molloy who is best over hurdles.
All Nicky Henderson’s last 4 runners have won at odds of 15/8, 4/9, 3/1, & 100/30. When AP McCoy is in the saddle in a hurdle race, take note – they mean business. AP replaces Nigel Tinkler on DARK SHADOW in the 3:30 at Ludlow and they can upset the odds-on Forgotten Gold. Henderson had 5, 4-day entries in this race (which he won last season) and also sends Joseph Lister for his hurdle debut.
Nothing interests me at Taunton at all.
I will probably regret this, but I’m keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham’s meeting tomorrow and Saturday.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday should have been another good day for the blog, but I overstepped my mark.
I was right on the button with THE KNOXS as I said he could be 16lb well-in, and he actually looked that and a bit more! At odds of 9/4 in the morning, he should have been the wager of the week. There are times when betting at odds under 3/1 can represent value, and this was one of them. I also side-stepped DREAM FUNCTION (a sister to Arkle winner Captain Chris) as I misread the “hype” behind the gamble on Swincombe Flame. The hype was misplaced and DREAM FUNCTION won in a canter at 2/1 having been 9/2 in the morning.
Instead of lumping-on those 2 winners, I opted to ride my luck on two others at longer odds.
BUFFALO BOB jumped like a stag, but he was harried for the lead by eventual runner-up Nicto de Beauchene and so was unable to dominate as he likes to. He won 2nd-time out last season, and he remains on my alert list. SANGFROID showed why betting in novice chases is risky business. He has not improved since his chase debut and was well-exposed yesterday, and is now on a losing run of 17 being distinctly one-paced.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS looked a natural over fences and won as he liked. It will take a good one to lower his colours this season.
There are meetings over the jumps at Ludlow and Taunton.
The h’cap chase at 2:00 at Ludlow is interesting. If Bold Perk can hold his jumping together then he will prove hard to beat, but that’s an “if”. For me, two horses stand-out: Nudge And Nurdle is much better going right-handed and he stays this trip well, especially on today’s going. Maraafeq is a C&D winner and when he won he had today’s top-weight Gentleman Anshan well behind. Trained by Venetia Williams, this is her only runner today and she loves sending chasers to Ludlow – 11 wins from 38 (+£30.53 to £1). Of the pair, I’d go for Nudge And Nurdle as he could be 5lb-plus well-in. The doubt is the jockey, 3lb claimer Tom Molloy who is best over hurdles.
All Nicky Henderson’s last 4 runners have won at odds of 15/8, 4/9, 3/1, & 100/30. When AP McCoy is in the saddle in a hurdle race, take note – they mean business. AP replaces Nigel Tinkler on DARK SHADOW in the 3:30 at Ludlow and they can upset the odds-on Forgotten Gold. Henderson had 5, 4-day entries in this race (which he won last season) and also sends Joseph Lister for his hurdle debut.
Nothing interests me at Taunton at all.
I will probably regret this, but I’m keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham’s meeting tomorrow and Saturday.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 9 November 2011
GOING WRONG another winner at 4/1
The 374th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Another great result for the blog yesterday, when sole selection GOING WRONG won at 4/1 giving me a great birthday present. Admittedly, the result could have been fortunate, as the fav and clear leader Flinty Bay lost his rider with a mistake at the 2nd-last fence. However, my reason for selecting GOING WRONG was that he would stay the 2m4f trip and that could not be said for Flinty Bay. Horses make mistakes when they are tired, and Flinty Bay has not shown any form beyond 2m1f and has lost his rider (thru’ mistakes) on both attempts at further. My feeling is that even if Flinty Bay had not fallen, he would have slowed to a crawl in the final quarter-mile. Whatever, another 4pts profit for the blog.
Next, an apology and a rectification of a mistake.
I have tried to apply an email service to my blog so that readers will have the blog automatically emailed to them (by Blogger) when it is posted online. Unfortunately, altho’ the emails do go out there is no control over what time they are sent and users of the service received the email on Monday at 11pm at night! As delivery cannot be guaranteed, I have pulled the service. If anyone can recommend an application that would work, please leave a link in the comments box. I always post my selections on Betting League (see adjacent link) when I post the blog. I also use Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) were I go by the moniker “Quaestor”. Both these services are free and send out my selections via email the moment they are posted.
Yesterday, I said that my 2pt selections for the past 12 months were 7 winners from 11 selections; that was wrong. It should read 7 winners from 12 selections. The profit is therefore 35.50pts from 24pts staked – that’s a 148% return on investment.
We have a couple of decent meetings at Exeter and Bangor today. There is an interesting hurdle at 1:50 with some useful types contesting. THE KNOXS looks well-in here as he beat OR148 Wymott at level-weights over 3-mile in Jan 2010. As such, running off OR132 today, he could be 16lb well-in. He’ll stay today’s trip, and he’s won on good-to-soft . He’s currently 9/4 which is tight, but then I reckon he could start a lot shorter, perhaps 7/4.
Now, I’m not one for novice chases, but the 2:20 at Exeter looks like an opportunity. Market leader Golden Chieftain makes his chase debut today, and he may have been good point-to-point horse, but this will be a different test today. Our Island should improve for his chase debut, as will Five Star Wilsham, but it is SANGFROID who catches my eye. He was 3rd LTO, having been squeezed for room and losing momentum and was beaten only a length – yet the 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race have all won since. At 9/1 he looks a worthy wager.
At 3:50, DREAM FUNCTION, a sister to Captain Chris (Arkle winner 2011) won LTO and had 2 x NTOW’s behind. She looks well-in here, altho’ there has been a market move already this morning for Swincombe Flame. I cannot see here finishing out of the 1st-3.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS makes his chase debut and I sincerely hope the horse does well as he’s a favourite of mine. The highlight of that meeting tho’ is the 3-mile chase at 2:10 which has been won by some cracking horses in the recent past. Whatever wins today must go into the notebook. BUFFALO BOB was 2nd in the race last season and then won NTO. As such, he comes here today on a 6lb higher rating than he had last season. Dance Island is an interesting top-weight as he clearly has potential, but I wonder if he is a weight-carrier as his form tails off quickly when he carries more than 11st 4lb – is he a small horse? BUFFALO BOB at 13/2 looks worthy of a wager.
Selections:
Bangor 2:10, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, BOG)
Exeter 2:20, SANGFROID, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Another great result for the blog yesterday, when sole selection GOING WRONG won at 4/1 giving me a great birthday present. Admittedly, the result could have been fortunate, as the fav and clear leader Flinty Bay lost his rider with a mistake at the 2nd-last fence. However, my reason for selecting GOING WRONG was that he would stay the 2m4f trip and that could not be said for Flinty Bay. Horses make mistakes when they are tired, and Flinty Bay has not shown any form beyond 2m1f and has lost his rider (thru’ mistakes) on both attempts at further. My feeling is that even if Flinty Bay had not fallen, he would have slowed to a crawl in the final quarter-mile. Whatever, another 4pts profit for the blog.
Next, an apology and a rectification of a mistake.
I have tried to apply an email service to my blog so that readers will have the blog automatically emailed to them (by Blogger) when it is posted online. Unfortunately, altho’ the emails do go out there is no control over what time they are sent and users of the service received the email on Monday at 11pm at night! As delivery cannot be guaranteed, I have pulled the service. If anyone can recommend an application that would work, please leave a link in the comments box. I always post my selections on Betting League (see adjacent link) when I post the blog. I also use Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) were I go by the moniker “Quaestor”. Both these services are free and send out my selections via email the moment they are posted.
Yesterday, I said that my 2pt selections for the past 12 months were 7 winners from 11 selections; that was wrong. It should read 7 winners from 12 selections. The profit is therefore 35.50pts from 24pts staked – that’s a 148% return on investment.
We have a couple of decent meetings at Exeter and Bangor today. There is an interesting hurdle at 1:50 with some useful types contesting. THE KNOXS looks well-in here as he beat OR148 Wymott at level-weights over 3-mile in Jan 2010. As such, running off OR132 today, he could be 16lb well-in. He’ll stay today’s trip, and he’s won on good-to-soft . He’s currently 9/4 which is tight, but then I reckon he could start a lot shorter, perhaps 7/4.
Now, I’m not one for novice chases, but the 2:20 at Exeter looks like an opportunity. Market leader Golden Chieftain makes his chase debut today, and he may have been good point-to-point horse, but this will be a different test today. Our Island should improve for his chase debut, as will Five Star Wilsham, but it is SANGFROID who catches my eye. He was 3rd LTO, having been squeezed for room and losing momentum and was beaten only a length – yet the 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race have all won since. At 9/1 he looks a worthy wager.
At 3:50, DREAM FUNCTION, a sister to Captain Chris (Arkle winner 2011) won LTO and had 2 x NTOW’s behind. She looks well-in here, altho’ there has been a market move already this morning for Swincombe Flame. I cannot see here finishing out of the 1st-3.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS makes his chase debut and I sincerely hope the horse does well as he’s a favourite of mine. The highlight of that meeting tho’ is the 3-mile chase at 2:10 which has been won by some cracking horses in the recent past. Whatever wins today must go into the notebook. BUFFALO BOB was 2nd in the race last season and then won NTO. As such, he comes here today on a 6lb higher rating than he had last season. Dance Island is an interesting top-weight as he clearly has potential, but I wonder if he is a weight-carrier as his form tails off quickly when he carries more than 11st 4lb – is he a small horse? BUFFALO BOB at 13/2 looks worthy of a wager.
Selections:
Bangor 2:10, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, BOG)
Exeter 2:20, SANGFROID, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 8 November 2011
Two winners y'day at 4/1 and 7/2, & potential 170% ROI
The 373rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
What a cracking set of results for the blog yesterday.
Just 3 selections and 2 winners, YOU KNOW YOURSELF was advised at 4/1 and won well at an SP of 11/4, and SARANDO romped home at 7/2 (wager advised with Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed).
I also advised taking the 40/1 on SARANDO for the Hennessey – did you? The best odds available this morning are 20/1, and trainer Paul Webber said afterwards. "We'll certainly have to look at the Hennessy now. I think he'll get into that with a 4lb penalty and I'd like to think there's still a bit of improvement in him”.
So, from 4pts staked we collected 10pts profit.
Also, I’ve been back thru’ my records and since 1st November 2010 when I started recording all my selections on the blog, I have made 11 x 2pt win selections, and 7 of them have won! They have recorded a 37.50pt profit from 22pts staked – that’s a 170% return on investment.
First, a plug for a great website if you are entering in the Tote Ten-To-Follow competition. You must visit Peter Martins site that is dedicated to the competition, the link is adjacent. Peter has been running this site for 14 years and it certainly makes putting together a shortlist so much easier. So do yourself a favour and visit http://www.petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm
As it’s my birthday today, I was hoping to go racing at Lingfield, but the meeting looks a poor one and there’s nothing there of interest to me.
Huntingdon is not much better. The h’cap hurdle at 3:20 could be a race to take an interest in. There has been a move for the fav Right Stuff who won his 1st hurdle at his 12th attempt LTO. He is 13/8 at best, which seems incredibly skinny for a horse that barely gats 2-mile and the extra 110 yards of today’s race could well find him out. Spectait has not seen a hurdle since October 2008, and won in some style a year earlier at Aintree – his sole hurdle win from 4 starts. He will be fit from a busy flat campaign, but he’s 15lb off his best on the flat now, and OR109 could be a bit high for him today. I’d go for Tayarat who won over C&D LTO, but his jockey has only 2 wins from 45 career rides so he does not exude confidence. I want to oppose the fav, but the only horse that looks capable of running well enough to beat him is KING OZZY who is the only runner today for Lawney Hill. He will enjoy the going and, being a prominent runner, should enjoy the pace set by Tayarat. He is a better hurdler than chaser, as he’s not looked comfortable in that sphere and he will have stamina at the business end having won at 2m3f. There is also money this morning for Break The Chain, so I won’t be recommending a wager in this race, tho’ I think Right Stuff is more of a 7/2 chance than 13/8.
At Sedgefield, the 2m4f Novices h’cap chase looks interesting. One from my alert list last season runs in GOING WRONG. He was off for nearly 2-years with a broken pelvis, so was certainly ring-rusty on his return LTO. He ran well for a long way over a trip (2-mile) much too short for him, and the extra half-mile today will be in his favour. I reckon he was capable of OR145 as a hurdler, so running off OR127 today is another bonus. The form of that last race has worked out well (if not brilliant) with the 2nd and 3rd both being beaten by very decent looking horses yesterday. None in this field, other than GOING WRONG, look like they’ll appreciate this trip, so odds of 3/1 look generous. On a line thru’ The Cockney Mackem, there is nothing separating Quite The Man and Flinty Bay, yet the latter is 5/2 and Quite The Man is at 7/1. My selection is GOING WRONG, but I will also have a straight forecast including Quite The Man.
Selections:
Sedgefield 2:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
What a cracking set of results for the blog yesterday.
Just 3 selections and 2 winners, YOU KNOW YOURSELF was advised at 4/1 and won well at an SP of 11/4, and SARANDO romped home at 7/2 (wager advised with Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed).
I also advised taking the 40/1 on SARANDO for the Hennessey – did you? The best odds available this morning are 20/1, and trainer Paul Webber said afterwards. "We'll certainly have to look at the Hennessy now. I think he'll get into that with a 4lb penalty and I'd like to think there's still a bit of improvement in him”.
So, from 4pts staked we collected 10pts profit.
Also, I’ve been back thru’ my records and since 1st November 2010 when I started recording all my selections on the blog, I have made 11 x 2pt win selections, and 7 of them have won! They have recorded a 37.50pt profit from 22pts staked – that’s a 170% return on investment.
First, a plug for a great website if you are entering in the Tote Ten-To-Follow competition. You must visit Peter Martins site that is dedicated to the competition, the link is adjacent. Peter has been running this site for 14 years and it certainly makes putting together a shortlist so much easier. So do yourself a favour and visit http://www.petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm
As it’s my birthday today, I was hoping to go racing at Lingfield, but the meeting looks a poor one and there’s nothing there of interest to me.
Huntingdon is not much better. The h’cap hurdle at 3:20 could be a race to take an interest in. There has been a move for the fav Right Stuff who won his 1st hurdle at his 12th attempt LTO. He is 13/8 at best, which seems incredibly skinny for a horse that barely gats 2-mile and the extra 110 yards of today’s race could well find him out. Spectait has not seen a hurdle since October 2008, and won in some style a year earlier at Aintree – his sole hurdle win from 4 starts. He will be fit from a busy flat campaign, but he’s 15lb off his best on the flat now, and OR109 could be a bit high for him today. I’d go for Tayarat who won over C&D LTO, but his jockey has only 2 wins from 45 career rides so he does not exude confidence. I want to oppose the fav, but the only horse that looks capable of running well enough to beat him is KING OZZY who is the only runner today for Lawney Hill. He will enjoy the going and, being a prominent runner, should enjoy the pace set by Tayarat. He is a better hurdler than chaser, as he’s not looked comfortable in that sphere and he will have stamina at the business end having won at 2m3f. There is also money this morning for Break The Chain, so I won’t be recommending a wager in this race, tho’ I think Right Stuff is more of a 7/2 chance than 13/8.
At Sedgefield, the 2m4f Novices h’cap chase looks interesting. One from my alert list last season runs in GOING WRONG. He was off for nearly 2-years with a broken pelvis, so was certainly ring-rusty on his return LTO. He ran well for a long way over a trip (2-mile) much too short for him, and the extra half-mile today will be in his favour. I reckon he was capable of OR145 as a hurdler, so running off OR127 today is another bonus. The form of that last race has worked out well (if not brilliant) with the 2nd and 3rd both being beaten by very decent looking horses yesterday. None in this field, other than GOING WRONG, look like they’ll appreciate this trip, so odds of 3/1 look generous. On a line thru’ The Cockney Mackem, there is nothing separating Quite The Man and Flinty Bay, yet the latter is 5/2 and Quite The Man is at 7/1. My selection is GOING WRONG, but I will also have a straight forecast including Quite The Man.
Selections:
Sedgefield 2:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 7 November 2011
Take 40/1 about SARANDO for Hennessey today
The 372nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No blog from me over the weekend as I was in Cornwall seeing my 9yo son. The drive down there on Friday was horrendous, as the rain was terrible. The weekend weather in Penzance was good tho’, with clear skies and some sunshine.
There is some good winter jumps racing today, and hopefully I will find a winner of two. Currently, I am back to full-time blog writing and playing the horses to make ends meet, so there should be an increase in depth to the blogs.
At Carlisle, it is hard to see BOLD SIR BRIAN being beaten in the opening race at 12:50, but he’s not for me at odds-on 4/7 and shorter. A horse that has beaten my wager a couple of times runs in the 1:55 – YOU KNOW YOURSELF. Trainer Sue Smith was someone who I expected to take advantage of the “gap” left by trainer Howard Johnson’s “retirement”, and she’s hit form this last fortnight. Her speciality is chasers and YOU KNOW YOURSELF has a bit of quality about him and he also has the ground he loves, good-to-soft (3 wins from 6 runs). He’s lightly raced for an 8yo and I think he’ll show the fav The Magic Bishop, how it’s done today. Odds of 4/1 look fair, and some bookies are giving sporadic bits of 9/2.
There is an excellent Class 2 “graduation” chase at 2:55 that will be well worth paying attention to. It will be a tough initiation to chasing for the decent staying hurdler Cross Kennon and, at 3m & 110 yards, I think it will be a stiff test of stamina for Aikman. As such, the door is open for SARANDO who comes here with the benefit of a run on the flat 17-days ago to take the race. I highly rate this horse who I think is on a very lenient mark of OR149 given he ran QUITO DE LA ROQUE close at level weights at this trip at Aintree last April and that horse has won 2 Grade 1 chases since including beating Sizing Europe on Saturday. Odds of 2/1 look very generous as I’d have him odds-on at 4/5 for this. He is 40/1 with Ladbrokes for the Hennessey and he’ll likely run off 10st 6lb for that race, but if he wins today those odds will halve. You have been advised!
At Hereford, an old friend of mine runs in JUSTABOUT in the 3:10. This is just the sort of race that I avoid, having 5 runners and all have a chance on the formbook. It is an earlier race that takes my eye here, the 2:15 a “claiming” hurdle over 3m & 110 yards. David Pipe’s American Art makes a long trip for this race, but he does not look reliable despite having won his last 4. American Cricket also won LTO, but he is another I’d not want to take a short price on. Interestingly, Peter Bowen (who also makes a long trip here) sends KRISTALLO back to hurdles after 3 poor runs when chasing. He won over C&D in August and ran well again 7-days later off OR109. The 8lb he gets from the OR119 rated American Art means he should be in with a better than 6/1 chance for this on ground he likes.
Selections:
Carlisle 1:55, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Southwell 2:15, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Carlisle 2:55, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 2/1 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No blog from me over the weekend as I was in Cornwall seeing my 9yo son. The drive down there on Friday was horrendous, as the rain was terrible. The weekend weather in Penzance was good tho’, with clear skies and some sunshine.
There is some good winter jumps racing today, and hopefully I will find a winner of two. Currently, I am back to full-time blog writing and playing the horses to make ends meet, so there should be an increase in depth to the blogs.
At Carlisle, it is hard to see BOLD SIR BRIAN being beaten in the opening race at 12:50, but he’s not for me at odds-on 4/7 and shorter. A horse that has beaten my wager a couple of times runs in the 1:55 – YOU KNOW YOURSELF. Trainer Sue Smith was someone who I expected to take advantage of the “gap” left by trainer Howard Johnson’s “retirement”, and she’s hit form this last fortnight. Her speciality is chasers and YOU KNOW YOURSELF has a bit of quality about him and he also has the ground he loves, good-to-soft (3 wins from 6 runs). He’s lightly raced for an 8yo and I think he’ll show the fav The Magic Bishop, how it’s done today. Odds of 4/1 look fair, and some bookies are giving sporadic bits of 9/2.
There is an excellent Class 2 “graduation” chase at 2:55 that will be well worth paying attention to. It will be a tough initiation to chasing for the decent staying hurdler Cross Kennon and, at 3m & 110 yards, I think it will be a stiff test of stamina for Aikman. As such, the door is open for SARANDO who comes here with the benefit of a run on the flat 17-days ago to take the race. I highly rate this horse who I think is on a very lenient mark of OR149 given he ran QUITO DE LA ROQUE close at level weights at this trip at Aintree last April and that horse has won 2 Grade 1 chases since including beating Sizing Europe on Saturday. Odds of 2/1 look very generous as I’d have him odds-on at 4/5 for this. He is 40/1 with Ladbrokes for the Hennessey and he’ll likely run off 10st 6lb for that race, but if he wins today those odds will halve. You have been advised!
At Hereford, an old friend of mine runs in JUSTABOUT in the 3:10. This is just the sort of race that I avoid, having 5 runners and all have a chance on the formbook. It is an earlier race that takes my eye here, the 2:15 a “claiming” hurdle over 3m & 110 yards. David Pipe’s American Art makes a long trip for this race, but he does not look reliable despite having won his last 4. American Cricket also won LTO, but he is another I’d not want to take a short price on. Interestingly, Peter Bowen (who also makes a long trip here) sends KRISTALLO back to hurdles after 3 poor runs when chasing. He won over C&D in August and ran well again 7-days later off OR109. The 8lb he gets from the OR119 rated American Art means he should be in with a better than 6/1 chance for this on ground he likes.
Selections:
Carlisle 1:55, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Southwell 2:15, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Carlisle 2:55, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 2/1 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 4 November 2011
Disappointing Friday racing
The 371st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No blog for the last couple of days. Personal life has been a bit busy and, as I’m driving to Cornwall (setting off at 6am) on Friday morning, it’s going to be a full weekend. So, when you read this I'll be somewhere on the A30.
On Tuesday I had a “maximum” wager of 2pts on GHIZAO and I was disappointed with the performance from him. I reckon most followers of jumps racing now expect horses from Paul Nicholls stable to arrive at the track fit and ready to run to their peak. My opinion of GHIZAO was that it was an “exploratory” run. He wasn’t jumping well over the 1st-4 fences, but in the 2nd half of the race he jumped admirably . The pace of the race in my opinion was not strong, so all the main contenders were still in with a chance approaching the 3rd-last fence. GHIZAO tho’ just plodded-on. He wasn’t far off the leader at the line, but that’s probably ‘cause CAPTAIN CHRIS fell at the final fence with the race at his mercy. It was not a satisfactory race as it left questions unanswered. But we know that CAPTAIN CHRIS is much better than his OR160 rating as he picked-up the leaders easily before the final fence, responding well to a couple of applications of the whip. As for GHIZAO, he has potential but he needs to learn to jump, and quickly, before his confidence is irreparably damaged.
A couple of ordinary jumps meetings on Friday as the focus of attention in the horseracing world is on Churchill Downs and the Breeders Cup. At Fontwell, it would be no surprise if the heavy rain suffered in the south turns toe going from soft to heavy. As such, I’ll avoid this meeting.
I have gone thru’ every race at Hexham and nothing excites me there – very disappointing fare.
I will be watching the Breeders Cup meeting, but won’t be having a wager on Friday evenings races.
Next week I’ll be looking at making an entry in the Ten-to-Follow competition run by the Racing Post, and I’ll be trying to come up with a useful shortlist. I’ve put a link to a website run by a fan of the competition – Peter Martin – and it’s a site I’ve used for about 8 years. If you are going to attempt the competition, this site is a “must visit”.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No blog for the last couple of days. Personal life has been a bit busy and, as I’m driving to Cornwall (setting off at 6am) on Friday morning, it’s going to be a full weekend. So, when you read this I'll be somewhere on the A30.
On Tuesday I had a “maximum” wager of 2pts on GHIZAO and I was disappointed with the performance from him. I reckon most followers of jumps racing now expect horses from Paul Nicholls stable to arrive at the track fit and ready to run to their peak. My opinion of GHIZAO was that it was an “exploratory” run. He wasn’t jumping well over the 1st-4 fences, but in the 2nd half of the race he jumped admirably . The pace of the race in my opinion was not strong, so all the main contenders were still in with a chance approaching the 3rd-last fence. GHIZAO tho’ just plodded-on. He wasn’t far off the leader at the line, but that’s probably ‘cause CAPTAIN CHRIS fell at the final fence with the race at his mercy. It was not a satisfactory race as it left questions unanswered. But we know that CAPTAIN CHRIS is much better than his OR160 rating as he picked-up the leaders easily before the final fence, responding well to a couple of applications of the whip. As for GHIZAO, he has potential but he needs to learn to jump, and quickly, before his confidence is irreparably damaged.
A couple of ordinary jumps meetings on Friday as the focus of attention in the horseracing world is on Churchill Downs and the Breeders Cup. At Fontwell, it would be no surprise if the heavy rain suffered in the south turns toe going from soft to heavy. As such, I’ll avoid this meeting.
I have gone thru’ every race at Hexham and nothing excites me there – very disappointing fare.
I will be watching the Breeders Cup meeting, but won’t be having a wager on Friday evenings races.
Next week I’ll be looking at making an entry in the Ten-to-Follow competition run by the Racing Post, and I’ll be trying to come up with a useful shortlist. I’ve put a link to a website run by a fan of the competition – Peter Martin – and it’s a site I’ve used for about 8 years. If you are going to attempt the competition, this site is a “must visit”.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 1 November 2011
GHIZAO to repay faith
The 370th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
We have one of the crucial days of the jumps season with the Haldon Gold Cup being run at Exeter. It is crucial as it sees the first meeting of some of the better novices of the previous season against some of the older horses.
This year we have a classic race in prospect but not due to a clash of the generations, more a rematch of the cream of last season’s novice chasers. The going could be the biggest factor in finding the winner of this race. On known winning form, the “good” going points firmly towards the fav last season’s Arkle winner Captain Chris. However, the going should be similar to that encountered by GHIZAO at Aintree last April and on that day GHIZAO did not look inconvenienced. I’m expecting that GHIZAO will be fully schooled for this encounter and it must be remembered that on 2 occasions he has been superior to Captain Chris over fences including when they met at Newbury over a trip a furlong further than this when GHIZAO gave Captain Chris 10lb and a 4-length beating. At 11/4, GHIZAO looks value as I’d have him more like 2/1. As I have already nominated the horse as one of my 3-to-follow, my colours are firmly fastened to his post, and I’m on. A win for GHIZAO will see the odds of 18/1 offered by the Tote and Betfred for the Queen Mother Champion Chase quickly disappear (the 20’s available when I nominated GHIZAO last week have already gone). As such, I would suggest than you have a small antepost wager on the horse before the Haldon Gold Cup is run.
Exeter 2:50, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes , best odds guaranteed)
Antepost wager on the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 2012
GHIZAO, ¼pt eachway @ 18/1 (Betfred or Tote) quarter-odds a place 1,2,3.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
We have one of the crucial days of the jumps season with the Haldon Gold Cup being run at Exeter. It is crucial as it sees the first meeting of some of the better novices of the previous season against some of the older horses.
This year we have a classic race in prospect but not due to a clash of the generations, more a rematch of the cream of last season’s novice chasers. The going could be the biggest factor in finding the winner of this race. On known winning form, the “good” going points firmly towards the fav last season’s Arkle winner Captain Chris. However, the going should be similar to that encountered by GHIZAO at Aintree last April and on that day GHIZAO did not look inconvenienced. I’m expecting that GHIZAO will be fully schooled for this encounter and it must be remembered that on 2 occasions he has been superior to Captain Chris over fences including when they met at Newbury over a trip a furlong further than this when GHIZAO gave Captain Chris 10lb and a 4-length beating. At 11/4, GHIZAO looks value as I’d have him more like 2/1. As I have already nominated the horse as one of my 3-to-follow, my colours are firmly fastened to his post, and I’m on. A win for GHIZAO will see the odds of 18/1 offered by the Tote and Betfred for the Queen Mother Champion Chase quickly disappear (the 20’s available when I nominated GHIZAO last week have already gone). As such, I would suggest than you have a small antepost wager on the horse before the Haldon Gold Cup is run.
Exeter 2:50, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes , best odds guaranteed)
Antepost wager on the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 2012
GHIZAO, ¼pt eachway @ 18/1 (Betfred or Tote) quarter-odds a place 1,2,3.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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