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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 9 July 2010

Bunbury Cup 40/1 special

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing
I was looking at my record of wagers over the past 10 weeks that I’ve posted up on the blog, and it seems that when I post up 1 or 2 selections that my win-rate is higher than when I post up 3+ selections. That’s how it was yesterday, with 3 losing selections from 3 advised wagers, costing the blog 4pts. The main selection, HOLBERG was very disappointing; no tactical speed and one-paced. Only consolation for me was noting the Noseda horse Sans Frontieres, which was his only runner yesterday – he’s now had 4 wins and 3 placed from just 8 runners in past 8-days. HEAR THE ROAR was the subject of a major market move from 3/1 in to 15/8. He did not handle the Epsom track yet, when he got balanced, he took nearly 3-lengths off the eventual winner to go down by just a neck. He can recoup this loss next time. It was a similar story for HAND PAINTED who was full of running in 4th behind the leading trio but could not find a way thru’. He is another who will recoup this loss next time.

Today’s Racing Selections
What is going on with the race-planners at the Jockey Club? Last week, the racing available was plain awful, class 5’s and 6’s everywhere. Today, we have the climax of the July Meeting at Newmarket with the Group 1 July Cup, plus what was the Bunbury Cup (Class 2 h’cap), with other h’caps over 12f at Class 3 and a mile at Class 2. Then, there is a meeting at York which has a 12f h’cap at Class 2. At Ascot, there is a meeting (again in the afternoon) with a Class 3 h’cap at a mile. Going into the evening, there is a meeting at Chester and another in the South at Newbury, and a third at Chepstow in Wales. Why have 6 meetings at premier tracks – 2 separated by less than 20 miles – on a Friday, with top handicaps clashing in trip and class? Are there enough racing staff and, more the point, enough paying customers?

With so much racing, you have to focus on a particular race to find a winner. As such, I’ve only looked at one race and that’s the Bunbury Cup (or 32Red Trophy) at 3:25 at Newmarket. If you think the fav St Moritz is a 7/1 chance, what about DUBAI DYNAMO which beat him by a head on 28th May and is now only 2lbs worse off - yet is 40/1. Trainer, Mrs Carr, has only had a single runner at Newmarket (July) before, and only a single runner on the Rowley mile course which was DUBAI DYNAMO when it beat St Moritz. This is Mrs Carr's only runner today. So, she knows what it takes to get a horse to win at Newmarket. As for DD, it missed most of 2009, but has had come back from an injury and is now only just above the rating it started its 3yo season at (OR96 then, OR99 today) after winning the 2yo trophy at Redcar. It loves good-to-firm and it'll stay a mile. Has a cracking middle draw and Hayley Turner handles him well. I reckon should be no more than 16/1. Must be an each-way selection.

Newmarket 3:25 DUBAI DYNAMO, 0.5pts win @ 40/1
Total = 1pt staked

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